{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/alakazam-ex-151-value", "slug": "alakazam-ex-151-value", "title": "Alakazam ex 201/165 Value: the PSA 9 Sells for Less", "summary": "The 151 special illustration rare asks $74.50 and its PSA 9 sold median is $72.00. On a 40,265-slab registry the nine is worth less than the ungraded card.", "section": "Card study", "published": "2026-09-23", "readMinutes": 9, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "$72.00", "measures": "PSA 9 sold median, 285 verified sales", "basis": "3.36% below the $74.50 raw ask on September 23 2026" }, { "value": "40,265", "measures": "PSA submissions on an unshared registry line", "basis": "11,560 tens, read September 22 2026" }, { "value": "44.0%", "measures": "of deeply graded cards price the PSA 9 below the raw", "basis": "22 of the 50 cohort members with 40,000+ slabs" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Alakazam ex 201/165 graded ladder, read September 23 2026", "columns": [ "Grade", "Sold median", "Verified sales", "Multiple of the raw ask" ], "rows": [ { "Grade": "PSA 10", "Sold median": "$319.82", "Verified sales": "241", "Multiple of the raw ask": "4.29x" }, { "Grade": "BGS 9.5", "Sold median": "$195.00", "Verified sales": "6", "Multiple of the raw ask": "2.62x" }, { "Grade": "CGC 10", "Sold median": "$107.75", "Verified sales": "43", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.45x" }, { "Grade": "BGS 9", "Sold median": "$75.50", "Verified sales": "8", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.01x" }, { "Grade": "Raw (ask, not a sale)", "Sold median": "$74.50", "Verified sales": "n/a", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.00x" }, { "Grade": "PSA 9", "Sold median": "$72.00", "Verified sales": "285", "Multiple of the raw ask": "0.97x" }, { "Grade": "CGC 9.5", "Sold median": "$72.00", "Verified sales": "8", "Multiple of the raw ask": "0.97x" }, { "Grade": "CGC 9", "Sold median": "$52.05", "Verified sales": "11", "Multiple of the raw ask": "0.70x" } ] }, { "title": "PSA 9 sold median against raw ask, by registry depth, 4,696 products, September 23 2026", "columns": [ "Registry line", "Products", "PSA 9 below the ask", "Share", "Median PSA 9 / ask", "Median ask" ], "rows": [ { "Registry line": "Under 1,000", "Products": "2,307", "PSA 9 below the ask": "106", "Share": "4.6%", "Median PSA 9 / ask": "3.67x", "Median ask": "$11.07" }, { "Registry line": "1,000 to 4,999", "Products": "1,572", "PSA 9 below the ask": "192", "Share": "12.2%", "Median PSA 9 / ask": "2.51x", "Median ask": "$20.73" }, { "Registry line": "5,000 to 19,999", "Products": "632", "PSA 9 below the ask": "186", "Share": "29.4%", "Median PSA 9 / ask": "1.34x", "Median ask": "$45.87" }, { "Registry line": "20,000 to 39,999", "Products": "135", "PSA 9 below the ask": "53", "Share": "39.3%", "Median PSA 9 / ask": "1.10x", "Median ask": "$65.98" }, { "Registry line": "40,000 or more", "Products": "50", "PSA 9 below the ask": "22", "Share": "44.0%", "Median PSA 9 / ask": "1.03x", "Median ask": "$88.64" } ] }, { "title": "All seven special illustration rares in 151, by raw ask, September 23 2026", "columns": [ "Card", "Number", "Raw ask", "PSA 9 sold", "PSA 9 sales", "PSA 9 / ask", "PSA 10 sold", "Registry", "Gem rate" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Charizard ex](/card/sv03.5-199)", "Number": "199/165", "Raw ask": "$358.35", "PSA 9 sold": "$367.50", "PSA 9 sales": "486", "PSA 9 / ask": "1.03x", "PSA 10 sold": "$1,400.00", "Registry": "104,242", "Gem rate": "27.4%" }, { "Card": "[Blastoise ex](/card/sv03.5-200)", "Number": "200/165", "Raw ask": "$133.99", "PSA 9 sold": "$142.50", "PSA 9 sales": "439", "PSA 9 / ask": "1.06x", "PSA 10 sold": "$497.50", "Registry": "63,622", "Gem rate": "29.7%" }, { "Card": "[Venusaur ex](/card/sv03.5-198)", "Number": "198/165", "Raw ask": "$114.37", "PSA 9 sold": "$117.00", "PSA 9 sales": "354", "PSA 9 / ask": "1.02x", "PSA 10 sold": "$409.50", "Registry": "56,703", "Gem rate": "28.8%" }, { "Card": "[Zapdos ex](/card/sv03.5-202)", "Number": "202/165", "Raw ask": "$88.64", "PSA 9 sold": "$99.50", "PSA 9 sales": "344", "PSA 9 / ask": "1.12x", "PSA 10 sold": "$386.00", "Registry": "49,372", "Gem rate": "28.6%" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam ex](/card/sv03.5-201)", "Number": "201/165", "Raw ask": "$74.50", "PSA 9 sold": "$72.00", "PSA 9 sales": "285", "PSA 9 / ask": "0.97x", "PSA 10 sold": "$319.82", "Registry": "40,265", "Gem rate": "28.7%" }, { "Card": "[Erika's Invitation](/card/sv03.5-203)", "Number": "203/165", "Raw ask": "$15.17", "PSA 9 sold": "$30.87", "PSA 9 sales": "112", "PSA 9 / ask": "2.03x", "PSA 10 sold": "$99.05", "Registry": "17,906", "Gem rate": "27.6%" }, { "Card": "[Giovanni's Charisma](/card/sv03.5-204)", "Number": "204/165", "Raw ask": "$15.09", "PSA 9 sold": "$21.50", "PSA 9 sales": "101", "PSA 9 / ask": "1.42x", "PSA 10 sold": "$161.75", "Registry": "13,231", "Gem rate": "26.5%" } ] }, { "title": "Alakazam ex 201/165 against the 5,879-product graded-ladder cohort", "columns": [ "Measure", "This card", "Cohort median", "Percentile", "Rank" ], "rows": [ { "Measure": "PSA registry line", "This card": "40,265", "Cohort median": "822", "Percentile": "99.1", "Rank": "51 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "Verified PSA 10 sales", "This card": "241", "Cohort median": "14", "Percentile": "94.4", "Rank": "328 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "Raw ask", "This card": "$74.50", "Cohort median": "$18.93", "Percentile": "81.3", "Rank": "1,098 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "Gem rate", "This card": "28.7%", "Cohort median": "44.4%", "Percentile": "27.0", "Rank": "4,293 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "PSA 10 premium", "This card": "4.29x", "Cohort median": "12.35x", "Percentile": "19.4", "Rank": "4,741 of 5,879" } ] }, { "title": "Every priced product named Alakazam ex, by raw ask, September 23 2026", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Number", "Raw ask", "PSA 10 sold", "Sales", "Registry" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Alakazam EX](/card/xy10-125)", "Set": "[Fates Collide](/set/fates%20collide)", "Number": "125/124", "Raw ask": "$183.60", "PSA 10 sold": "$6,150.00", "Sales": "49", "Registry": "8,208" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam ex](/card/sv03.5-201)", "Set": "[151](/set/151)", "Number": "201/165", "Raw ask": "$74.50", "PSA 10 sold": "$319.82", "Sales": "241", "Registry": "40,265" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam EX](/card/xy10-117)", "Set": "[Fates Collide](/set/fates%20collide)", "Number": "117/124", "Raw ask": "$32.38", "PSA 10 sold": "$1,159.99", "Sales": "27", "Registry": "1,868" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam EX](/card/jat-598703)", "Set": "SM: The Best of XY (Japanese)", "Number": "040/171", "Raw ask": "$16.99", "PSA 10 sold": "$50.50", "Sales": "12", "Registry": "248" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam EX](/card/xy10-25)", "Set": "[Fates Collide](/set/fates%20collide)", "Number": "25/124", "Raw ask": "$12.33", "PSA 10 sold": "$250.00", "Sales": "16", "Registry": "585" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam EX](/card/jat-602907)", "Set": "XY10: Awakening Psychic King (Japanese)", "Number": "023/078", "Raw ask": "$10.51", "PSA 10 sold": "$125.00", "Sales": "4", "Registry": "not recorded" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam ex](/card/sv03.5-188)", "Set": "[151](/set/151)", "Number": "188/165", "Raw ask": "$10.29", "PSA 10 sold": "$113.75", "Sales": "40", "Registry": "3,831" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam ex](/card/sv04.5-215)", "Set": "[Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates)", "Number": "215/91", "Raw ask": "$5.73", "PSA 10 sold": "$217.00", "Sales": "79", "Registry": "1,747" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam ex](/card/sv03.5-065)", "Set": "[151](/set/151)", "Number": "065/165", "Raw ask": "$2.19", "PSA 10 sold": "$38.42", "Sales": "4", "Registry": "withheld, shared line" }, { "Card": "[Alakazam ex](/card/svp-050)", "Set": "SVP Black Star Promos", "Number": "050/225", "Raw ask": "$0.83", "PSA 10 sold": "$49.00", "Sales": "15", "Registry": "743" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "The ladder", "When the nine is worth less than the raw", "Against its own set", "Where it sits in the catalog", "The cards people buy by mistake", "What the registry and the tapes did", "Proving the registry line belongs to this card", "What this study cannot show", "What would overturn this" ], "method": [ "Sources: the `cards` catalog, `price_history`, `graded_snapshots` and `population_snapshots` in production, read on day 20719, September 23 2026. The card is resolved by NAME AND NUMBER: Alakazam ex, number 201, set 151, catalog id sv03.5-201, TCGplayer product id 517047. A folded same-name sweep across all 62,388 products, stripping accents, apostrophes, the gender signs and the provider's trailing number suffix, returns twelve products; ten carry a price on the day and are tabled, two Japanese rows do not and are named in prose. RAW is an ASK, the day-20719 `price_history` reading; the same card read $72.79 on day 20718 and both are printed where the margin depends on which day is used. GRADED figures are SOLD medians over verified completed sales with the count beside them, latest `graded_snapshots` row per grade across both keyspaces with the fresher winning. REGISTRY is `population_snapshots`, latest reading per key, September 22 2026 for this card; the latest day differs per card across this series. Gem rates pass `gemRateIsTrustworthy()`. Line sharing is tested by `sharedRegistryKeys()` over all 24,385 population keys, which flagged 883 keys affecting 788 products, including sv03.5-065 whose registry is therefore withheld above, and did not flag this card; and by the grade-by-grade pooling ratio described below. Two assertions run over the graded rows this series prints, and they do not cover the same rows. STALENESS: on every product this module prints a graded figure for, and after the fresher-keyspace rule, any median dated before day 20695, the first day of the current daily tape, is dropped, because the never-refreshed catalog-id keyspace holds rows old enough to invert against their own neighbouring grade. That assertion runs on all 258 graded rows the 66 products this module links carry, at every grade and every grader, and removes exactly one, a CGC 10 dated day 20694 on a card whose graded figures are not printed here, leaving 257. The cohort below is built WITHOUT that gate: applied across the whole catalog it drops nine PSA 10 medians, leaving 8,684 products with a PSA 10 median on two or more sales and a cohort of 5,871, 4,183 English and 1,688 Japanese, and no rank printed in this series moves by more than seven places. POOLING RATIO: recorded sales at a grade divided by the registry count at that grade. This is NOT an impossibility test, and calling it one would be wrong: `graded_snapshots` counts SALES and one slab can sell more than once, so a ratio above 1 is evidence that a graded key is pooling another product, not a physical contradiction. The declared bar is 1.0. `population_snapshots` records a per-grade count at PSA 10 and PSA 9 only, so the ratio is computable on 114 of those 257 rows and on no BGS or CGC row at all; the highest of the 114 is 0.94, 29 PSA 10 sales against the 31 tens on the Wizards-era Eevee's line, and only three exceed 0.5. THE COHORT: 62,388 products after deduplicating 63,600 catalog rows on the TCGplayer product id, 1,212 rows collapsing; 44,400 carry a day-20719 ask, 20,805 an unshared registry reading, 18,239 a trustworthy gem rate, 8,693 a PSA 10 sold median on two or more verified sales, and 5,879 carry all four, 4,191 English and 1,688 Japanese. THE PSA 9 POPULATION is the 4,696 cohort members that also carry a PSA 9 sold median; the five registry bands are closed intervals and their product counts sum to 4,696. Percentile is the share of the cohort strictly below this card's value; medians are upper-middle on even samples. The volatility figures use every adjacent-day pair in the PSA 10 graded tape (67,275 pairs on 9,048 keys) and every adjacent-day pair in `price_history` days 20714 to 20719 (261,184 pairs on 52,474 products), the later window chosen because days 20704 to 20713 are partial. The weekly per-card series `ppthist:517047` holds 22 readings from August 30 2026 to September 20 2026 and lost its earlier history to a known refresh fault, so no window claim longer than the daily tape is made for this card. Not financial advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }