{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/are-hard-to-grade-cards-worth-more",
  "slug": "are-hard-to-grade-cards-worth-more",
  "title": "Hard-to-Grade Cards Cost More, Until 2020",
  "summary": "On 7,957 English cards with a registry of 50 or more slabs, the hardest to gem ask $44.43 against $3.84 in the middle. Inside modern sets the rule inverts.",
  "section": "Grading economics",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 10,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "$44.43 vs $3.84",
      "measures": "median raw ask, sub-10% gem rate against the 25% to 40% band",
      "basis": "1,751 and 1,763 English cards, September 22, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "-0.3493",
      "measures": "rank correlation of gem rate against raw ask",
      "basis": "7,957 English cards with 50 or more slabs on the registry"
    },
    {
      "value": "41 of 46",
      "measures": "sets released before 2020 where the rule holds inside the set",
      "basis": "against 9 of 35 for sets released 2020 or later"
    },
    {
      "value": "+0.0186",
      "measures": "the same correlation with NO registry floor",
      "basis": "18,337 cards. The floor is doing the work and is disclosed here"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The same correlation at four registry floors, English cards with a raw ask",
      "columns": [
        "Minimum slabs on the registry",
        "Cards",
        "Rank correlation, gem rate against raw ask"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Minimum slabs on the registry": "None",
          "Cards": "18,337",
          "Rank correlation, gem rate against raw ask": "+0.0186"
        },
        {
          "Minimum slabs on the registry": "50 or more",
          "Cards": "7,957",
          "Rank correlation, gem rate against raw ask": "-0.3493"
        },
        {
          "Minimum slabs on the registry": "200 or more",
          "Cards": "5,177",
          "Rank correlation, gem rate against raw ask": "-0.4468"
        },
        {
          "Minimum slabs on the registry": "500 or more",
          "Cards": "3,317",
          "Rank correlation, gem rate against raw ask": "-0.4456"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The six gem-rate bands in full (7,957 English cards, September 22, 2026)",
      "columns": [
        "Gem rate",
        "Cards",
        "Median raw ask",
        "Three-quarter cut",
        "Median registry size",
        "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median",
        "Median PSA 10"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Gem rate": "Under 10%",
          "Cards": "1,751",
          "Median raw ask": "$44.43",
          "Three-quarter cut": "$129.53",
          "Median registry size": "474",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median": "482",
          "Median PSA 10": "$2,752.53"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate": "10% to 25%",
          "Cards": "1,671",
          "Median raw ask": "$7.15",
          "Three-quarter cut": "$22.98",
          "Median registry size": "274",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median": "731",
          "Median PSA 10": "$422.00"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate": "25% to 40%",
          "Cards": "1,763",
          "Median raw ask": "$3.84",
          "Three-quarter cut": "$14.04",
          "Median registry size": "288",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median": "906",
          "Median PSA 10": "$148.75"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate": "40% to 55%",
          "Cards": "1,663",
          "Median raw ask": "$4.66",
          "Three-quarter cut": "$14.67",
          "Median registry size": "277",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median": "1,084",
          "Median PSA 10": "$84.95"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate": "55% to 70%",
          "Cards": "897",
          "Median raw ask": "$4.73",
          "Three-quarter cut": "$13.15",
          "Median registry size": "630",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median": "707",
          "Median PSA 10": "$65.00"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate": "70% and up",
          "Cards": "212",
          "Median raw ask": "$5.27",
          "Three-quarter cut": "$12.39",
          "Median registry size": "1,020",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 sold median": "176",
          "Median PSA 10": "$59.00"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Gem rate against raw ask inside single sets, by release era: the 81 dated sets of the 126 English sets holding 25 or more cards on a 50-slab PSA registry, 4,676 cards, September 22, 2026",
      "columns": [
        "Set released",
        "Sets",
        "Cards",
        "Median within-set correlation",
        "Sets running negative"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set released": "1999 to 2002",
          "Sets": "11",
          "Cards": "737",
          "Median within-set correlation": "-0.7239",
          "Sets running negative": "11 of 11"
        },
        {
          "Set released": "2003 to 2010",
          "Sets": "15",
          "Cards": "637",
          "Median within-set correlation": "-0.6981",
          "Sets running negative": "15 of 15"
        },
        {
          "Set released": "2011 to 2019",
          "Sets": "20",
          "Cards": "849",
          "Median within-set correlation": "-0.2947",
          "Sets running negative": "15 of 20"
        },
        {
          "Set released": "2020 to 2022",
          "Sets": "14",
          "Cards": "914",
          "Median within-set correlation": "+0.5527",
          "Sets running negative": "0 of 14"
        },
        {
          "Set released": "2023 to 2026",
          "Sets": "21",
          "Cards": "1,539",
          "Median within-set correlation": "+0.1662",
          "Sets running negative": "9 of 21"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Four sets, each split at its own median gem rate into a harder half and an easier half",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Released",
        "Qualifying cards",
        "Harder half: median gem rate",
        "Harder half: median ask",
        "Easier half: median gem rate",
        "Easier half: median ask",
        "Correlation"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Base Set](/set/base%20set)",
          "Released": "1999-01-09",
          "Qualifying cards": "83",
          "Harder half: median gem rate": "17.12%",
          "Harder half: median ask": "$5.09",
          "Easier half: median gem rate": "37.89%",
          "Easier half: median ask": "$1.38",
          "Correlation": "-0.4961"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "Released": "2003-05-12",
          "Qualifying cards": "124",
          "Harder half: median gem rate": "24.81%",
          "Harder half: median ask": "$149.99",
          "Easier half: median gem rate": "43.12%",
          "Easier half: median ask": "$18.63",
          "Correlation": "-0.6432"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Released": "2021-08-27",
          "Qualifying cards": "111",
          "Harder half: median gem rate": "43.32%",
          "Harder half: median ask": "$2.50",
          "Easier half: median gem rate": "63.67%",
          "Easier half: median ask": "$9.89",
          "Correlation": "+0.5527"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Brilliant Stars](/set/brilliant%20stars)",
          "Released": "2022-02-25",
          "Qualifying cards": "64",
          "Harder half: median gem rate": "39.03%",
          "Harder half: median ask": "$1.09",
          "Easier half: median gem rate": "54.12%",
          "Easier half: median ask": "$10.65",
          "Correlation": "+0.7171"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Median raw ask by gem-rate band, English cards with 50 or more slabs on the registry",
      "unit": "$",
      "note": "7,957 cards, September 22, 2026. Raw prices are ASKS. The six bands partition the population exactly once.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Under 10%",
          "value": 44.43,
          "basis": "1,751 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "10% to 25%",
          "value": 7.15,
          "basis": "1,671 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "25% to 40%",
          "value": 3.84,
          "basis": "1,763 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "40% to 55%",
          "value": 4.66,
          "basis": "1,663 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "55% to 70%",
          "value": 4.73,
          "basis": "897 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "70% and up",
          "value": 5.27,
          "basis": "212 cards"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "The gate comes first, because it decides the number",
    "The hard tail is where all of it lives",
    "Three ways this could be wrong",
    "What changed in 2020",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Sources: `population_snapshots` (product key, UTC day, gem count, PSA 9 count, total) for the gem rate, and `price_history` (product, UTC day, price) read as the latest row on or before day 20718 (September 22, 2026 UTC) for the raw ask. A gem rate is the gem count divided by the total on the latest PUBLISHABLE reading of that registry, where publishable means the house continuity rule has not cut the series: `sharedRegistryKeys` drops 879 keys whose readings ever coincided with another key's on both total and gem rate, because one registry line served against two products cannot be attributed to either, and `publishableRegistry` withholds 1,558 keys whose line changed identity and has only one reading on the new line. 21,928 registries survive. A card with no gem count is NOT RECORDED, never a 0% gem rate, and is excluded. Absolute per-card registry counts are not printed for any card in this study. THE POPULATION IS A SELECTION and the article says so before the number: English cards, carrying a raw ask on the evaluation day, on a surviving registry holding 50 or more slabs. That floor is a gate that changes the headline, so the same correlation is printed at four floors including none, where it is +0.0186 across 18,337 cards. Prices are ASKS from our daily TCGplayer sync, equal to the figure the card page prints; the PSA 10 column is a SOLD median from `graded_snapshots` under the same latest-row rule and is the only sold figure here. EVERY COUNT IS DEDUPED ON THE TCGPLAYER PRODUCT ID: 1,212 ids are claimed by two catalog rows each. Correlations are Spearman rank correlations with average ranks on ties, quoted to four decimal places. Medians use the upper-middle nearest-rank convention, the value at index floor(p x n) of the ascending sample. Gem-rate bands partition the 7,957 exactly once and the six band counts sum to it. The within-set test keeps the 126 English sets holding 25 or more qualifying cards, 7,343 cards; 81 of those sets carry a release date from our `setinfo:v4:` rows and 45 do not, and the 45 are tested and reported rather than dropped silently. The halves in the four-set table are cut at each set's own median gem rate with ties broken on the product id, and on an odd count the middle card falls in neither half, which is why both halves report the same size. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}