{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/chase-card-share-of-set-value",
  "slug": "chase-card-share-of-set-value",
  "title": "One Card, 60% of a Set: Chase Share in 129 Sets",
  "summary": "Giratina V is 60.6% of Lost Origin's priced value, the highest of 129 English sets. Umbreon VMAX is 28.0% of Evolving Skies, which ranks 33rd.",
  "section": "Set economics",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "60.6%",
      "measures": "Giratina V's share of Lost Origin",
      "basis": "rank 1 of 129 sets"
    },
    {
      "value": "28.0%",
      "measures": "Umbreon VMAX's share of Evolving Skies",
      "basis": "rank 33 of 129"
    },
    {
      "value": "19.8%",
      "measures": "the median set's top-card share",
      "basis": "129 dated English sets"
    },
    {
      "value": "+0.038",
      "measures": "rank correlation, set total value against top-card share",
      "basis": "concentration is not a small-set effect"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Ranks 1 to 14 of 129, by the top card's share of the set's total priced value",
      "columns": [
        "#",
        "Set",
        "Its best card",
        "Ask",
        "Set total",
        "Top card share",
        "Top five share"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "#": "1",
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Its best card": "[Giratina V](/card/swsh11-186)",
          "Ask": "$841.43",
          "Set total": "$1,389",
          "Top card share": "60.6%",
          "Top five share": "81.5%"
        },
        {
          "#": "2",
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Its best card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/me02-125)",
          "Ask": "$694.67",
          "Set total": "$1,152",
          "Top card share": "60.3%",
          "Top five share": "87.1%"
        },
        {
          "#": "3",
          "Set": "[Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest)",
          "Its best card": "[Lugia V](/card/swsh12-186)",
          "Ask": "$516.63",
          "Set total": "$969",
          "Top card share": "53.3%",
          "Top five share": "66.2%"
        },
        {
          "#": "4",
          "Set": "[Flashfire](/set/flashfire)",
          "Its best card": "[M Charizard EX](/card/xy2-108)",
          "Ask": "$1,501.23",
          "Set total": "$2,825",
          "Top card share": "53.1%",
          "Top five share": "86.9%"
        },
        {
          "#": "5",
          "Set": "[Shining Legends](/set/shining%20legends)",
          "Its best card": "[Mewtwo GX](/card/sm3.5-78)",
          "Ask": "$809.37",
          "Set total": "$1,555",
          "Top card share": "52.0%",
          "Top five share": "83.2%"
        },
        {
          "#": "6",
          "Set": "Dragon Frontiers",
          "Its best card": "[Mew ☆ δ](/card/ex15-101)",
          "Ask": "$3,500.00",
          "Set total": "$7,237",
          "Top card share": "48.4%",
          "Top five share": "71.6%"
        },
        {
          "#": "7",
          "Set": "[Champion's Path](/set/champion's%20path)",
          "Its best card": "[Charizard V](/card/swsh3.5-79)",
          "Ask": "$263.66",
          "Set total": "$573",
          "Top card share": "46.0%",
          "Top five share": "90.2%"
        },
        {
          "#": "8",
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Its best card": "[Gengar VMAX](/card/swsh8-271)",
          "Ask": "$1,020.24",
          "Set total": "$2,270",
          "Top card share": "45.0%",
          "Top five share": "80.3%"
        },
        {
          "#": "9",
          "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows)",
          "Its best card": "[Charizard GX](/card/sm3-150)",
          "Ask": "$769.02",
          "Set total": "$1,759",
          "Top card share": "43.7%",
          "Top five share": "58.8%"
        },
        {
          "#": "10",
          "Set": "[Base Set](/set/base%20set)",
          "Its best card": "[Charizard](/card/base1-4)",
          "Ask": "$919.98",
          "Set total": "$2,218",
          "Top card share": "41.5%",
          "Top five share": "67.2%"
        },
        {
          "#": "11",
          "Set": "Team Rocket Returns",
          "Its best card": "[Torchic ☆](/card/ex7-108)",
          "Ask": "$4,500.00",
          "Set total": "$10,931",
          "Top card share": "41.2%",
          "Top five share": "60.0%"
        },
        {
          "#": "12",
          "Set": "[Brilliant Stars](/set/brilliant%20stars)",
          "Its best card": "[Charizard V](/card/swsh9-154)",
          "Ask": "$293.99",
          "Set total": "$794",
          "Top card share": "37.0%",
          "Top five share": "61.3%"
        },
        {
          "#": "13",
          "Set": "[Phantom Forces](/set/phantom%20forces)",
          "Its best card": "[Dialga EX](/card/xy4-122)",
          "Ask": "$1,029.48",
          "Set total": "$2,880",
          "Top card share": "35.7%",
          "Top five share": "90.1%"
        },
        {
          "#": "14",
          "Set": "[Stormfront](/set/stormfront)",
          "Its best card": "[Charizard](/card/dp7-103)",
          "Ask": "$737.50",
          "Set total": "$2,078",
          "Top card share": "35.5%",
          "Top five share": "59.3%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Ranks 122 to 129 of 129, the same measure, least concentrated last",
      "columns": [
        "#",
        "Set",
        "Its best card",
        "Ask",
        "Set total",
        "Top card share",
        "Top five share"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "#": "122",
          "Set": "[Forbidden Light](/set/forbidden%20light)",
          "Its best card": "[Lucario GX](/card/sm6-135)",
          "Ask": "$125.00",
          "Set total": "$1,305",
          "Top card share": "9.6%",
          "Top five share": "34.1%"
        },
        {
          "#": "123",
          "Set": "[Scarlet & Violet](/set/scarlet%20%26%20violet)",
          "Its best card": "[Gardevoir ex](/card/sv01-245)",
          "Ask": "$70.90",
          "Set total": "$765",
          "Top card share": "9.3%",
          "Top five share": "33.4%"
        },
        {
          "#": "124",
          "Set": "[Unified Minds](/set/unified%20minds)",
          "Its best card": "[Mewtwo & Mew GX](/card/sm11-242)",
          "Ask": "$420.76",
          "Set total": "$4,703",
          "Top card share": "8.9%",
          "Top five share": "40.2%"
        },
        {
          "#": "125",
          "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Its best card": "[Arceus & Dialga & Palkia GX](/card/sm12-221)",
          "Ask": "$568.26",
          "Set total": "$6,503",
          "Top card share": "8.7%",
          "Top five share": "32.0%"
        },
        {
          "#": "126",
          "Set": "[Shrouded Fable](/set/shrouded%20fable)",
          "Its best card": "[Persian](/card/sv06.5-078)",
          "Ask": "$74.94",
          "Set total": "$861",
          "Top card share": "8.7%",
          "Top five share": "34.4%"
        },
        {
          "#": "127",
          "Set": "[Expedition Base Set](/set/expedition)",
          "Its best card": "[Dragonite](/card/ecard1-9)",
          "Ask": "$799.69",
          "Set total": "$9,858",
          "Top card share": "8.1%",
          "Top five share": "28.8%"
        },
        {
          "#": "128",
          "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)",
          "Its best card": "[Gastly](/card/sv05-177)",
          "Ask": "$96.77",
          "Set total": "$1,237",
          "Top card share": "7.8%",
          "Top five share": "27.1%"
        },
        {
          "#": "129",
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "Its best card": "[Golem](/card/ecard3-148)",
          "Ask": "$1,387.99",
          "Set total": "$20,520",
          "Top card share": "6.8%",
          "Top five share": "26.3%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Share of a set's priced value held by its single most expensive card. Ranks 1 to 12 of 129",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "Asks on 2026-09-22. The median set across all 129 is 19.8%.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Lost Origin",
          "value": 60.6,
          "basis": "Giratina V"
        },
        {
          "label": "Phantasmal Flames",
          "value": 60.3,
          "basis": "Mega Charizard X ex"
        },
        {
          "label": "Silver Tempest",
          "value": 53.3,
          "basis": "Lugia V"
        },
        {
          "label": "Flashfire",
          "value": 53.1,
          "basis": "M Charizard EX"
        },
        {
          "label": "Shining Legends",
          "value": 52,
          "basis": "Mewtwo GX"
        },
        {
          "label": "Dragon Frontiers",
          "value": 48.4,
          "basis": "Mew star delta"
        },
        {
          "label": "Champion's Path",
          "value": 46,
          "basis": "Charizard V"
        },
        {
          "label": "Fusion Strike",
          "value": 45,
          "basis": "Gengar VMAX"
        },
        {
          "label": "Burning Shadows",
          "value": 43.7,
          "basis": "Charizard GX"
        },
        {
          "label": "Base Set",
          "value": 41.5,
          "basis": "Charizard"
        },
        {
          "label": "Team Rocket Returns",
          "value": 41.2,
          "basis": "Torchic star"
        },
        {
          "label": "Brilliant Stars",
          "value": 37,
          "basis": "Charizard V"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "The sets one card owns",
    "The three ways this is wrong",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "As of `price_history` day 20718, which is 2026-09-22. Population as described in every study in this wave: English catalogue rows with a TCGplayer product id, one row per product id after collapsing 240 duplicate rows, priced on that day, in a set carrying a recorded release date and 60 or more such products: 129 sets, 18,698 products. Set total is the sum of those asks. Top-card share is the single highest ask divided by that total; top-five share is the sum of the five highest divided by it. Prices are TCGplayer market prices for the flagship printing and are ASKS. PSA 10 medians and their verified sale counts come from `graded_snapshots`, latest row per card and grade across both the card id and the TCGplayer id, exactly as src/server/card-facts.ts reads them; the cron writes a median only on three or more verified sales, so a card with no median has fewer than three recorded sales rather than none. The ranking is over all 129 sets and printed as two contiguous slices, ranks 1 to 14 and ranks 122 to 129; the full ordered list is in the scratch dump. Ties in the share are broken by the larger set total ranking first, and no exact tie occurs inside either printed slice; ranks 125 and 126 both print 8.7% but are 8.74% and 8.70% before rounding and are ordered on the value. Rank correlations are Spearman with tied ranks averaged, computed over all 129 sets. Sixteen of the 129 sets have no set page that renders their own card list, so they appear unlinked: fifteen EX-era sets have no page, `/set/dragon` among them, which returns 404 when rechecked against production on 2026-09-23, and `/set/legendary treasures` pools the Radiant Collection. Every set and card link in this article was fetched and confirmed to render the set or card the sentence means, by card count and by named chase card, not by a 200 alone. Scripts: apps/web/scripts/rs-figures.mts, rs-extra.mts and rs-links3.mts; figures in apps/web/.scratch-reddit-sets/figures.json. Nothing here is investment advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}