{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/condition-ladder-inversions", "slug": "condition-ladder-inversions", "title": "Why a Played Copy Is Sometimes Priced Above the Mint One", "summary": "Across the 31,728 TCGplayer products whose condition ladder holds a played rung quoted on the same date as its own Near Mint rung, 7,684 ask more for a played copy than for a mint one. That is about a quarter of the book, and the rate is heaviest on cheap cards and on sets released since 2023. The surprising part is which leg is wrong: on 4,496 of the 7,666 we could test, the played ask sits above every Near Mint reading of the previous 45 days, against 1,312 where the mint quote has sunk to its own floor, so the thin rung is usually the played one.", "section": "Market structure", "published": "2026-10-12", "readMinutes": 12, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "24.2%", "measures": "of condition ladders quote a played copy above the mint copy", "basis": "7,684 of 31,728 products, both rungs on one observation date" }, { "value": "21.5%", "measures": "of lightly played quotes sit above that product's own Near Mint quote", "basis": "6,580 of 30,639 same-date lightly played pairs" }, { "value": "58.6%", "measures": "of inverted ladders where the played ask beats every Near Mint reading in 45 days", "basis": "4,496 of the 7,666 inverted ladders carrying a Near Mint series" }, { "value": "1.2x", "measures": "median size of the inversion, worst played rung over Near Mint", "basis": "the 7,684 inverted ladders" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "The 13 largest dollar gaps that resolve to a catalog row, both rungs quoted on one observation date between 7 and 11 October 2026, condition_quotes read 2026-10-12", "columns": [ "Card", "Printing", "Near Mint", "Played ask", "Multiple", "Near Mint range over 45 days" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Lugia (Aquapolis)](/card/ecard2-149)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$500.00", "Played ask": "$2,800.00 heavily played", "Multiple": "5.60x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$500.00 to $1,400.00" }, { "Card": "[Lugia (Neo Genesis)](/card/neo1-9)", "Printing": "1st Edition Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$160.79", "Played ask": "$1,300.00 moderately played", "Multiple": "8.09x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$160.79 to $164.80" }, { "Card": "[Pikachu Star (Holon Phantoms)](/card/ex13-104)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$900.00", "Played ask": "$1,899.99 damaged", "Multiple": "2.11x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$380.00 to $3,200.00" }, { "Card": "[Dark Charizard (Team Rocket)](/card/base5-4)", "Printing": "1st Edition Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$121.94", "Played ask": "$568.14 lightly played", "Multiple": "4.66x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$121.94 to $265.83" }, { "Card": "[Charizard Prerelease (XY Promos)](/card/enx-126023), catalog bucket", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$84.00", "Played ask": "$525.00 lightly played", "Multiple": "6.25x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$84.00 to $89.59" }, { "Card": "[Shining Tyranitar (Neo Destiny)](/card/neo4-113)", "Printing": "Unlimited Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$345.00", "Played ask": "$656.67 lightly played", "Multiple": "1.90x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$345.00 to $662.25" }, { "Card": "[Pokémon Fan Club (POP Series 4)](/card/pop4-9)", "Printing": "Normal", "Near Mint": "$102.00", "Played ask": "$316.33 lightly played", "Multiple": "3.10x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$102.00 to $111.00" }, { "Card": "[Blastoise (Expedition Base Set)](/card/ecard1-4)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$94.22", "Played ask": "$291.50 moderately played", "Multiple": "3.09x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$94.22 to $400.00" }, { "Card": "[Pikachu ex (Ascended Heroes)](/card/me02.5-276)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$810.72", "Played ask": "$996.15 lightly played", "Multiple": "1.23x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$810.72 to $1,052.30" }, { "Card": "[Chandelure Cracked Ice Holo (Blister Exclusives)](/card/enx-282145), catalog bucket", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$20.00", "Played ask": "$179.99 lightly played", "Multiple": "9.00x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$20.00 to $20.00" }, { "Card": "[Mega Charizard Y ex (Ascended Heroes)](/card/me02.5-294)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$300.78", "Played ask": "$445.57 lightly played", "Multiple": "1.48x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$300.78 to $398.87" }, { "Card": "[Scizor ex (Unseen Forces)](/card/ex10-108)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$45.99", "Played ask": "$183.44 moderately played", "Multiple": "3.99x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$45.99 to $300.00" }, { "Card": "[Mew ex (Legend Maker)](/card/ex12-88)", "Printing": "Holofoil", "Near Mint": "$1.38", "Played ask": "$135.00 damaged", "Multiple": "97.83x", "Near Mint range over 45 days": "$1.38 to $1.38" } ] }, { "title": "Inverted ladders by set, English catalog rows, Near Mint quote $5 or more, sets with 30 or more such ladders", "columns": [ "Set", "Released", "Inverted", "Share", "Note" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)", "Released": "2026-01-30", "Inverted": "43 of 44", "Share": "97.7%", "Note": "newest set here" }, { "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)", "Released": "2025-05-30", "Inverted": "31 of 33", "Share": "93.9%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[MEP Black Star Promos](/set/mep%20black%20star%20promos)", "Released": "no release date held", "Inverted": "22 of 42", "Share": "52.4%", "Note": "promo line, kept in the 87" }, { "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)", "Released": "2025-01-17", "Inverted": "37 of 75", "Share": "49.3%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)", "Released": "2024-05-24", "Inverted": "17 of 37", "Share": "45.9%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery](/set/crown%20zenith%20galarian%20gallery)", "Released": "2023-01-20", "Inverted": "25 of 55", "Share": "45.5%", "Note": "subset of [Crown Zenith](/set/crown%20zenith)" }, { "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)", "Released": "2024-11-08", "Inverted": "14 of 33", "Share": "42.4%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Platinum](/set/platinum)", "Released": "2009-02-11", "Inverted": "0 of 45", "Share": "0.0%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Supreme Victors](/set/supreme%20victors)", "Released": "2009-08-19", "Inverted": "0 of 48", "Share": "0.0%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Released": "2019-02-01", "Inverted": "0 of 53", "Share": "0.0%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[HeartGold SoulSilver](/set/heartgold%20soulsilver)", "Released": "2010-02-10", "Inverted": "0 of 56", "Share": "0.0%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)", "Released": "2018-11-02", "Inverted": "0 of 61", "Share": "0.0%", "Note": "" }, { "Set": "[Gym Heroes](/set/gym%20heroes)", "Released": "2000-10-14", "Inverted": "0 of 84", "Share": "0.0%", "Note": "largest set with none" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Share of same-date pairs quoting the played rung above Near Mint", "unit": "%", "note": "condition_quotes read 2026-10-12. Each played rung is paired only to its own product's Near Mint rung, on the identical observation date and the identical printing label.", "points": [ { "label": "Lightly played", "value": 21.5, "basis": "6,580 of 30,639 pairs" }, { "label": "Moderately played", "value": 9.1, "basis": "1,917 of 21,004 pairs" }, { "label": "Damaged", "value": 4, "basis": "514 of 12,980 pairs" }, { "label": "Heavily played", "value": 3.8, "basis": "476 of 12,609 pairs" } ] }, { "title": "The four ways an inverted ladder splits, on the 7,666 with a Near Mint series", "unit": "%", "note": "nm_history readings for days 20692 to 20737, which is 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-11. An anomaly means the played ask exceeds the highest Near Mint reading in the window; a collapse means the Near Mint quote equals the window's lowest reading and sits under 95% of its median, taking the upper of the two middle readings on an even count. The four bars partition the 7,666. The two tests overlap, so the anomaly rule's own total of 4,496 is bar one plus bar four, and the collapse rule's 1,312 is bar three plus bar four.", "points": [ { "label": "Only the played ask is out of range", "value": 52.3, "basis": "4,006 ladders" }, { "label": "Neither leg out of range", "value": 30.6, "basis": "2,348 ladders" }, { "label": "Only the Near Mint quote is at its floor", "value": 10.7, "basis": "822 ladders" }, { "label": "Both at once", "value": 6.4, "basis": "490 ladders" } ] } ], "sections": [ "The break is one rung, not a reversed ladder", "Which leg is lying", "The recent sets invert and the old ones do not", "What this measure is not" ], "method": [ "POPULATION, stated first. condition_quotes read from Turso production on 2026-10-12: 170,451 rows over 52,146 TCGplayer products across five rungs, Near Mint 50,058, lightly played 42,072, moderately played 31,925, damaged 23,385, heavily played 23,011. Its primary key is (tcg_id, condition), so it is a current snapshot with one row per product per condition, upserted in place, and not a time series. Each row carries the date our source last observed it: as_of spans 2025-03-24 to 2026-10-11 with no nulls, 70.6% of rows observed within 7 days of the newest date and 82.5% within 30, and the Near Mint rung is the freshest at 77.6% within 7 days against 59.2% on heavily played, which is the stalest rung. That order is not a clean ladder: lightly played reads 75.2%, moderately played 69.9% and damaged 59.5%, so damaged is fresher than heavily played. Every price is a per-condition market figure derived from live listings, an ask and never a sale. EXCLUSIONS, in order, with counts. 2,088 products carry no Near Mint rung and are dropped, leaving 50,058. No row in the table carries a price of zero or less, so nothing was dropped for a non-positive price. Each played rung is then paired to that product's own Near Mint rung only where the two carry the identical as_of date and the identical printing label, which leaves 30,639 lightly played pairs (10,183 excluded for a different date, 9,236 for no lightly played rung, 1,250 for no Near Mint rung), 21,004 moderately played (9,897 different date, 19,157 no rung, 1,024 no Near Mint), 12,609 heavily played (9,726 different date, 27,723 no rung, 676 no Near Mint) and 12,980 damaged (9,959 different date, 27,119 no rung, 446 no Near Mint). No pair was excluded for a printing mismatch. That is not because a product's rungs always agree: 30 products do carry two distinct printing labels across their rungs, and none of those 30 ever produces a same-date pair across the two labels. No row carries a null printing label either, so no pair matched on two blanks. 31,728 products hold at least one same-date pair and those are the ladders every share above is computed on. A missing rung is an exclusion and is never entered as a zero. IDENTITY. For the set cut and the named rows, each product is collapsed to one catalog row per tcg_id by taking the lexically first card id, because 1,219 of the 56,689 tcg_ids in cards are claimed by more than one catalog row. None of those 1,219 mixes languages, and 1,213 of them are two spellings of one English set name, so the collision this project has been bitten by, a set written in Japanese and in English double-counting, is not what these are; the set key keeps lang separate regardless. The collapse rule does not move the basket: taking the lexically last card id instead returns the same 87 qualifying sets, the same 22 with no inverted ladder, and the same 44 and 33 ladders on Ascended Heroes and Destined Rivals. 31,175 of the 31,728 ladders match a catalog row and 553 match none; among the 7,684 inverted, 6,251 are English, 1,334 Japanese and 99 unmatched. Prize Pack Series Cards, World Championship Decks, Miscellaneous Cards & Products, XY Promos and Blister Exclusives are catalog containers rather than sets; they are dropped from the set table, which is why 87 sets qualify for it out of the 91 groups that clear its 30 ladder floor, and they are labelled where they appear in a named row. MEP Black Star Promos is the one borderline group: it is a promo line, not a numbered expansion, and it is counted as a set rather than a container, which is the only such call in the cut and it changes no other figure here. MECHANISM. The split between a played anomaly and a Near Mint collapse reads nm_history, one Near Mint reading per product per day, for days 20692 to 20737, which is 2026-08-27 to 2026-10-11, in IN-lists of 400 product ids per statement. The classification required at least 10 readings inside the window and 7,666 of the 7,684 inverted products clear that; the named products in the table above hold between 16 and 46 readings each, because the Near Mint sweep does not reach every product every day. An anomaly means the played ask exceeds the highest Near Mint reading in the window. A collapse means the Near Mint quote equals the lowest reading in the window and sits strictly under 95% of its median, where the median on an even count of readings is the upper of the two middle values. Both boundaries were tested rather than assumed: across all twelve combinations of three median conventions, strict and non-strict on the 95% test, and exact against cent rounded comparison, the anomaly count is 4,496 every time, while the collapse count moves between 1,302 and 1,327 and reads 1,312 under the convention printed here. So the played leg does not turn on the convention at all, and the mint leg moves by about a third of a percentage point across the twelve. The two tests are not exclusive, the 490 that are both are reported separately, and the four way split of 4,006, 822, 490 and 2,348 sums to the 7,666. COST AND PLANS. EXPLAIN QUERY PLAN returns SCAN condition_quotes for the one projection read and SCAN cards for the one identity read of the 57,908 rows carrying a non-empty tcg_id; a whole-book census is a full scan by definition, so each was executed once, cached to a local file, and every one of the aggregates above is computed in JavaScript over those two arrays with no further SQL. The per-card lookups plan SEARCH cards USING INDEX sqlite_autoindex_cards_1 and the series reads plan SEARCH nm_history USING INDEX sqlite_autoindex_nm_history_1. WHAT IS NOT HERE. No graded figure, no PSA population, no sold median and no provider price series enters any figure, so neither the two keyspaces of graded_snapshots nor the printing mixing in a provider condition series applies. There is no index, no basket and no change over time: every comparison is within one product on one date. LIVE SURFACE. The card page withholds an incoherent ladder whole, so none of the 7,684 can be checked on this site today; the endpoint readings quoted above were taken from production on 2026-10-12 and the only external check is the TCGplayer product page for each id. RELEASE DATES come from our own set metadata, the 220 row table behind the set pages, read from api_cache by exact key and never by a prefix predicate. Ascended Heroes reads 2026-01-30 there, which corrects a working note that called it a set released weeks before this read; it is the newest set in the table and 255 days old at the read, and the thin-supply reading of its ladders is treated as noise either way. MEP Black Star Promos carries no release date in that table and is printed as such. LINKS. Every card id above was checked against the cards table by primary key on 2026-10-12, a read that plans SEARCH cards USING COVERING INDEX sqlite_autoindex_cards_1, and each one resolves to a row whose name and set match the label given it, with a parenthetical flattened on two variant names, Charizard (Prerelease) and Chandelure (Cracked Ice Holo). Every set link returned 200 from production the same day. Nothing here is investment advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }