{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/destined-rivals-back-to-its-release-price",
  "slug": "destined-rivals-back-to-its-release-price",
  "title": "Destined Rivals Is 7.8% Below Its Release Price, and It Was 10% Cheaper in January",
  "summary": "The claim going round is that Destined Rivals is almost back to where it started. On our tape that is close to true: the set read $1,898.13 three days after release and read $1,750.98 on September 17, 2026, 475 days later. What the round trip hides is the route. It was 30.7% above the release price in September 2025, 17.2% below it in January 2026, 19.0% above it again in June, and it has lost 22.5% in the 95 days since. Close to the release price is not the same as close to the floor.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-20",
  "readMinutes": 10,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "-7.8%",
      "measures": "set value against its release price",
      "basis": "$1,898.13 on June 2, 2025 to $1,750.98 on September 17, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "154 of 312",
      "measures": "readings at or above the release price",
      "basis": "the last one was July 26, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "$1,571.33",
      "measures": "the actual floor, on January 19, 2026",
      "basis": "10.3% below the September 17 reading"
    },
    {
      "value": "-22.5%",
      "measures": "from the June 14 secondary high",
      "basis": "$2,258.36 to $1,750.98 in 95 days"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The waypoints, all on the release-date baseline",
      "columns": [
        "Date",
        "Day",
        "Set value",
        "vs release price",
        "What it was"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Date": "June 2, 2025",
          "Day": "3",
          "Set value": "$1,898.13",
          "vs release price": "baseline",
          "What it was": "first reading after release"
        },
        {
          "Date": "September 29, 2025",
          "Day": "122",
          "Set value": "$2,481.48",
          "vs release price": "+30.7%",
          "What it was": "highest post-release reading"
        },
        {
          "Date": "January 19, 2026",
          "Day": "234",
          "Set value": "$1,571.33",
          "vs release price": "-17.2%",
          "What it was": "the actual floor"
        },
        {
          "Date": "June 14, 2026",
          "Day": "380",
          "Set value": "$2,258.36",
          "vs release price": "+19.0%",
          "What it was": "secondary high"
        },
        {
          "Date": "July 26, 2026",
          "Day": "422",
          "Set value": "$2,005.67",
          "vs release price": "+5.7%",
          "What it was": "last reading above the release price"
        },
        {
          "Date": "September 17, 2026",
          "Day": "475",
          "Set value": "$1,750.98",
          "vs release price": "-7.8%",
          "What it was": "latest reading"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Every set whose recorded series straddles its own release",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Released",
        "Release price",
        "Today",
        "vs release",
        "90 days",
        "Days to peak"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Released": "May 22, 2026",
          "Release price": "$1,613.15",
          "Today": "$572.55",
          "vs release": "-64.5%",
          "90 days": "-44.7%",
          "Days to peak": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Pitch Black](/set/pitch%20black)",
          "Released": "Jul 17, 2026",
          "Release price": "$1,836.40",
          "Today": "$702.47",
          "vs release": "-61.7%",
          "90 days": "n/a",
          "Days to peak": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Released": "Mar 28, 2025",
          "Release price": "$995.68",
          "Today": "$478.17",
          "vs release": "-52.0%",
          "90 days": "-18.9%",
          "Days to peak": "3"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)",
          "Released": "Sep 26, 2025",
          "Release price": "$3,188.06",
          "Today": "$1,548.53",
          "vs release": "-51.4%",
          "90 days": "-16.5%",
          "Days to peak": "3"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Released": "Mar 27, 2026",
          "Release price": "$1,011.41",
          "Today": "$564.39",
          "vs release": "-44.2%",
          "90 days": "-32.8%",
          "Days to peak": "10"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Released": "Nov 14, 2025",
          "Release price": "$1,875.12",
          "Today": "$1,166.15",
          "vs release": "-37.8%",
          "90 days": "-20.1%",
          "Days to peak": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Released": "May 30, 2025",
          "Release price": "$1,898.13",
          "Today": "$1,750.98",
          "vs release": "-7.8%",
          "90 days": "-22.4%",
          "Days to peak": "122"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "Released": "Jan 30, 2026",
          "Release price": "$5,612.96",
          "Today": "$5,266.13",
          "vs release": "-6.2%",
          "90 days": "-33.5%",
          "Days to peak": "6"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[White Flare](/set/white%20flare)",
          "Released": "Jul 18, 2025",
          "Release price": "$3,256.06",
          "Today": "$3,866.45",
          "vs release": "+18.7%",
          "90 days": "+1.8%",
          "Days to peak": "362"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt)",
          "Released": "Jul 18, 2025",
          "Release price": "$2,943.17",
          "Today": "$4,369.90",
          "vs release": "+48.5%",
          "90 days": "+0.5%",
          "Days to peak": "375"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Destined Rivals, largest 22-day moves among cards at $1 or more",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Three weeks ago",
        "Latest",
        "Move"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Cynthia's Roserade](/card/sv10-184)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$14.24",
          "Latest": "$11.07",
          "Move": "-22.3%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Cynthia's Garchomp ex](/card/sv10-104)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$1.03",
          "Latest": "$0.82",
          "Move": "-20.4%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Team Rocket's Houndoom](/card/sv10-191)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$13.01",
          "Latest": "$10.69",
          "Move": "-17.8%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Ethan's Adventure](/card/sv10-221)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$3.20",
          "Latest": "$2.64",
          "Move": "-17.5%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Arven's Mabosstiff ex](/card/sv10-218)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$1.54",
          "Latest": "$1.28",
          "Move": "-16.9%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Dondozo ex](/card/sv10-211)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$1.25",
          "Latest": "$1.04",
          "Move": "-16.8%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex](/card/sv10-081)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$1.57",
          "Latest": "$1.95",
          "Move": "+24.2%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Team Rocket's Giovanni](/card/sv10-225)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$5.13",
          "Latest": "$6.15",
          "Move": "+19.9%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Emcee's Hype](/card/sv10-220)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$1.83",
          "Latest": "$2.13",
          "Move": "+16.4%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Team Rocket's Ariana](/card/sv10-224)",
          "Three weeks ago": "$3.53",
          "Latest": "$4.05",
          "Move": "+14.7%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "First, what the release price is",
    "The path, not the endpoints",
    "This is not a Destined Rivals story",
    "What is actually falling inside the set"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Set value is the sum of the market price of every card we track in the set, so it moves with card prices and also with how many cards we have priced. That second effect is why this analysis is restricted to sets whose series begins before their own release date: the catalog was already complete when the window opened. Readings are weekly from each series start to October 27, 2025 and daily from October 29, 2025, and most sets then have a gap of 35 to 40 days between late July and August 30, 2026, which Black Bolt, Chaos Rising and Pitch Black do not share. Peaks and floors are therefore weekly observations for the first five months and can understate a true intra-week extreme. Launch figures use the first reading dated on or after the set's published release date, never the first reading in the series. Set indices are as of each set's latest reading, September 17 to September 20, 2026 depending on the set, and the Destined Rivals index is as of September 17, 2026. Card-level moves cover the 22 days ending September 20, 2026, are quoted only for lines priced at $1 or more on the first of those days, and count one line that has no catalog entry and so cannot be named or linked. Sealed prices are current listing prices with their own 30-day change. Nothing here is investment advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}