{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/do-pokemon-sets-gain-value-with-age", "slug": "do-pokemon-sets-gain-value-with-age", "title": "Do Pokémon Sets Gain Value With Age? 100 Sets", "summary": "Across 100 English sets with a continuous recorded value series, the median 10 to 15 year old set returned 190.3% while sets under three returned 22.8%.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-09-22", "readMinutes": 9, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "+190.3%", "measures": "median move, sets aged 10 to 15 years", "basis": "25 sets, one common window" }, { "value": "+22.8%", "measures": "median move, sets under three years old", "basis": "13 sets, same window" }, { "value": "+0.648", "measures": "rank correlation, set age against set move", "basis": "100 sets with a continuous series" }, { "value": "100 of 157", "measures": "sets that survived the continuity filter", "basis": "the rest carry a step in the instrument, not in the market" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Set-level move over the common window, by age at the last reading", "columns": [ "Age of the set", "Sets", "Median move", "Worst", "Best", "Share that rose" ], "rows": [ { "Age of the set": "Under 3 years", "Sets": "13", "Median move": "+22.8%", "Worst": "-30.7%", "Best": "+401.1%", "Share that rose": "85%" }, { "Age of the set": "3 to 6 years", "Sets": "23", "Median move": "+66.9%", "Worst": "+18.0%", "Best": "+144.5%", "Share that rose": "100%" }, { "Age of the set": "6 to 10 years", "Sets": "26", "Median move": "+135.5%", "Worst": "+58.2%", "Best": "+266.7%", "Share that rose": "100%" }, { "Age of the set": "10 to 15 years", "Sets": "25", "Median move": "+190.3%", "Worst": "+74.6%", "Best": "+325.5%", "Share that rose": "100%" }, { "Age of the set": "15 to 20 years", "Sets": "9", "Median move": "+204.1%", "Worst": "-24.6%", "Best": "+338.8%", "Share that rose": "89%" }, { "Age of the set": "20 years or more", "Sets": "4", "Median move": "+128.3%", "Worst": "+67.9%", "Best": "+323.2%", "Share that rose": "100%" } ] }, { "title": "Fixed-basket card index by set age, constituents frozen at the window open", "columns": [ "Age of the set", "Sets", "Cards in basket", "Median card move", "Value-weighted move" ], "rows": [ { "Age of the set": "3 to 6 years", "Sets": "7", "Cards in basket": "481", "Median card move": "+45.1%", "Value-weighted move": "+37.0%" }, { "Age of the set": "6 to 10 years", "Sets": "18", "Cards in basket": "1,038", "Median card move": "+97.7%", "Value-weighted move": "+119.6%" }, { "Age of the set": "10 to 15 years", "Sets": "5", "Cards in basket": "223", "Median card move": "+89.1%", "Value-weighted move": "+148.4%" }, { "Age of the set": "15 to 25 years", "Sets": "1", "Cards in basket": "25", "Median card move": "+115.0%", "Value-weighted move": "+170.8%" } ] }, { "title": "Selected sets from the continuous cohort, oldest first", "columns": [ "Set", "Released", "Age", "Move over the window", "Below its own recorded high" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "[Base Set](/set/base%20set)", "Released": "1999-01-09", "Age": "27.7y", "Move over the window": "+67.9%", "Below its own recorded high": "-1.1%" }, { "Set": "[Base Set 2](/set/base%20set%202)", "Released": "2000-02-24", "Age": "26.6y", "Move over the window": "+79.6%", "Below its own recorded high": "0.0%" }, { "Set": "[Supreme Victors](/set/supreme%20victors)", "Released": "2009-08-19", "Age": "17.1y", "Move over the window": "+204.1%", "Below its own recorded high": "0.0%" }, { "Set": "[HeartGold SoulSilver](/set/heartgold%20soulsilver)", "Released": "2010-02-10", "Age": "16.6y", "Move over the window": "+318.9%", "Below its own recorded high": "0.0%" }, { "Set": "[Plasma Blast](/set/plasma%20blast)", "Released": "2013-08-14", "Age": "13.1y", "Move over the window": "+165.9%", "Below its own recorded high": "0.0%" }, { "Set": "[XY Ancient Origins](/set/ancient%20origins)", "Released": "2015-08-12", "Age": "11.1y", "Move over the window": "+233.0%", "Below its own recorded high": "0.0%" }, { "Set": "[XY Evolutions](/set/xy%20-%20evolutions)", "Released": "2016-11-02", "Age": "9.9y", "Move over the window": "+145.0%", "Below its own recorded high": "-2.5%" }, { "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)", "Released": "2019-11-01", "Age": "6.9y", "Move over the window": "+138.0%", "Below its own recorded high": "0.0%" }, { "Set": "[Champion's Path](/set/champion's%20path)", "Released": "2020-09-25", "Age": "6.0y", "Move over the window": "+18.0%", "Below its own recorded high": "-3.6%" }, { "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)", "Released": "2021-08-27", "Age": "5.1y", "Move over the window": "+63.8%", "Below its own recorded high": "-3.2%" }, { "Set": "[Crown Zenith](/set/crown%20zenith)", "Released": "2023-01-20", "Age": "3.7y", "Move over the window": "+119.2%", "Below its own recorded high": "-13.5%" }, { "Set": "[151](/set/151)", "Released": "2023-09-22", "Age": "3.0y", "Move over the window": "+47.4%", "Below its own recorded high": "-22.9%" }, { "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)", "Released": "2024-09-13", "Age": "2.0y", "Move over the window": "+9.3%", "Below its own recorded high": "-18.2%" }, { "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)", "Released": "2025-01-17", "Age": "1.7y", "Move over the window": "-28.5%", "Below its own recorded high": "-31.0%" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "One hundred sets, and why not two hundred", "A second instrument, built so the constituents cannot move", "Fourteen sets, named and dated", "What would overturn this", "What this study cannot show" ], "method": [ "Population: the 200 sets holding an owned `sethist2:` value series, joined to release dates in `report:spread:setsmeta` on a normalized set key. A set enters the cohort with a release date, a reading between 2025-01-27 and 2025-02-10, and a reading on or after 2026-09-01: 157 sets. It enters the continuous cohort when no two adjacent readings in its post-release window differ by more than 15%: 100 sets. Move is the last reading divided by the anchor reading minus one; every set in the cohort anchors on 2025-01-27, and windows run 600 to 603 days across the 100 continuous sets because they are not all read on the same day at the close. All-time highs and lows are windowed to readings dated on or after the recorded release date, never the first reading in the series. Medians take the upper middle value on even samples. Rank correlations average tied ranks. The fixed-basket index uses `ppthist:` per-card weekly series joined through `cards.tcg_id`, English only, constituents frozen at the first reading on or after 2025-02-10, requiring the card's series to reach past 2026-09-01 and the set to hold at least ten such cards: 2,494 cards in 41 sets, 31 dated. 240 English catalog rows share a TCGplayer product id with another row (trainer-kit halves and Trainer Gallery cards that sit in both the subset and its parent); one row per product id is kept throughout, preferring the catalog-native id over the synthetic `enx-` one and the more specific set row over its parent. Rank correlation is Spearman on set age in years against the move. The partial correlation quoted under falsifiability is the standard first-order partial of the three rank correlations among age, median card price and move, on the 58 continuous sets that also carry at least ten priced cards. Card prices come from the daily `price_history` tape as of 2026-09-22, which is the same figure the card pages publish; the per-card `ppthist:` series is used only for the fixed basket, because several hundred of those series have stopped updating. Prices are TCGplayer market asks for the flagship printing. Nothing here is investment advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }