{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/do-sealed-pokemon-boxes-go-up-in-value",
  "slug": "do-sealed-pokemon-boxes-go-up-in-value",
  "title": "Do Sealed Pokemon Boxes Go Up in Value?",
  "summary": "Across 56 priced 36-pack English booster boxes quoted on one day, the median ask runs from $290.44 under a year old to $10,000 past twenty. That is a cross-section of the boxes that survived, not a return.",
  "section": "Investment research",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 10,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "0.824",
      "measures": "rank correlation, years since release against box ask",
      "basis": "a cross-section of 56 priced 36-pack English boxes on one day, 2026-09-22, not a trajectory"
    },
    {
      "value": "34.4x",
      "measures": "median box ask past twenty years over the under-one-year median",
      "basis": "$10,000 against $290.44; a ratio between two groups of sets, never a return on a purchase"
    },
    {
      "value": "31.91x",
      "measures": "dearest over cheapest box inside the six-to-ten year band",
      "basis": "the widest dispersion of any band; it is 2.26x under one year and does not rise monotonically between them"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Booster box ask by years since the set's release, 56 boxes, 2026-09-22",
      "columns": [
        "Years since release",
        "Boxes",
        "Median ask",
        "Median per pack",
        "Cheapest",
        "Dearest"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Years since release": "Under 1",
          "Boxes": "6",
          "Median ask": "$290.44",
          "Median per pack": "$8.07",
          "Cheapest": "$175.99",
          "Dearest": "$397.69"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "1 to 3",
          "Boxes": "8",
          "Median ask": "$308.48",
          "Median per pack": "$8.57",
          "Cheapest": "$237.12",
          "Dearest": "$421.02"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "3 to 6",
          "Boxes": "12",
          "Median ask": "$479.51",
          "Median per pack": "$13.32",
          "Cheapest": "$283.61",
          "Dearest": "$2,408.12"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "6 to 10",
          "Boxes": "16",
          "Median ask": "$1,647.98",
          "Median per pack": "$45.78",
          "Cheapest": "$367.47",
          "Dearest": "$11,725.00"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "10 to 20",
          "Boxes": "9",
          "Median ask": "$3,799.99",
          "Median per pack": "$105.56",
          "Cheapest": "$1,299.99",
          "Dearest": "$18,750.00"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "20 and over",
          "Boxes": "5",
          "Median ask": "$10,000.00",
          "Median per pack": "$277.78",
          "Cheapest": "$499.99",
          "Dearest": "$14,000.00"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "How wide each age band is",
      "columns": [
        "Years since release",
        "Boxes",
        "Dearest / cheapest inside the band"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Years since release": "Under 1",
          "Boxes": "6",
          "Dearest / cheapest inside the band": "2.26x"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "1 to 3",
          "Boxes": "8",
          "Dearest / cheapest inside the band": "1.78x"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "3 to 6",
          "Boxes": "12",
          "Dearest / cheapest inside the band": "8.49x"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "6 to 10",
          "Boxes": "16",
          "Dearest / cheapest inside the band": "31.91x"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "10 to 20",
          "Boxes": "9",
          "Dearest / cheapest inside the band": "14.42x"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "20 and over",
          "Boxes": "5",
          "Dearest / cheapest inside the band": "28.00x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The six boxes furthest above their own age band's median, ranks 1 to 6 of 56",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Released",
        "Years",
        "Box ask",
        "Band median",
        "Multiple of band"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Released": "2019-02-01",
          "Years": "7.64",
          "Box ask": "$11,725.00",
          "Band median": "$1,647.98",
          "Multiple of band": "7.11x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Released": "2021-08-27",
          "Years": "5.07",
          "Box ask": "$2,408.12",
          "Band median": "$479.51",
          "Multiple of band": "5.02x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Legendary Treasures](/set/legendary%20treasures)",
          "Released": "2013-11-06",
          "Years": "12.88",
          "Box ask": "$18,750.00",
          "Band median": "$3,799.99",
          "Multiple of band": "4.93x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Plasma Freeze](/set/plasma%20freeze)",
          "Released": "2013-05-08",
          "Years": "13.37",
          "Box ask": "$14,999.00",
          "Band median": "$3,799.99",
          "Multiple of band": "3.95x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Released": "2019-11-01",
          "Years": "6.89",
          "Box ask": "$4,216.67",
          "Band median": "$1,647.98",
          "Multiple of band": "2.56x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Released": "2021-11-12",
          "Years": "4.86",
          "Box ask": "$968.97",
          "Band median": "$479.51",
          "Multiple of band": "2.02x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "How well quoted the study's own 56 boxes are, by age band, 23 recorded days",
      "columns": [
        "Years since release",
        "Boxes",
        "In the 20-of-23 reading panel",
        "Median share of steps that moved",
        "No sealed history row at all",
        "Row on file but no reading in the window"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Years since release": "Under 1",
          "Boxes": "6",
          "In the 20-of-23 reading panel": "6",
          "Median share of steps that moved": "100.0%",
          "No sealed history row at all": "0",
          "Row on file but no reading in the window": "0"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "1 to 3",
          "Boxes": "8",
          "In the 20-of-23 reading panel": "8",
          "Median share of steps that moved": "72.7%",
          "No sealed history row at all": "0",
          "Row on file but no reading in the window": "0"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "3 to 6",
          "Boxes": "12",
          "In the 20-of-23 reading panel": "12",
          "Median share of steps that moved": "42.9%",
          "No sealed history row at all": "0",
          "Row on file but no reading in the window": "0"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "6 to 10",
          "Boxes": "16",
          "In the 20-of-23 reading panel": "14",
          "Median share of steps that moved": "14.3%",
          "No sealed history row at all": "1",
          "Row on file but no reading in the window": "0"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "10 to 20",
          "Boxes": "9",
          "In the 20-of-23 reading panel": "3",
          "Median share of steps that moved": "4.5%",
          "No sealed history row at all": "2",
          "Row on file but no reading in the window": "3"
        },
        {
          "Years since release": "20 and over",
          "Boxes": "5",
          "In the 20-of-23 reading panel": "0",
          "Median share of steps that moved": "not measurable",
          "No sealed history row at all": "0",
          "Row on file but no reading in the window": "3"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "How often a sealed ask changes, by price band, 23 recorded days",
      "columns": [
        "Sealed ask",
        "Products",
        "Median distinct prices in 23 days",
        "Share of steps that moved",
        "Never moved"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Sealed ask": "Under $25",
          "Products": "284",
          "Median distinct prices in 23 days": "5",
          "Share of steps that moved": "19.0%",
          "Never moved": "6.3%"
        },
        {
          "Sealed ask": "$25 to $99",
          "Products": "621",
          "Median distinct prices in 23 days": "4",
          "Share of steps that moved": "14.3%",
          "Never moved": "9.2%"
        },
        {
          "Sealed ask": "$100 to $499",
          "Products": "417",
          "Median distinct prices in 23 days": "4",
          "Share of steps that moved": "14.3%",
          "Never moved": "15.1%"
        },
        {
          "Sealed ask": "$500 to $1,999",
          "Products": "92",
          "Median distinct prices in 23 days": "3",
          "Share of steps that moved": "9.1%",
          "Never moved": "21.7%"
        },
        {
          "Sealed ask": "$2,000 and above",
          "Products": "14",
          "Median distinct prices in 23 days": "2",
          "Share of steps that moved": "4.5%",
          "Never moved": "28.6%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The level rises",
    "The sets that broke their band",
    "The oldest asks are also the stalest",
    "The singles half of the same question",
    "What this study cannot show",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: every row of sealed_products with price_usd > 0 and packs = 36 that classifyProduct() calls a Booster Box and does not flag as a lot. That is 57 SKUs on 2026-09-22. Release dates come from the api_cache row report:spread:setsmeta, which holds 220 TCGplayer set names of which 201 carry a release date; the join is exact on sealed_products.set_name against that name, with no normalising, and 56 of 57 SKUs matched. The one exclusion is the Delta Reign Booster Box, whose set releases 2026-11-06 and would carry a negative age. Age is (2026-09-22 minus release date) divided by 365.25. Bands are half-open in years, and no box in the sample lands on a band boundary. Nothing in the pipeline enforces a language filter; \"English\" describes what all 56 matched rows turned out to be, verified by inspection, rather than a predicate in the query. The correlation is Spearman's rho on the 56 matched rows. Medians take the upper-middle value on even samples, which matters once: the under-one-year band's median is $290.44 on that convention and $241.16 on the lower-middle. The staleness tables are computed from a different pipeline: the per-product daily sealed histories in api_cache under sealedhist:<tcgPlayerId>, restricted to NON-LOT products with a reading on at least 20 of the 23 days from 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-21, counting a step as moved when consecutive readings differ at all. That restriction takes the 1,800-product panel to the 1,428 non-lot products the price-band table counts. The by-age-band table applies the same reading rule to this study's own 56 boxes instead, which is why its rows are small. Both pipelines carry ASKS. Scripts: apps/web/scripts/sealed-c2-outofprint.mts and sealed-d4-final.mts. All figures and queries are in apps/web/.scratch-sealed/figures.json."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}