{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/do-the-weakest-cards-in-a-set-catch-up", "slug": "do-the-weakest-cards-in-a-set-catch-up", "title": "The Weakest Sun & Moon Era Cards Rose 2.5% While the Rest of Their Sets Rose 7.7%. In Other Sets They Kept Up", "summary": "We took the three weakest cards in each set at six dates from April 2025 to July 2026, 516 picks across 32 sets, and followed each one for 13 weeks. All together, the weakest rose 3.0% while the rest of their sets rose 6.3%. Most of that gap came from Sun & Moon. In its 14 sets the weakest rose 2.5% against 7.7% for the rest. In the other 18 sets they rose 4.0% against 3.7%.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-11-15", "readMinutes": 10, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "+2.5% vs +7.7%", "measures": "Sun & Moon sets: the three weakest against the rest, median move over the next 13 weeks", "basis": "251 picks, against 2,840 other cards checked on the same dates, in 14 sets" }, { "value": "+4.0% vs +3.7%", "measures": "every other set: the three weakest against the rest", "basis": "257 picks, against 2,307 other cards checked, in 18 sets" }, { "value": "4.3 points behind", "measures": "Sun & Moon's gap, set by set and date by date", "basis": "likely range 1.9 to 6.4 points behind" }, { "value": "1.4 points ahead", "measures": "the same gap in every other set", "basis": "likely range 2.6 behind to 5.3 ahead" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "What the weakest did over the next 13 weeks, against cards from the rest of the same sets", "columns": [ "Outcome", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)", "Weakest, other sets (257)", "Every other card (5,147)" ], "rows": [ { "Outcome": "beat the typical card in their set by more than 5 points", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "24.7%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "37.0%", "Every other card (5,147)": "33.7%" }, { "Outcome": "within 5 points of it either way", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "24.3%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "27.6%", "Every other card (5,147)": "33.3%" }, { "Outcome": "fell more than 5 points further behind", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "51.0%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "35.4%", "Every other card (5,147)": "32.9%" }, { "Outcome": "price up more than 5%", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "43.8%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "48.6%", "Every other card (5,147)": "54.1%" }, { "Outcome": "price down more than 5%", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "24.3%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "28.4%", "Every other card (5,147)": "18.6%" }, { "Outcome": "up 14.94% or more, enough to cover selling fees and postage", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "23.1%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "29.6%", "Every other card (5,147)": "31.2%" }, { "Outcome": "up 24.14% or more, enough to also cover buying at the ask", "Weakest, Sun & Moon sets (251)": "12.4%", "Weakest, other sets (257)": "15.2%", "Every other card (5,147)": "19.0%" } ] }, { "title": "The five cards that were among their set's three weakest at four of the six dates", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Price the first week it made the list", "Price 13 weeks after its last time on the list", "Times it beat the rest of its set" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Nest Ball 158](/card/sm1-158)", "Set": "[Sun & Moon](/set/sun%20%26%20moon)", "Price the first week it made the list": "$25.20, week of April 28, 2025", "Price 13 weeks after its last time on the list": "$8.80, week of October 26, 2026", "Times it beat the rest of its set": "0 of 4" }, { "Card": "[Counter Catcher 120](/card/sm4-120)", "Set": "[Crimson Invasion](/set/crimson%20invasion)", "Price the first week it made the list": "$13.58, week of April 28, 2025", "Price 13 weeks after its last time on the list": "$5.84, week of October 26, 2026", "Times it beat the rest of its set": "0 of 4" }, { "Card": "[Counter Gain 230](/card/sm8-230)", "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)", "Price the first week it made the list": "$18.45, week of April 28, 2025", "Price 13 weeks after its last time on the list": "$9.03, week of October 26, 2026", "Times it beat the rest of its set": "0 of 4" }, { "Card": "[Lisia 164](/card/sm7-164)", "Set": "[Celestial Storm](/set/celestial%20storm)", "Price the first week it made the list": "$277.20, week of July 28, 2025", "Price 13 weeks after its last time on the list": "$210.06, week of October 26, 2026", "Times it beat the rest of its set": "0 of 4" }, { "Card": "[Nessa 183](/card/swsh4-183)", "Set": "[Vivid Voltage](/set/vivid%20voltage)", "Price the first week it made the list": "$13.64, week of April 28, 2025", "Price 13 weeks after its last time on the list": "$10.06, week of July 27, 2026", "Times it beat the rest of its set": "2 of 4" } ] }, { "title": "Every card on the list priced $400 or more the week it was picked, and the next 13 weeks. Rows whose recorded price sat flat for months and then jumped, or never moved, are flagged", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Week on the list", "13 weeks before", "That week", "13 weeks later", "Card's move", "Rest of its set", "Flag" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Jolteon Star](/card/ex16-101)", "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)", "Week on the list": "April 28, 2025", "13 weeks before": "$760.00", "That week": "$720.00", "13 weeks later": "$720.00", "Card's move": "+0.0%", "Rest of its set": "+8.8%", "Flag": "same price all 13 weeks" }, { "Card": "[Gengar VMAX 271](/card/swsh8-271)", "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)", "Week on the list": "April 28, 2025", "13 weeks before": "$732.91", "That week": "$592.98", "13 weeks later": "$585.95", "Card's move": "-1.2%", "Rest of its set": "+1.8%", "Flag": "" }, { "Card": "[Vaporeon Star](/card/ex16-102)", "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)", "Week on the list": "April 28, 2025", "13 weeks before": "$618.33", "That week": "$588.75", "13 weeks later": "$1,999.99", "Card's move": "+239.7%", "Rest of its set": "+8.8%", "Flag": "flat, then a jump" }, { "Card": "[Giratina V 186](/card/swsh11-186)", "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)", "Week on the list": "April 28, 2025", "13 weeks before": "$662.62", "That week": "$585.36", "13 weeks later": "$498.95", "Card's move": "-14.8%", "Rest of its set": "-0.2%", "Flag": "" }, { "Card": "[Kyogre-EX 104](/card/bw5-104)", "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers)", "Week on the list": "October 27, 2025", "13 weeks before": "$500.00", "That week": "$429.99", "13 weeks later": "$429.99", "Card's move": "+0.0%", "Rest of its set": "+8.3%", "Flag": "same price all 13 weeks" }, { "Card": "[Latias & Latios GX 170](/card/sm9-170)", "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Week on the list": "April 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$2,669.22", "That week": "$2,495.66", "13 weeks later": "$3,783.56", "Card's move": "+51.6%", "Rest of its set": "+13.7%", "Flag": "big weekly swings" }, { "Card": "[Magikarp & Wailord GX 161](/card/sm9-161)", "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Week on the list": "April 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$1,014.68", "That week": "$880.13", "13 weeks later": "$861.78", "Card's move": "-2.1%", "Rest of its set": "+13.7%", "Flag": "" }, { "Card": "[Giratina V 186](/card/swsh11-186)", "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)", "Week on the list": "April 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$659.88", "That week": "$663.12", "13 weeks later": "$858.62", "Card's move": "+29.5%", "Rest of its set": "+7.0%", "Flag": "" }, { "Card": "[Charizard GX 150](/card/sm3-150)", "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows)", "Week on the list": "April 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$565.91", "That week": "$484.21", "13 weeks later": "$607.28", "Card's move": "+25.4%", "Rest of its set": "+13.3%", "Flag": "" }, { "Card": "[Vaporeon Star](/card/ex16-102)", "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)", "Week on the list": "April 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$1,999.99", "That week": "$457.00", "13 weeks later": "no weekly price", "Card's move": "not measured", "Rest of its set": "+9.9%", "Flag": "flat, then a jump" }, { "Card": "[Magikarp & Wailord GX 161](/card/sm9-161)", "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Week on the list": "July 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$880.13", "That week": "$861.78", "13 weeks later": "$904.13", "Card's move": "+4.9%", "Rest of its set": "+11.3%", "Flag": "" }, { "Card": "[Groudon-EX 106](/card/bw5-106)", "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers)", "Week on the list": "July 27, 2026", "13 weeks before": "$450.31", "That week": "$427.46", "13 weeks later": "$427.46", "Card's move": "+0.0%", "Rest of its set": "+5.3%", "Flag": "same price all 13 weeks" } ] }, { "title": "The gap between the weakest and the rest of their set, the middle of the set-by-set, date-by-date gaps, in points (minus means behind)", "columns": [ "How it was run", "Picks", "Gap", "Likely range" ], "rows": [ { "How it was run": "main, all 32 sets: three weakest, six dates, buy that week", "Picks": "516", "Gap": "-2.2", "Likely range": "-4.4 to +1.0" }, { "How it was run": "Sun & Moon sets only", "Picks": "252", "Gap": "-4.3", "Likely range": "-6.4 to -1.9" }, { "How it was run": "every set except Sun & Moon", "Picks": "264", "Gap": "+1.4", "Likely range": "-2.6 to +5.3" }, { "How it was run": "all sets, buy one week later", "Picks": "516", "Gap": "-2.4", "Likely range": "-4.1 to -0.3" }, { "How it was run": "all sets, five weakest instead of three", "Picks": "860", "Gap": "-3.6", "Likely range": "-5.4 to -1.9" }, { "How it was run": "all sets, a new date every four weeks, 17 dates, overlapping", "Picks": "1,455", "Gap": "-3.8", "Likely range": "-5.3 to -1.8" }, { "How it was run": "all sets, promo, deck and trainer kit sets put back in", "Picks": "660", "Gap": "-2.3", "Likely range": "-3.5 to 0.0" }, { "How it was run": "all sets, the July 27, 2026 date left out", "Picks": "420", "Gap": "-3.1", "Likely range": "-5.1 to +0.6" }, { "How it was run": "all sets, leaving out any card whose weekly price doubled or halved in one step", "Picks": "516", "Gap": "-2.0", "Likely range": "-4.4 to +1.0" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Share of the weakest that beat the typical card in their own set over the next 13 weeks", "unit": "%", "note": "Each bar is one group of picks. The last bar is the rate for cards from the rest of the set, for scale.", "points": [ { "label": "Sun & Moon, on the list for the second quarter running", "value": 15.4, "basis": "39 picks, 14 sets" }, { "label": "Sun & Moon, $10 and up", "value": 30.5, "basis": "151 picks, 14 sets" }, { "label": "Sun & Moon, under $10", "value": 41, "basis": "100 picks, 14 sets" }, { "label": "Other sets, $10 and up", "value": 41.2, "basis": "136 picks, 16 sets" }, { "label": "Other sets, on the list for the second quarter running", "value": 57.1, "basis": "28 picks, 13 sets" }, { "label": "Other sets, under $10", "value": 62.8, "basis": "121 picks, 18 sets" }, { "label": "Any card from the rest of the set", "value": 47.5, "basis": "5,147 cards checked" } ] } ], "sections": [ "Sun & Moon's weakest kept losing ground, and other sets' weakest held even", "How many caught up, slid further, or sat still", "Price and a second quarter on the list, inside and outside Sun & Moon", "Nine ways of running it", "How this fits with what we've already published", "What the list has meant so far" ], "method": [ "Source: the per-card weekly price series this site stores for each TCGplayer product (the `ppthist:` records), which holds the market price our provider recorded for the product, weekly before the last 60 days and daily within them, merged with our own readings. 5,041 of the 27,576 English series reach back to January 27, 2025. The pull was made once on November 15, 2026 at 12:07 UTC, by primary key, and every figure here was computed offline from that copy. Catalogue: 28,054 English catalogue rows carry a TCGplayer product id. 325 rows claim an id already claimed by another English row and were collapsed to the lower card id, leaving 27,729 products, of which 27,576 have a series. Sets: the catalogue's own set name. 71 catalogue sets were left out: every promo set, every trainer kit, every McDonald's Collection, the three Trick or Trade bundles, the three Battle Academy sets, World Championship Decks, Deck Exclusives, League & Championship Cards, Blister Exclusives, Jumbo Cards, First Partner Pack, First Partner Collection 2026, the two Classic Collections and the two Shiny Vault subsets. That leaves 21,344 products in 155 sets, and putting the 71 back is one of the runs in the table. Weekly price: the last reading in each Monday to Sunday week from January 27, 2025, or, if that week has none, the last reading in the two weeks before it, so a price dated to a week can be any day of that week. Dates: the weeks of April 28, 2025, July 28, 2025, October 27, 2025, January 26, 2026, April 27, 2026 and July 27, 2026, 13 weeks apart, so no two forward windows overlap. Entry on a date: a weekly price 13 weeks earlier of $5.00 or more (the list's own floor, MOVE_FLOOR in set-screen.ts) and a weekly price that week, which gave 5,887 card-dates. 85 were dropped because the 13 weeks before the date started before the set's release (release dates from our provider's set list), and 3 were dropped at the July 27, 2026 date because their series steps by more than 25% across September 7, 2026, when our pricing rule changed. No series was cut short. Sets with fewer than 10 entered cards on a date were dropped, 31 set-dates and 91 card-dates, leaving 5,708 card-dates on 1,244 cards in 172 set-dates across 32 sets. The list: each set's cards on each date ranked by their move over the 13 weeks before it, weakest first, ties broken by card id, and the first three taken, 516 picks on 385 cards. Forward move: the weekly price 13 weeks after the date over the price that week. The one-week-delay run uses weeks 1 and 14 after. Missing forward prices: 8 picks and 45 other card-dates, 52 products in all, 46 card-dates whose series ended before the forward week and 7 with a gap at it. Every product was looked up in our daily price table, and all 52 have daily prices from August 30, 2026 through November 15, 2026 (77 days for 49 of them, 76 for two, 52 for Flareon Star). They are left out, with both bounds in the callout. Points are percentage points. Gap: for each set and date, the median forward move of its three weakest minus the median of its other cards, and the published figure is the median of those gaps, so it is not the difference of the pooled medians. The card-by-card figures (price, era and price, repeats, set age, how far behind) are each pick's forward move minus the median of the rest of its own set on its own date, and the share that beat their set counts picks above that median. Comparing a pick only with cards from its own set in its own price range (under $10, $10 to $25, $25 to $100, $100 and up) needs three or more such cards, which 449 of the 508 measured picks have. Medians are upper-middle on even counts, one convention for every cell. Likely ranges are 95% intervals from 5,000 bootstrap draws that resample whole sets, every date of a set together, with a fixed seed. The Sun & Moon against other sets difference resamples sets within each side. Price groups use the price the week of the date. Era is read from the card id (sm Sun & Moon, swsh Sword & Shield, sv Scarlet & Violet, me Mega Evolution, xy and g1 XY, bw Black & White, ex EX). Black Bolt cards whose catalogue id carries no era code are counted as Scarlet & Violet. No set mixes eras, so the era runs are whole sets. The era cut came out of five cuts made after the pooled result (price, era, set age, how far behind, date). Whether a set had risen beforehand uses the median move of all its entered cards over the 13 weeks before the date; whether the rest rose afterwards uses the median forward move of its non-picks, which is not known on the date. Set age is the date minus the release date. Second quarter on the list: a pick that was also among its set's three weakest at the previous date. First time counts only dates from July 28, 2025, which have a previous date. The chance rate for a repeat is the average, over the 392 picks still qualifying a quarter later, of 3 divided by the number of qualifying cards in the set at that next date. The doubled-or-halved run drops any card-date whose weekly price more than doubles or falls below half from one available week to the next anywhere from 13 weeks before to 14 weeks after the date, 37 card-dates. The $400 table lists every pick priced $400 or more the week of its date, with no row left out. Cost floors: 14.94% is 1 divided by 0.87 minus 1, fees and postage on a sale. 24.14% is 1.08 divided by 0.87 minus 1, adding an 8% gap for buying at the ask. They are the same two floors [Never Buy the Small Dip](/articles/drawdown-timing) uses. The dataset and the scripts that produced every number here are kept for an independent recompute." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }