{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/does-momentum-work-in-pokemon",
  "slug": "does-momentum-work-in-pokemon",
  "title": "Does Momentum Work in Pokémon Cards? 28,288 Observations Say Yes, With a Catch",
  "summary": "We ran a point-in-time backtest over 28,288 card-month observations from our recorded price curves. A card up 25 to 50 percent over the prior 90 days beat its cohort by 4.7 points over the next 90; a flat card lagged by 4.0. Momentum persists. The catch: in the modern era, a card already up more than 50 percent reverses hard, losing 10.6 points.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-06",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "28,288",
      "measures": "point-in-time observations",
      "basis": "3,298 cards, no lookahead"
    },
    {
      "value": "+4.7 pts",
      "measures": "90-day alpha, cards up 25-50% prior",
      "basis": "vs the same-window cohort"
    },
    {
      "value": "-4.0 pts",
      "measures": "90-day alpha, flat cards",
      "basis": "the worst place to be"
    },
    {
      "value": "-10.6 pts",
      "measures": "modern cards already up >50%",
      "basis": "where momentum reverses"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "90-day forward alpha by trailing-90-day return",
      "columns": [
        "Trailing 90d",
        "Observations",
        "Fwd 90d alpha",
        "Win rate"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "down >20%",
          "Observations": "886",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "+0.3 pts",
          "Win rate": "37.7%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "down 10-20%",
          "Observations": "1,633",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "-1.0 pts",
          "Win rate": "37.8%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "down 3-10%",
          "Observations": "3,056",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "-2.5 pts",
          "Win rate": "29.5%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "flat (-3 to +3%)",
          "Observations": "7,029",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "-4.0 pts",
          "Win rate": "23.0%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "up 3-10%",
          "Observations": "4,790",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "-0.1 pts",
          "Win rate": "34.8%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "up 10-25%",
          "Observations": "5,623",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "+2.7 pts",
          "Win rate": "43.4%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "up 25-50%",
          "Observations": "3,180",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "+4.7 pts",
          "Win rate": "47.9%"
        },
        {
          "Trailing 90d": "up >50%",
          "Observations": "2,091",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "+4.0 pts",
          "Win rate": "43.3%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Stair vs spike, within the 15-50% momentum band",
      "columns": [
        "Shape",
        "Observations",
        "Fwd 90d alpha",
        "Win rate"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Shape": "stair (three rising months)",
          "Observations": "2,800",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "+4.8 pts",
          "Win rate": "50.4%"
        },
        {
          "Shape": "spike (same run, one window)",
          "Observations": "3,553",
          "Fwd 90d alpha": "+3.7 pts",
          "Win rate": "44.0%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Momentum persists, and the shape of the curve is the finding",
    "The catch: modern parabolas revert",
    "The stair beats the spike"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Population: recorded per-card daily price curves with at least 20 points (7,053 cards). Eval dates every 30 days require 104 days of prior history and 90 days of forward history, giving 28,288 card-month observations across 3,298 cards, June 2025 to June 2026. Price at a date is the last recorded point within 13 days; every signal is computed strictly from points on or before the eval date, every forward return strictly after, so there is no lookahead. Alpha is the forward return minus the equal-weight mean of all cards evaluated in the same 30-day window (14 cohorts), which nets out the sample's valuable-set skew in level. Win rate is the share of observations with positive alpha. No signal is reported without at least 200 observations and a consistent sign across the 30/60/90-day windows. The deep curves cover bought sets and skew toward the SM/SWSH eras; see the boundary note."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}