{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/does-psa-population-lower-price",
  "slug": "does-psa-population-lower-price",
  "title": "Does a Big PSA Population Lower the Price?",
  "summary": "Across 3,606 cards, registry size and the PSA 10 premium correlate at -0.46. The premium falls from 18.07x to 3.87x by population quintile. The price does not.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 10,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "-0.46",
      "measures": "registry size against the PSA 10 premium",
      "basis": "Spearman, 3,606 cards, September 22, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "+0.11",
      "measures": "registry size against the PSA 10 price itself",
      "basis": "the same 3,606 cards. Population does not push the price down"
    },
    {
      "value": "18.07x to 3.87x",
      "measures": "median premium, smallest to largest population quintile",
      "basis": "721 or 722 cards per quintile"
    },
    {
      "value": "-0.62",
      "measures": "the PSA 10 count against the premium",
      "basis": "how many tens exist beats how many slabs exist"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Every rank correlation in this study (3,606 cards, September 22, 2026)",
      "columns": [
        "Pair",
        "Spearman"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Pair": "PSA 10 count against the premium",
          "Spearman": "-0.62"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "Gem rate against the premium",
          "Spearman": "-0.55"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "Raw ask against the premium",
          "Spearman": "-0.50"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "Registry total against the premium",
          "Spearman": "-0.46"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "Registry total against the raw ask",
          "Spearman": "+0.37"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "Registry total against the gem rate",
          "Spearman": "+0.17"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "Registry total against the PSA 10 sold median",
          "Spearman": "+0.11"
        },
        {
          "Pair": "PSA 10 count against the registry total",
          "Spearman": "+0.90"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Premium by population quintile",
      "columns": [
        "Quintile",
        "Cards",
        "Registry range",
        "Median registry",
        "Median premium",
        "Median raw ask",
        "Median PSA 10 sold"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Quintile": "1 (smallest)",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Registry range": "1 to 468",
          "Median registry": "283",
          "Median premium": "18.07x",
          "Median raw ask": "$9.72",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$150.00"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "2",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Registry range": "468 to 1,142",
          "Median registry": "743",
          "Median premium": "14.07x",
          "Median raw ask": "$10.34",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$107.24"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "3",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Registry range": "1,143 to 2,319",
          "Median registry": "1,591",
          "Median premium": "9.81x",
          "Median raw ask": "$15.34",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$111.75"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "4",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Registry range": "2,327 to 5,994",
          "Median registry": "3,540",
          "Median premium": "7.34x",
          "Median raw ask": "$22.82",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$122.50"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "5 (largest)",
          "Cards": "722",
          "Registry range": "5,995 to 332,353",
          "Median registry": "12,184",
          "Median premium": "3.87x",
          "Median raw ask": "$52.17",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$199.25"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Premium by gem-rate quintile",
      "columns": [
        "Quintile",
        "Cards",
        "Gem rate range",
        "Median gem rate",
        "Median premium",
        "Median raw ask",
        "Median PSA 10 sold"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Quintile": "1 (hardest)",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Gem rate range": "0% to 25.66%",
          "Median gem rate": "16.24%",
          "Median premium": "24.29x",
          "Median raw ask": "$32.14",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$651.00"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "2",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Gem rate range": "25.69% to 41.07%",
          "Median gem rate": "33.82%",
          "Median premium": "11.81x",
          "Median raw ask": "$15.76",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$180.00"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "3",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Gem rate range": "41.15% to 54.74%",
          "Median gem rate": "48.30%",
          "Median premium": "9.06x",
          "Median raw ask": "$12.21",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$103.50"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "4",
          "Cards": "721",
          "Gem rate range": "54.75% to 69.48%",
          "Median gem rate": "61.86%",
          "Median premium": "7.65x",
          "Median raw ask": "$11.59",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$83.50"
        },
        {
          "Quintile": "5 (easiest)",
          "Cards": "722",
          "Gem rate range": "69.55% to 100%",
          "Median gem rate": "83.90%",
          "Median premium": "3.71x",
          "Median raw ask": "$21.42",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$76.83"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Premium in four cells, split at the median registry (1,591) and the median gem rate (48.39%)",
      "columns": [
        "Cell",
        "Cards",
        "Median premium",
        "Median raw ask",
        "Median PSA 10 sold"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Cell": "Small registry, hard gate",
          "Cards": "1,021",
          "Median premium": "20.03x",
          "Median raw ask": "$14.56",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$267.00"
        },
        {
          "Cell": "Big registry, hard gate",
          "Cards": "782",
          "Median premium": "11.12x",
          "Median raw ask": "$35.12",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$299.99"
        },
        {
          "Cell": "Small registry, easy gate",
          "Cards": "781",
          "Median premium": "10.37x",
          "Median raw ask": "$6.98",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$62.50"
        },
        {
          "Cell": "Big registry, easy gate",
          "Cards": "1,022",
          "Median premium": "3.78x",
          "Median raw ask": "$26.72",
          "Median PSA 10 sold": "$99.24"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Population still bites inside a gem-rate band",
      "columns": [
        "Gem rate band",
        "Cards",
        "Median premium, smallest third of registries",
        "Median premium, largest third"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Gem rate band": "Under 20%",
          "Cards": "500",
          "Median premium, smallest third of registries": "31.82x",
          "Median premium, largest third": "21.54x"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate band": "20% to 40%",
          "Cards": "886",
          "Median premium, smallest third of registries": "22.81x",
          "Median premium, largest third": "8.90x"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate band": "40% to 60%",
          "Cards": "1,024",
          "Median premium, smallest third of registries": "14.84x",
          "Median premium, largest third": "4.54x"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate band": "60% to 80%",
          "Cards": "722",
          "Median premium, smallest third of registries": "13.17x",
          "Median premium, largest third": "3.75x"
        },
        {
          "Gem rate band": "80% and up",
          "Cards": "474",
          "Median premium, smallest third of registries": "4.12x",
          "Median premium, largest third": "2.28x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The deepest PSA 10 counts we can price",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Recorded tens",
        "Registry",
        "Gem rate",
        "Raw ask",
        "PSA 10 sold",
        "Premium"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/jat-649586)",
          "Set": "M-P Promotional Cards",
          "Recorded tens": "290,960",
          "Registry": "332,353",
          "Gem rate": "87.55%",
          "Raw ask": "$34.46",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$77.78",
          "Premium": "2.26x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[ブラッキーex](/card/ja-SV8a-217)",
          "Set": "Terastal Festival ex",
          "Recorded tens": "81,471",
          "Registry": "93,752",
          "Gem rate": "86.90%",
          "Raw ask": "$413.34",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$527.50",
          "Premium": "1.28x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/jat-587758)",
          "Set": "SV-P Promotional Cards",
          "Recorded tens": "78,423",
          "Registry": "95,072",
          "Gem rate": "82.49%",
          "Raw ask": "$21.26",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$103.50",
          "Premium": "4.87x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/mep-023)",
          "Set": "MEP Black Star Promos",
          "Recorded tens": "52,989",
          "Registry": "110,448",
          "Gem rate": "47.98%",
          "Raw ask": "$28.81",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$150.01",
          "Premium": "5.21x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[ニンフィアex](/card/ja-SV8a-212)",
          "Set": "Terastal Festival ex",
          "Recorded tens": "52,741",
          "Registry": "59,083",
          "Gem rate": "89.27%",
          "Raw ask": "$141.38",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$162.32",
          "Premium": "1.15x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/jat-655886)",
          "Set": "M2: Inferno X",
          "Recorded tens": "52,401",
          "Registry": "60,379",
          "Gem rate": "86.79%",
          "Raw ask": "$711.63",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$846.50",
          "Premium": "1.19x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard V](/card/swshp-SWSH050)",
          "Set": "SWSH Black Star Promos",
          "Recorded tens": "51,135",
          "Registry": "90,859",
          "Gem rate": "56.28%",
          "Raw ask": "$13.21",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$86.50",
          "Premium": "6.55x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat](/card/svp-085)",
          "Set": "SVP Black Star Promos",
          "Recorded tens": "50,108",
          "Registry": "117,640",
          "Gem rate": "42.59%",
          "Raw ask": "$1,066.19",
          "PSA 10 sold": "$2,550.00",
          "Premium": "2.39x"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The premium compresses. The price does not.",
    "Gem rate is the stronger lever",
    "The ends of the distribution",
    "What this study cannot show",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: rows of `cards` with a TCGplayer product id holding a latest `price_history` ask above zero (day 20718, September 22, 2026), a latest `graded_snapshots` PSA 10 sold median on ten or more verified comps, and a `population_snapshots` reading that survives the shared-line rule, the registry continuity rule and the trusted-gem-count rule described in our registry methodology. No floor on registry size is applied, because a floor would remove exactly the small registries the study is about. Rows are collapsed to one per product id. That is 3,606 cards. Premium is the PSA 10 sold median divided by the raw ask. Correlations are Spearman rank correlations with average ranks on ties, computed on the full 3,606 unless a band is stated. Quintiles are equal-count cuts of that population. Medians are upper-middle on even samples. The prior version of this study, on 48 cards, is [population giants](/articles/psa10-population-giants); this one supersedes its correlation and quintile figures and reproduces its sign and magnitude. Related: [print-run archaeology](/articles/print-run-archaeology), [the registry is closed](/articles/the-registry-is-closed), [easy grades are cheap grades](/articles/easy-grades-are-cheap-grades). Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}