{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/drawdown-timing", "slug": "drawdown-timing", "title": "Never Buy the Small Dip: Cards Just Under Their Own High Made 4.52% Over Three Months, Cards At Their High Made 9.27%", "summary": "Across 79,786 weekly readings on 1,376 English cards priced $5 and up, the worst moment to buy was not the crash. It was the small pullback. A card sitting 5 to 10 percent under its own high returned 4.52% over the next 13 weeks and only 17.04% of those buys covered the cost of getting in and out, against 9.27% and 22.95% for the same cards when they sat at their high. Cards 40 percent or more below their high beat both. And inside a deep fall the calendar matters more than the discount: at the same 30 to 40 percent depth, the first four weeks of the fall came in slightly under their cohort and the fifth week onward came in 6.8 points above it.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-09-29", "readMinutes": 11, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "+4.52%", "measures": "median 13 week return buying 5 to 10% under the high", "basis": "9,278 observations on 998 cards" }, { "value": "+9.27%", "measures": "median 13 week return buying within 5% of the high", "basis": "53,545 observations on 1,370 cards" }, { "value": "4.5 points", "measures": "the gap, against the same week and same price band", "basis": "95% interval 3.6 to 5.4 points, clustered by card" }, { "value": "17.04%", "measures": "of small dip buys cleared the round trip cost", "basis": "against 22.95% of buys at the high" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Forward 13 week return by distance below the card's own running high, 79,786 observations on 1,376 cards", "columns": [ "Distance below its own high", "Observations", "Cards", "Median return", "Mean return", "Excess vs cohort", "Clears 14.94%", "Clears 24.14%" ], "rows": [ { "Distance below its own high": "within 5%", "Observations": "53,545", "Cards": "1,370", "Median return": "+9.27%", "Mean return": "+14.35%", "Excess vs cohort": "+0.7", "Clears 14.94%": "36.96%", "Clears 24.14%": "22.95%" }, { "Distance below its own high": "5 to 10% below", "Observations": "9,278", "Cards": "998", "Median return": "+4.52%", "Mean return": "+10.05%", "Excess vs cohort": "-3.8", "Clears 14.94%": "27.24%", "Clears 24.14%": "17.04%" }, { "Distance below its own high": "10 to 20% below", "Observations": "9,449", "Cards": "745", "Median return": "+6.13%", "Mean return": "+11.71%", "Excess vs cohort": "-2.1", "Clears 14.94%": "31.55%", "Clears 24.14%": "19.80%" }, { "Distance below its own high": "20 to 30% below", "Observations": "4,375", "Cards": "413", "Median return": "+9.01%", "Mean return": "+14.70%", "Excess vs cohort": "+0.7", "Clears 14.94%": "38.19%", "Clears 24.14%": "25.35%" }, { "Distance below its own high": "30 to 40% below", "Observations": "1,934", "Cards": "191", "Median return": "+10.09%", "Mean return": "+16.97%", "Excess vs cohort": "+2.5", "Clears 14.94%": "39.76%", "Clears 24.14%": "27.30%" }, { "Distance below its own high": "40 to 50% below", "Observations": "836", "Cards": "95", "Median return": "+13.97%", "Mean return": "+23.66%", "Excess vs cohort": "+9.1", "Clears 14.94%": "48.56%", "Clears 24.14%": "37.92%" }, { "Distance below its own high": "50% or more below", "Observations": "369", "Cards": "34", "Median return": "+16.67%", "Mean return": "+21.15%", "Excess vs cohort": "+7.3", "Clears 14.94%": "52.03%", "Clears 24.14%": "37.94%" } ] }, { "title": "The 5 to 10 percent band's excess against its cohort, under six specifications", "columns": [ "Specification", "Observations", "Excess vs cohort", "Clears 24.14%", "Lowest of the seven bands" ], "rows": [ { "Specification": "main: state and entry in the same week, 13 weeks forward", "Observations": "9,278", "Excess vs cohort": "-3.8", "Clears 24.14%": "17.04%", "Lowest of the seven bands": "yes" }, { "Specification": "entry lagged one week after the state is read", "Observations": "9,161", "Excess vs cohort": "-3.4", "Clears 24.14%": "17.41%", "Lowest of the seven bands": "yes" }, { "Specification": "observations whose price had not moved in four weeks dropped", "Observations": "9,125", "Excess vs cohort": "-3.7", "Clears 24.14%": "17.13%", "Lowest of the seven bands": "yes" }, { "Specification": "13 weeks of prior history required before an observation counts", "Observations": "8,421", "Excess vs cohort": "-3.3", "Clears 24.14%": "17.79%", "Lowest of the seven bands": "yes" }, { "Specification": "8 weeks forward instead of 13", "Observations": "10,130", "Excess vs cohort": "-3.0", "Clears 24.14%": "7.73%", "Lowest of the seven bands": "yes" }, { "Specification": "26 weeks forward instead of 13", "Observations": "7,237", "Excess vs cohort": "-6.4", "Clears 24.14%": "35.62%", "Lowest of the seven bands": "yes" } ] }, { "title": "What each state looks like backwards", "columns": [ "Distance below its own high", "Median trailing 13 week return", "Weeks since the high was set, median" ], "rows": [ { "Distance below its own high": "within 5%", "Median trailing 13 week return": "+15.19%", "Weeks since the high was set, median": "1" }, { "Distance below its own high": "5 to 10% below", "Median trailing 13 week return": "+0.94%", "Weeks since the high was set, median": "11" }, { "Distance below its own high": "10 to 20% below", "Median trailing 13 week return": "-3.06%", "Weeks since the high was set, median": "18" }, { "Distance below its own high": "20 to 30% below", "Median trailing 13 week return": "-7.27%", "Weeks since the high was set, median": "24" }, { "Distance below its own high": "30% or more below", "Median trailing 13 week return": "-11.09%", "Weeks since the high was set, median": "24" } ] }, { "title": "What happened after the week a card first crossed 30 percent below its high", "columns": [ "Reading", "All 196 episodes", "The 178 with 13 or more weeks of readings after" ], "rows": [ { "Reading": "bottomed in the crossing week", "All 196 episodes": "15.31%", "The 178 with 13 or more weeks of readings after": "12.92%" }, { "Reading": "weeks from the crossing week to the low, median", "All 196 episodes": "6", "The 178 with 13 or more weeks of readings after": "7" }, { "Reading": "further fall from the crossing price to the low, median", "All 196 episodes": "-10.08%", "The 178 with 13 or more weeks of readings after": "-10.70%" }, { "Reading": "trough against the prior high, median", "All 196 episodes": "-38.71%", "The 178 with 13 or more weeks of readings after": "-39.67%" }, { "Reading": "low arrived four or more weeks later", "All 196 episodes": "64.80%", "The 178 with 13 or more weeks of readings after": "not stated separately" } ] }, { "title": "The clock inside one fixed depth: cards 30 to 40 percent below their own high", "columns": [ "Weeks already spent 30% or more below the high", "Observations", "Cards", "Median return", "Excess vs cohort", "Clears 14.94%", "Clears 24.14%" ], "rows": [ { "Weeks already spent 30% or more below the high": "1 to 4", "Observations": "802", "Cards": "180", "Median return": "+5.20%", "Excess vs cohort": "-1.5", "Clears 14.94%": "29.93%", "Clears 24.14%": "19.58%" }, { "Weeks already spent 30% or more below the high": "5 or more", "Observations": "1,132", "Cards": "144", "Median return": "+13.36%", "Excess vs cohort": "+5.4", "Clears 14.94%": "46.73%", "Clears 24.14%": "32.77%" } ] }, { "title": "Cards priced $5 and up that have held 30 percent or more below a high they actually held, week of 21 September 2026", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Price now", "Its own high", "Weeks the high held", "Below the high", "Weeks already under" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Kyogre-EX](/card/bw5-104)", "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers)", "Price now": "$316.48", "Its own high": "$500.00", "Weeks the high held": "17", "Below the high": "-36.7%", "Weeks already under": "11" }, { "Card": "[Lisia](/card/sm7-164)", "Set": "[Celestial Storm](/set/celestial%20storm)", "Price now": "$204.75", "Its own high": "$293.00", "Weeks the high held": "15", "Below the high": "-30.1%", "Weeks already under": "20" }, { "Card": "[Celesteela GX](/card/sm5-162)", "Set": "[Ultra Prism](/set/ultra%20prism)", "Price now": "$27.49", "Its own high": "$43.03", "Weeks the high held": "6", "Below the high": "-36.1%", "Weeks already under": "21" }, { "Card": "[Field Blower](/card/sm2-163)", "Set": "[Guardians Rising](/set/guardians%20rising)", "Price now": "$18.56", "Its own high": "$32.26", "Weeks the high held": "8", "Below the high": "-42.5%", "Weeks already under": "36" }, { "Card": "[Escape Rope](/card/sm3-163)", "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows)", "Price now": "$16.77", "Its own high": "$27.57", "Weeks the high held": "8", "Below the high": "-39.2%", "Weeks already under": "28" }, { "Card": "[Rescue Stretcher](/card/sm3-165)", "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows)", "Price now": "$12.68", "Its own high": "$20.80", "Weeks the high held": "8", "Below the high": "-39.0%", "Weeks already under": "44" }, { "Card": "[Tag Call](/card/sm12-270)", "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)", "Price now": "$10.85", "Its own high": "$15.81", "Weeks the high held": "5", "Below the high": "-31.4%", "Weeks already under": "39" }, { "Card": "[Nest Ball (Sun & Moon)](/card/sm1-158)", "Set": "Sun & Moon", "Price now": "$9.23", "Its own high": "$27.32", "Weeks the high held": "3", "Below the high": "-66.2%", "Weeks already under": "46" }, { "Card": "[Counter Gain](/card/sm8-230)", "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)", "Price now": "$8.75", "Its own high": "$19.23", "Weeks the high held": "8", "Below the high": "-54.5%", "Weeks already under": "31" }, { "Card": "[Counter Catcher](/card/sm4-120)", "Set": "[Crimson Invasion](/set/crimson%20invasion)", "Price now": "$7.26", "Its own high": "$16.75", "Weeks the high held": "5", "Below the high": "-56.7%", "Weeks already under": "24" }, { "Card": "[Max Potion](/card/sm2-164)", "Set": "[Guardians Rising](/set/guardians%20rising)", "Price now": "$6.81", "Its own high": "$9.91", "Weeks the high held": "5", "Below the high": "-31.3%", "Weeks already under": "14" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Share of buys that covered the round trip, by distance below the card's own high", "unit": "%", "note": "13 week gross move against the 24.14% cost floor, 79,786 observations", "points": [ { "label": "within 5% of the high", "value": 22.95, "basis": "53,545 observations, 1,370 cards" }, { "label": "5 to 10% below", "value": 17.04, "basis": "9,278 observations, 998 cards" }, { "label": "10 to 20% below", "value": 19.8, "basis": "9,449 observations, 745 cards" }, { "label": "20 to 30% below", "value": 25.35, "basis": "4,375 observations, 413 cards" }, { "label": "30 to 40% below", "value": 27.3, "basis": "1,934 observations, 191 cards" }, { "label": "40 to 50% below", "value": 37.92, "basis": "836 observations, 95 cards" }, { "label": "50% or more below", "value": 37.94, "basis": "369 observations, 34 cards" } ] } ], "sections": [ "The discount curve runs the wrong way", "The gap, with an interval that respects overlapping windows", "It is not just the invisible first leg of crashes", "The specification does not rescue it either", "A card a few percent off its high is not a discount, it is a card that stopped", "The deep fall, and why the fifth week is the line", "The three states, and the cards in the third one today" ], "method": [ "Source: the recorded per-card weekly price series this site accretes, which is the TCGplayer market price read weekly on a Monday from 27 January 2025, thickening to daily readings from late July 2026. Every reading is snapped to its Monday and the last reading in a week is that week's price, giving 87 weekly slots from 2025-01-27 to 2026-09-21; the partial week beginning 2026-09-28 is dropped. Two of the 87 slots are thin in the source (the weeks of 2026-08-10 and 2026-08-17 carry 7,925 and 5,313 of the 29,862 series), so continuity is required at the ends rather than in every slot: a series enters the pool if it has a reading on 2025-01-27 and a reading in the last four weekly slots. Funnel: 29,862 series, 5,431 with a 2025-01-27 reading, 4,993 still quoted in the last four slots, 2,679 joining exactly one English catalogue row. Catalogue join: 50,504 TCGplayer product ids appear in the catalogue and 1,215 of them are claimed by two rows each, almost always the same set spelled twice, so rows are filtered to English first and the 243 product ids still doubled after that are resolved to the lower card id, which is the rule the index builder uses. An observation is a card and a week where the card is priced at $5.00 or more and a reading exists 13 weekly slots later, which gives entry weeks from 2025-01-27 to 2026-06-22, 74 slots, and 79,786 observations on 1,376 cards. Price bands are $5 to $10 (26,899 observations), $10 to $25 (24,280), $25 to $100 (21,223) and $100 and up (7,384). Distance below the high is the week's price against the highest weekly price recorded for that card up to and including that week, so the first reading of every series is its own high by construction; the fourth specification in the table above re-runs everything requiring 13 weeks of prior history and the result moves by half a point. Excess is the observation's 13 week return minus the mean 13 week return of every observation in the same weekly slot and the same price band, reported in points to one decimal. Every interval quoted is a 1,000-draw bootstrap that resamples cards rather than observations, because each card contributes about nine overlapping windows and a per-observation interval would be several parts too narrow. Cost floors: 14.94% is 1 divided by 0.87 minus 1, fees and postage on the sale only; 24.14% is 1.08 divided by 0.87 minus 1, adding an 8% entry gap, and it is the floor the pick engine gates on. Both are printed and never averaged. A weekly market price is neither an asking price a buyer can hit today nor a graded comp; it is a mark, and a 13 week return computed across marks is not a realised return. No set released inside the window can appear, because every card in the pool was already quoted on 2025-01-27, which is what rules out a launch collapse being read as a drawdown. Three published studies on this same series carry three pool sizes, and the reasons are mechanical rather than a disagreement: [The Drawdown Book](/articles/the-drawdown-book) used 2,417 cards with no catalogue join and no forward-window requirement, [How Far Do Pokemon Cards Fall](/articles/pokemon-card-drawdowns) and [How Long Do You Have to Hold a Pokemon Card](/articles/how-long-to-hold-a-pokemon-card) used 2,766 on a longer daily span, and this study's 1,376 is what remains after one row per product id, a $5 floor and 13 forward weeks on every observation. The Drawdown Book's unconditional +9.7% median and 76% positive over 90 days are near this pool's +8.35% and 73.98% over 13 weeks, which is agreement in the neighbourhood rather than a replication, because the pools and the horizons are not the same." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }