{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/fifteen-tens-from-twelve-thousand-tries", "slug": "fifteen-tens-from-twelve-thousand-tries", "title": "Fifteen Tens From 12,323 Tries: the Cards PSA Almost Never Gems", "summary": "Across 5,325 cards carrying 500 or more PSA submissions each, 24,950,782 submissions in total, the overall gem rate is 52.7%. That average hides both ends. 133 of those cards gem under 1% of the time and 702 gem over 80%. At the hard end the market stops trading the grade everyone chases: on the 100 hardest cards only 10 in 100 have a recorded PSA 10 sale while 82 have a PSA 9 sale, and on the 100 easiest that inverts to 74 and 25. On a hard card the 9 is the product.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-09-21", "readMinutes": 8, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "0.08%", "measures": "gem rate of the hardest English card we price", "basis": "Rayquaza C, one ten from 1,314 submissions" }, { "value": "88.3%", "measures": "gem rate of the easiest English card", "basis": "Rillaboom VMAX, 616 tens from 698 submissions" }, { "value": "52.7%", "measures": "overall, across 24,950,782 submissions", "basis": "an average almost no individual card sits near" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "The hardest cards to gem, 500 or more submissions", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "PSA 10s / submissions", "Gem rate", "Raw", "PSA 9 median" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Rayquaza C](/card/dpp-DP47)", "Set": "DP Black Star Promos", "PSA 10s / submissions": "1 / 1,314", "Gem rate": "0.08%", "Raw": "$471.25", "PSA 9 median": "$3,875.00 (5 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Typhlosion](/card/neo1-17)", "Set": "[Neo Genesis](/set/neo-genesis)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "4 / 4,270", "Gem rate": "0.09%", "Raw": "$199.78", "PSA 9 median": "$4,932.50 (9 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Blissey](/card/neo3-2)", "Set": "[Neo Revelation](/set/neo-revelation)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "1 / 1,047", "Gem rate": "0.10%", "Raw": "$126.41", "PSA 9 median": "$122.50 (4 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Mew δ](/card/pop5-3)", "Set": "POP Series 5", "PSA 10s / submissions": "2 / 1,649", "Gem rate": "0.12%", "Raw": "$149.59", "PSA 9 median": "no recorded sales" }, { "Card": "[Lugia](/card/neo1-9)", "Set": "[Neo Genesis](/set/neo-genesis)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "15 / 12,323", "Gem rate": "0.12%", "Raw": "$518.99", "PSA 9 median": "$18,534.12 (16 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Ho-Oh ex](/card/pop3-17)", "Set": "POP Series 3", "PSA 10s / submissions": "1 / 734", "Gem rate": "0.14%", "Raw": "$125.00", "PSA 9 median": "no recorded sales" }, { "Card": "[Latios](/card/xyp-XY79)", "Set": "XY Black Star Promos", "PSA 10s / submissions": "2 / 1,389", "Gem rate": "0.14%", "Raw": "$131.97", "PSA 9 median": "$980.00 (6 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Venusaur](/card/basep-13)", "Set": "Wizards Black Star Promos", "PSA 10s / submissions": "9 / 5,439", "Gem rate": "0.17%", "Raw": "$295.68", "PSA 9 median": "$527.50 (33 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Ampharos](/card/neo3-1)", "Set": "[Neo Revelation](/set/neo-revelation)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "2 / 1,147", "Gem rate": "0.17%", "Raw": "$77.67", "PSA 9 median": "$2,008.62 (24 sales)" } ] }, { "title": "The easiest cards to gem, English, 500 or more submissions", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "PSA 10s / submissions", "Gem rate", "Raw", "PSA 10 median" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Rillaboom VMAX](/card/swsh2-193)", "Set": "[Rebel Clash](/set/rebel-clash)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "616 / 698", "Gem rate": "88.3%", "Raw": "$12.34", "PSA 10 median": "$59.49 (24 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Toxtricity VMAX](/card/swsh2-196)", "Set": "[Rebel Clash](/set/rebel-clash)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "501 / 577", "Gem rate": "86.8%", "Raw": "$21.16", "PSA 10 median": "$128.25 (16 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Inteleon VMAX](/card/swsh2-195)", "Set": "[Rebel Clash](/set/rebel-clash)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "570 / 657", "Gem rate": "86.8%", "Raw": "$12.73", "PSA 10 median": "$74.99 (16 sales)" }, { "Card": "[Lapras VMAX](/card/swsh1-203)", "Set": "[Sword & Shield](/set/sword-shield)", "PSA 10s / submissions": "1,534 / 1,778", "Gem rate": "86.3%", "Raw": "$21.20", "PSA 10 median": "$50.00 (6 sales)" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Cards with a recorded sale at each grade", "unit": "%", "note": "Share of the 100 hardest and the 100 easiest cards in the pool", "points": [ { "label": "Hardest 100 · PSA 10 sale", "value": 10, "basis": null }, { "label": "Hardest 100 · PSA 9 sale", "value": 82, "basis": null }, { "label": "Easiest 100 · PSA 10 sale", "value": 74, "basis": null }, { "label": "Easiest 100 · PSA 9 sale", "value": 25, "basis": null } ] } ], "sections": [ "The hard end, named", "The easy end, and why it is cheap", "The market trades a different grade at each end", "What chasing one actually costs" ], "method": [ "Pool: every card where our recorded PSA registry snapshot carries 500 or more total submissions, which is 5,325 cards holding 24,950,782 submissions, of which 3,757 are English and 1,568 Japanese. Gem rate is recorded PSA 10 population divided by total population from the latest snapshot per card. Rows that cannot support a rate are excluded by the same trust rule the card pages use: a zero-ten reading is refused when the population exceeds 100, when PSA 9s are recorded, or when our own sold tape holds PSA 10 sales for the card, because a card that has sold as a PSA 10 demonstrably has PSA 10s whatever the registry says. Prices are the recorded TCGplayer market for raw and the verified eBay sold median for each grade, with the sale count shown beside every median. Expected submissions is the inverse of the gem rate and assumes each submission is independent, which overstates the odds for anyone submitting copies from the same source. Counted 2026-09-21; the registry is a snapshot and moves." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }