{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/first-90-days-new-set",
  "slug": "first-90-days-new-set",
  "title": "The First 90 Days: When to Buy Into a New Set",
  "summary": "We indexed ten straight set launches from release day and measured where the bottom actually is. There is a trough, it is deep, and it is skippable, but one set never traded below its release price and two more bottomed within a point and a half of it, and knowing which kind you are looking at is the entire game.",
  "section": "Analysis",
  "published": "2026-08-06",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "Day 40-90",
      "measures": "where the bottom lands in every dipping set",
      "basis": "four of four grinders with a full 90 days"
    },
    {
      "value": "−22%",
      "measures": "median trough depth across all ten launches",
      "basis": "range: 0% to −53%"
    },
    {
      "value": "1 of 10",
      "measures": "sets never traded below launch",
      "basis": "two more bottomed within 1.3%; all three were chase-led launches"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Set singles index from release week (release = 100)",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Released",
        "Trough",
        "Trough day",
        "Day 90",
        "Today"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "Released": "Jan 2025",
          "Trough": "99.3",
          "Trough day": "24",
          "Day 90": "96.9",
          "Today": "75.4"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Released": "Mar 2025",
          "Trough": "61.0",
          "Trough day": "87",
          "Day 90": "59.8",
          "Today": "54.1"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Released": "May 2025",
          "Trough": "98.7",
          "Trough day": "10",
          "Day 90": "102.6",
          "Today": "105.7"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt)",
          "Released": "Jul 2025",
          "Trough": "87.9",
          "Trough day": "45",
          "Day 90": "102.7",
          "Today": "154.5"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[White Flare](/set/white%20flare)",
          "Released": "Jul 2025",
          "Trough": "76.2",
          "Trough day": "52",
          "Day 90": "82.8",
          "Today": "123.0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution) (ME01)",
          "Released": "Sep 2025",
          "Trough": "52.4",
          "Trough day": "87",
          "Day 90": "51.7",
          "Today": "53.1"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Released": "Nov 2025",
          "Trough": "52.5",
          "Trough day": "40",
          "Day 90": "66.8",
          "Today": "73.9"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "Released": "Jan 2026",
          "Trough": "100.0",
          "Trough day": "0",
          "Day 90": "131.6",
          "Today": "122.6"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Released": "Mar 2026",
          "Trough": "79.1",
          "Trough day": "90",
          "Day 90": "75.4",
          "Today": "67.9"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Released": "May 2026",
          "Trough": "46.9",
          "Trough day": "58",
          "Day 90": "48.2",
          "Today": "48.2 (day 60)"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Ten launches, indexed from day zero",
    "The grinder: supply wins for two months",
    "The chase set: there is no dip and waiting costs you",
    "Black Bolt and White Flare: the trough plus a catalyst"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Each set's index is moonstone's set-level singles price series (the average TCGplayer market across the set's tracked singles from our daily feed), rebased to 100 at the first data point on or after the set's release date, tracked through August 6, 2026. Surging Sparks (Nov 2024) is excluded because our series begins 80 days after its release, which would fabricate a launch baseline. Chaos Rising has only 60 days of history; its day 90 column reports day 60 and is excluded from trough-window statistics. Troughs are the series minimum within the first 90 days. Set-level indices average across singles and therefore understate individual chase-card moves in both directions. Correction, 2026-09-22, from an independent recomputation against production. Four rows print a Day 90 level below their own stated 90-day trough, which cannot happen, because the trough is the minimum of the window the Day 90 reading sits inside: Prismatic Evolutions (trough 99.3 at day 24, Day 90 printed 96.9), Journey Together (61.0 at day 87, printed 59.8), ME01 (52.4 at day 87, printed 51.7) and Perfect Order (79.1 at day 90, printed 75.4). Rebuilding the same series today at the same release anchors returns Day 90 levels of 99.7, 61.0 and 79.1 for the first, second and fourth; the troughs and trough days reproduce exactly in every row. ME01 cannot be rebased at all: our catalog holds no release date for it and its series opens on a coverage stub of $576 that jumps to $3,113 a week later, so treat that row as unverified. Two further qualifications this piece owed the reader. Prismatic Evolutions released January 17, 2025 and our set series begins January 27, so its 'release = 100' baseline is day 10, not release week, which is the same defect that got Surging Sparks excluded, at a tenth of the size; its launch-week mania is not in this index. And only Ascended Heroes never traded below its release price. Prismatic bottomed 0.7 percent under and Destined Rivals 1.3 percent under, so the count of sets that never dipped at all is one of ten, not three; the deck and the stat row said three and now say one."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}