{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/grading-roi-for-the-cards-you-own",
  "slug": "grading-roi-for-the-cards-you-own",
  "title": "Grading ROI, Computed Honestly: The Registry Already Ran Your Experiment",
  "summary": "Take the raw price, the real gem rate from 500-plus graded populations, verified 10 and 9 medians, and a $20 fee. On the 19 heavily-graded cards we can fully measure, expected value is positive on every one. That is not a free lunch. It is survivorship, and it is the whole lesson.",
  "section": "Investment research",
  "published": "2026-08-26",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Net expected value per submission, $20 fee, registry-average outcomes",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Raw",
        "Gem rate",
        "PSA 10 / PSA 9",
        "Net EV"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/swshp-SWSH066), SWSH Black Star Promos",
          "Raw": "$104",
          "Gem rate": "55.5% (pop 8,977)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$3,027 / $526",
          "Net EV": "+$1,762"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon VMAX](/card/swsh7-215), [Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Raw": "$2,329",
          "Gem rate": "69.5% (pop 30,777)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$4,300 / $2,113",
          "Net EV": "+$1,271"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Giratina V](/card/swsh11-186), [Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Raw": "$824",
          "Gem rate": "40.6% (pop 23,817)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$3,225 / $860",
          "Net EV": "+$948"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Rayquaza VMAX](/card/swsh7-218), Evolving Skies",
          "Raw": "$1,250",
          "Gem rate": "68.1% (pop 21,935)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$2,626 / $1,275",
          "Net EV": "+$905"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Blastoise & Piplup GX](/card/sm12-215), [Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Raw": "$494",
          "Gem rate": "32.6% (pop 4,857)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$3,050 / $508",
          "Net EV": "+$800"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/me02-125), [Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Raw": "$673",
          "Gem rate": "59.8% (pop 49,604)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$2,001 / $758",
          "Net EV": "+$796"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard VMAX](/card/swsh3.5-74), [Champion's Path](/set/champion's%20path)",
          "Raw": "$235",
          "Gem rate": "69.6% (pop 29,800)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$330 / $180",
          "Net EV": "+$31"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Hisuian Sneasler V](/card/swsh10-175), [Astral Radiance](/set/astral%20radiance)",
          "Raw": "$38",
          "Gem rate": "49.7% (pop 2,238)",
          "PSA 10 / PSA 9": "$103 / $30",
          "Net EV": "+$8"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "All nineteen are positive, and that should worry you",
    "Your copy is not a registry average"
  ],
  "method": [
    "All 19 cards holding: a recorded PSA population of 500-plus with grade splits (moonstone daily registry snapshots), current verified PSA 10 and PSA 9 sold medians with three-plus sales each, and a live TCGplayer base-printing market price from our daily sync, as of August 26, 2026. EV = gem_rate x PSA10_median + nine_rate x PSA9_median + remaining_rate x 85% of raw, minus raw cost and a $20 grading fee; the 85% factor prices sub-9 outcomes conservatively at a modest discount to raw. Net EV as shown; break-even gem rate solves the same equation for zero. All inputs are recorded market data; the EV arithmetic is ours and is disclosed in full. Correction, 2026-09-22, from an independent recomputation against production: the top row first published a raw price of $581 for the SWSH Black Star Promos Charizard, which no printing of that card has ever carried. Our recorded price tape has it at $101.85 on August 6 and $104.25 on August 30, 2026, and its all-time high across twenty months is $104.81, so the raw is now stated at $104 and the net EV rises from +$1,311 to +$1,762. Every other row's population, gem rate, PSA 10 median and PSA 9 median reproduce exactly against the August 26 snapshots. The Champion's Path Charizard VMAX carries the highest break-even gem rate in the table, not the thinnest margin of safety, which is the Astral Radiance Hisuian Sneasler V at 1.3x; the card's label was corrected to say so. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}