{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/grading-tax",
  "slug": "grading-tax",
  "title": "The Grading Tax: When a PSA 10 Is Worth It, and When Grading Destroys Value",
  "summary": "We joined our PSA sale medians with real gem rates and raw market prices for every card where all three exist. The result is an expected-value table for the most common decision in the hobby, and the math is rougher on PSA 9s than anyone wants to admit.",
  "section": "Analysis",
  "published": "2026-08-06",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "9 of 11",
      "measures": "modern chase cards whose PSA 9 median sits BELOW the raw price",
      "basis": "a 9 is a loss before fees"
    },
    {
      "value": "9-16%",
      "measures": "break-even gem rate for most modern submissions",
      "basis": "the bar is far lower than assumed"
    },
    {
      "value": "29.8%",
      "measures": "gem rate of the Prismatic Umbreon ex SIR",
      "basis": "and it still grades at +94% expected edge"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Expected value of a PSA submission (August 2026)",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Raw",
        "PSA 9",
        "PSA 10",
        "Gem rate",
        "Expected edge"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon ex SIR](/card/sv08.5-161) ([Prismatic](/set/prismatic%20evolutions))",
          "Raw": "$1,496",
          "PSA 9": "$1,535",
          "PSA 10": "$6,225",
          "Gem rate": "29.8%",
          "Expected edge": "+94%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Reshiram ex](/card/sv10.5w-173) ([White Flare](/set/white%20flare))",
          "Raw": "$509",
          "PSA 9": "$458",
          "PSA 10": "$1,322",
          "Gem rate": "58.8%",
          "Expected edge": "+85%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lugia V Alt Art](/card/swsh12-186) ([Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest))",
          "Raw": "$529",
          "PSA 9": "$539",
          "PSA 10": "$1,348",
          "Gem rate": "54.9%",
          "Expected edge": "+81%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Rayquaza VMAX Alt](/card/swsh7-218) ([Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies))",
          "Raw": "$1,254",
          "PSA 9": "$1,005",
          "PSA 10": "$2,808",
          "Gem rate": "68.3%",
          "Expected edge": "+76%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Victini](/card/sv10.5w-172) (White Flare)",
          "Raw": "$555",
          "PSA 9": "$471",
          "PSA 10": "$1,499",
          "Gem rate": "48.8%",
          "Expected edge": "+71%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Dragonite ex](/card/me02.5-290) ([Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes))",
          "Raw": "$727",
          "PSA 9": "$629",
          "PSA 10": "$1,540",
          "Gem rate": "63.1%",
          "Expected edge": "+62%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat](/card/svp-085)",
          "Raw": "$1,109",
          "PSA 9": "$971",
          "PSA 10": "$2,850",
          "Gem rate": "42.9%",
          "Expected edge": "+58%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu ex](/card/me02.5-276) (Ascended Heroes)",
          "Raw": "$1,160",
          "PSA 9": "$960",
          "PSA 10": "$2,375",
          "Gem rate": "62.7%",
          "Expected edge": "+57%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon VMAX Alt](/card/swsh7-215) (Evolving Skies)",
          "Raw": "$2,320",
          "PSA 9": "$2,049",
          "PSA 10": "$4,325",
          "Gem rate": "69.5%",
          "Expected edge": "+55%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Dragonite V Alt](/card/swsh7-192) (Evolving Skies)",
          "Raw": "$553",
          "PSA 9": "$500",
          "PSA 10": "$1,250",
          "Gem rate": "50.7%",
          "Expected edge": "+55%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard GX](/card/sma-SV49) ([Hidden Fates SV](/set/hidden%20fates%20shiny%20vault))",
          "Raw": "$760",
          "PSA 9": "$698",
          "PSA 10": "$1,475",
          "Gem rate": "49.0%",
          "Expected edge": "+39%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Expected value, not best case",
    "Modern chase cards: the full expected-value ledger",
    "The PSA 9 is the silent killer",
    "Old cards break the model in both directions"
  ],
  "method": [
    "PSA 9 and PSA 10 prices are moonstone's eBay sold-listing medians read from the August 2, 2026 graded snapshot, the latest before publication on August 6, with sample sizes stated per card (the modern table ranges from 91 to 522 sales per median; the 894-sale Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex median quoted in the prose sits outside the table). Raw prices are the canonical-printing TCGplayer market from our daily price feed. Gem rates are cumulative PSA 10s divided by total PSA population from our population snapshots. Expected value = gem rate x PSA 10 median + (1 - gem rate) x PSA 9 median - $25 in fees; treating all non-gems as 9s slightly flatters grading, so negative results are conservative. Cards with grade-inverted medians on thin samples (n < 10) were excluded, not smoothed. Vintage graded comps can mix First Edition and Unlimited printings, and where a set prints the same artwork twice they can mix holo and non-holo: the Team Rocket Dark Charizard row is keyed to the non-holo 21/82 while its $553 PSA 9 and $3,475 PSA 10 medians are holo money. That row's raw denominator is the least stable figure in this piece. Our tape carries $182.95 for it three weeks after publication and $91.64 today, after the September 6, 2026 printing-identity rebuild changed which printing is canonical, so the multiple quoted above is six times against the current denominator and about three against the earlier one. Vintage rows are therefore discussed with that caveat and excluded from the modern table."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}