{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/how-to-tell-a-pokemon-card-price-is-stale", "slug": "how-to-tell-a-pokemon-card-price-is-stale", "title": "How to Tell a Pokémon Card Price Is Stale", "summary": "Across 25,938 card-grade pairs, 78.5% of quoted prices that moved in four days moved with no new recorded sale behind them. Three checks tell you which.", "section": "Data forensics", "published": "2026-09-22", "readMinutes": 9, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "78.5%", "measures": "of quote moves had no new verified sale behind them", "basis": "11,794 of 15,016 moving pairs, September 18 to 22, 2026" }, { "value": "67.4%", "measures": "of sold medians took no new comp in seven days", "basis": "16,855 of 25,022 series" }, { "value": "34.5%", "measures": "of quotes never changed across our whole 23-day tape", "basis": "17,756 of 51,496 products" }, { "value": "36.2%", "measures": "of pairs had both sides completely still", "basis": "9,401 of 25,938" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Share of sold medians that recorded no new verified sale in seven days", "columns": [ "Comps behind the median", "Series", "No new sale in seven days", "Median new comps" ], "rows": [ { "Comps behind the median": "3 to 4", "Series": "6,351", "No new sale in seven days": "94.7%", "Median new comps": "0" }, { "Comps behind the median": "5 to 9", "Series": "7,226", "No new sale in seven days": "78.1%", "Median new comps": "0" }, { "Comps behind the median": "10 to 19", "Series": "4,728", "No new sale in seven days": "64.5%", "Median new comps": "0" }, { "Comps behind the median": "20 to 49", "Series": "3,732", "No new sale in seven days": "45.9%", "Median new comps": "1" }, { "Comps behind the median": "50 to 99", "Series": "1,417", "No new sale in seven days": "23.9%", "Median new comps": "1" }, { "Comps behind the median": "100 or more", "Series": "1,568", "No new sale in seven days": "5.8%", "Median new comps": "4" } ] }, { "title": "The same measurement, by grade and by price", "columns": [ "Cut", "Series", "No new verified sale in seven days" ], "rows": [ { "Cut": "PSA 10", "Series": "7,333", "No new verified sale in seven days": "60.3%" }, { "Cut": "PSA 9", "Series": "7,655", "No new verified sale in seven days": "63.7%" }, { "Cut": "CGC 10", "Series": "4,939", "No new verified sale in seven days": "67.9%" }, { "Cut": "CGC 9", "Series": "2,992", "No new verified sale in seven days": "80.4%" }, { "Cut": "CGC 9.5", "Series": "1,007", "No new verified sale in seven days": "86.9%" }, { "Cut": "BGS 9 and BGS 9.5", "Series": "1,096", "No new verified sale in seven days": "84.0%" }, { "Cut": "Sold median under $25", "Series": "5,532", "No new verified sale in seven days": "69.9%" }, { "Cut": "Sold median $25 to $100", "Series": "9,951", "No new verified sale in seven days": "65.1%" }, { "Cut": "Sold median $100 to $500", "Series": "6,715", "No new verified sale in seven days": "68.3%" }, { "Cut": "Sold median $500 to $2,000", "Series": "2,000", "No new verified sale in seven days": "68.2%" }, { "Cut": "Sold median $2,000 and up", "Series": "824", "No new verified sale in seven days": "67.5%" } ] }, { "title": "Quoted prices identical to the earlier reading, our own daily dump", "columns": [ "Gap", "Products with both readings", "Identical to the cent", "Share" ], "rows": [ { "Gap": "1 day (September 21 to 22, 2026)", "Products with both readings": "52,266", "Identical to the cent": "45,056", "Share": "86.2%" }, { "Gap": "4 days (September 18 to 22, 2026)", "Products with both readings": "52,086", "Identical to the cent": "37,981", "Share": "72.9%" }, { "Gap": "7 days (August 31 to September 7, 2026)", "Products with both readings": "51,756", "Identical to the cent": "26,853", "Share": "51.9%" }, { "Gap": "23 days (August 30 to September 22, 2026)", "Products with both readings": "51,496", "Identical to the cent": "17,756", "Share": "34.5%" } ] }, { "title": "Did the quote move, and did any new sale happen? 25,938 card-and-grade pairs", "columns": [ "", "New verified sale recorded", "No new verified sale", "Total" ], "rows": [ { "": "Quote moved", "New verified sale recorded": "3,222", "No new verified sale": "11,794", "Total": "15,016" }, { "": "Quote frozen", "New verified sale recorded": "1,521", "No new verified sale": "9,401", "Total": "10,922" }, { "": "Total", "New verified sale recorded": "4,743", "No new verified sale": "21,195", "Total": "25,938" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "Two thirds of sold medians took no new evidence in a week", "A third of quotes have not moved since our tape began", "A number that moved is not a number that learned", "Three questions that separate a price from a rumour", "What would overturn this", "What this study cannot show" ], "method": [ "Sources: `graded_snapshots` (card key, grade, UTC day, median, sample_size) and `price_history` (product, day, price). Sold-side window: days 20711 to 20718 (September 15 to September 22, 2026), the 25,022 series present on all eight. Quoted-side windows: day pairs 20717/20718, 20714/20718, 20696/20703, 20695/20702 and 20695/20718, restricted to products carrying a reading on both days; days 20704 to 20713 are excluded from every pairing because the export sync truncated on them and covered 35,700 to 50,400 of roughly 52,300 products, which is a coverage artifact, not a price stratum. Joint test: days 20714 to 20718, where both tapes are complete, 25,938 card-and-grade pairs across 10,653 cards joined on the catalog's marketplace product id. Both sides of the joint test use the SAME four days: the comp delta is measured from day 20714 to day 20718, not from the start of the eight-day sold panel, and the pairs are deduped on (product, grade), which collapses nothing here because no two catalog rows in this cohort share a product id and a grade. \"New verified sale\" means the sample_size on the last day exceeds the sample_size on the first; ties and the zero falls are counted as no new sale. The joint cohort keeps only graded series whose card key is a marketplace product id our catalog carries, which is 11,701 of the 12,449 keys on the tape; without that restriction the same test runs over 27,315 pairs and reads 78.9%, so the join narrows the population without moving the result. COMP-DEPTH BANDS IN THE SEVEN-DAY TABLE ARE CUT ON THE SAMPLE SIZE ON DAY 20718, the last day of that window, so the six bands partition all 25,022 series exactly once; cutting on the first day instead puts 6,849 series in the 3-to-4 row at 87.8% and leaves every band in the same order. \"Identical\" means equal to the cent. Day 20719 exists in the graded table and is excluded because it was still being written. Quoted prices are ASKS. Graded medians are SOLD medians. An absent row is not recorded, never zero. Not financial advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }