{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/illustrator-gem-rate",
  "slug": "illustrator-gem-rate",
  "title": "Does the Artist Change a Card's Chance of a PSA 10?",
  "summary": "Across 6,970 English cards with a stated PSA gem rate and 50 or more submissions, 50 illustrators have at least 25 cards that can be set against same-set, same-rarity peers. The whole artist effect, top of that table to bottom, is 9.1 percentage points. The era a card was printed in moves the same number by 50.6 points, and the raw gem-rate ranking a collector can see agrees with the controlled one on two of its top ten names.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-10-12",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "9.1 pt",
      "measures": "the whole artist effect, top of the table to bottom",
      "basis": "50 illustrators with 25 or more comparable cards"
    },
    {
      "value": "4.3 pt",
      "measures": "Ryo Ueda's gem-rate deficit against same-set, same-rarity peers",
      "basis": "156 comparable cards, t = -8.98"
    },
    {
      "value": "50.6 pt",
      "measures": "gem-rate spread between eras, on the same cards",
      "basis": "Mega Evolution 56.4% to Diamond and Pearl 5.8%, 6,970 cards"
    },
    {
      "value": "2 of 10",
      "measures": "names the raw top ten and the controlled top ten share",
      "basis": "the same 50 ranked illustrators"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Ranked on gem rate against same-set, same-rarity peers. 6,970 English cards, PSA registries of 50 or more, build of 2026-10-12",
      "columns": [
        "Illustrator",
        "Cards",
        "Comparable",
        "Raw gem rate",
        "Vs same set, same rarity",
        "t"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Illustrator": "PLANETA Tsuji",
          "Cards": "72",
          "Comparable": "62",
          "Raw gem rate": "55.0%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+4.3 pt",
          "t": "3.68"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Ryota Murayama",
          "Cards": "34",
          "Comparable": "26",
          "Raw gem rate": "37.3%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+4.2 pt",
          "t": "2.28"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "kawayoo",
          "Cards": "40",
          "Comparable": "30",
          "Raw gem rate": "32.0%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+4.1 pt",
          "t": "2.78"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "AKIRA EGAWA",
          "Cards": "36",
          "Comparable": "28",
          "Raw gem rate": "45.4%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+3.0 pt",
          "t": "1.84"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Keiji Kinebuchi",
          "Cards": "117",
          "Comparable": "116",
          "Raw gem rate": "25.8%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.7 pt",
          "t": "3.21"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Eske Yoshinob",
          "Cards": "118",
          "Comparable": "115",
          "Raw gem rate": "28.9%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.5 pt",
          "t": "3.04"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Ayaka Yoshida",
          "Cards": "65",
          "Comparable": "55",
          "Raw gem rate": "37.4%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.4 pt",
          "t": "3.19"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Miki Tanaka",
          "Cards": "54",
          "Comparable": "53",
          "Raw gem rate": "30.1%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.4 pt",
          "t": "2.01"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Shin Nagasawa",
          "Cards": "63",
          "Comparable": "52",
          "Raw gem rate": "34.2%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.3 pt",
          "t": "2.31"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "5ban Graphics",
          "Cards": "956",
          "Comparable": "686",
          "Raw gem rate": "40.8%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.2 pt",
          "t": "7.23"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "32 illustrators, ranks 11 to 42",
          "Cards": "2,931",
          "Comparable": "2,469",
          "Raw gem rate": "14.9% to 51.6%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "+2.0 to -2.6 pt",
          "t": "5 of 32 past 2.00"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Hikaru Koike",
          "Cards": "35",
          "Comparable": "35",
          "Raw gem rate": "14.2%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-2.6 pt",
          "t": "-2.44"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Akira Komayama",
          "Cards": "49",
          "Comparable": "45",
          "Raw gem rate": "35.1%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-2.6 pt",
          "t": "-2.37"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Ryuta Fuse",
          "Cards": "48",
          "Comparable": "43",
          "Raw gem rate": "42.7%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-3.3 pt",
          "t": "-2.57"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Naoki Saito",
          "Cards": "73",
          "Comparable": "65",
          "Raw gem rate": "35.2%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-3.5 pt",
          "t": "-3.68"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "kirisAki",
          "Cards": "59",
          "Comparable": "54",
          "Raw gem rate": "43.4%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-3.6 pt",
          "t": "-3.75"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Hitoshi Ariga",
          "Cards": "57",
          "Comparable": "47",
          "Raw gem rate": "38.8%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-4.0 pt",
          "t": "-3.82"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Ryo Ueda",
          "Cards": "186",
          "Comparable": "156",
          "Raw gem rate": "10.6%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-4.3 pt",
          "t": "-8.98"
        },
        {
          "Illustrator": "Hideki Ishikawa",
          "Cards": "56",
          "Comparable": "49",
          "Raw gem rate": "42.3%",
          "Vs same set, same rarity": "-4.7 pt",
          "t": "-4.83"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Gem rate by era, card-level mean",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "The 6,970 cards the ranking is built on, grouped by the era prefix of their set. Mega Evolution reaches 56.4%, Diamond and Pearl 5.8%. Scale is the full 0 to 100, same as the chart further down.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Mega Evolution",
          "value": 56.4,
          "basis": "271 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "Sword and Shield",
          "value": 50.7,
          "basis": "1,274 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "Sun and Moon",
          "value": 41.8,
          "basis": "800 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "Scarlet and Violet",
          "value": 35.3,
          "basis": "1,340 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "WotC",
          "value": 22.8,
          "basis": "1,409 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "Other sets",
          "value": 21,
          "basis": "181 cards, special sets and tie-ins"
        },
        {
          "label": "XY",
          "value": 19.1,
          "basis": "403 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "EX",
          "value": 14.3,
          "basis": "626 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "Black and White",
          "value": 9.1,
          "basis": "244 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "HeartGold SoulSilver",
          "value": 6.6,
          "basis": "132 cards"
        },
        {
          "label": "Diamond and Pearl",
          "value": 5.8,
          "basis": "290 cards"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Share of an illustrator's comparable cards that gemmed below their same-set, same-rarity peers",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "A byline with no effect sits near 50%, which is where all 50 ranked illustrators pooled land: 2,116 of 4,186 cards, 50.5%. Scale is the full 0 to 100, same as the era chart above.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Ryota Murayama",
          "value": 19.2,
          "basis": "5 of 26"
        },
        {
          "label": "PLANETA Tsuji",
          "value": 27.4,
          "basis": "17 of 62"
        },
        {
          "label": "5ban Graphics",
          "value": 40.8,
          "basis": "280 of 686"
        },
        {
          "label": "Ken Sugimori",
          "value": 48.8,
          "basis": "184 of 377"
        },
        {
          "label": "All 50 ranked illustrators",
          "value": 50.5,
          "basis": "2,116 of 4,186"
        },
        {
          "label": "Hitoshi Ariga",
          "value": 72.3,
          "basis": "34 of 47"
        },
        {
          "label": "Ryo Ueda",
          "value": 76.3,
          "basis": "119 of 156"
        },
        {
          "label": "Hideki Ishikawa",
          "value": 79.6,
          "basis": "39 of 49"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "The table a collector can see is mostly a calendar",
    "What Ken Sugimori's row is really measuring",
    "The row that nearly shipped",
    "The negative with the most evidence behind it",
    "Where the comparison gets soft"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Source: screener_rows_v2, the single published build, built_day 1791819051496 (2026-10-12). Gem rate and submission count originate in report_features from population_snapshots, keyed on the TCGplayer product id, each card's last reading in the window 2026-08-02 to 2026-10-12 that can support a gem claim, lifetime cumulative PSA 10s over submissions. graded_snapshots, which carries two keyspaces, is not read here. Funnel: 52,151 build rows, less 24,401 not English, less 7,618 with no illustrator in our catalog, less 660 with no era, less 3,449 with no stated gem rate (absent, or a zero against a registry of 100 or more, which is a missing provider block and not a zero), less 8,279 with fewer than 50 submissions, less 3 duplicate catalog rows pointing at one registry line (the a and b halves of three [Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis) cards, each pair one illustrator and one gem rate), leaving 7,741; less 771 cards in the ten Black Star Promo channels, leaving 6,970 cards and 338 illustrators. A card is comparable when its set-and-rarity cell holds five or more cards by other illustrators: 5,759 of the 6,970 are, in 340 of the 681 cells. An illustrator's figure is the mean, over their comparable cards, of that card's gem rate minus the mean of those peers; the illustrator is never in their own baseline. t is that mean over its standard error. The ranking shows the 50 illustrators with 25 or more comparable cards. Card-level gaps have a standard deviation of 7.9 points and a median absolute size of 4.3 points, so no single card means anything on its own. Era baselines are card-level means and are quoted on the population they are computed from: on the 7,741 before promo channels come out, Mega Evolution is 54.8%, Sword and Shield 49.4% and the other bucket 21.0%; on the 6,970 the ranking uses, 56.4%, 50.7% and 21.0%. That other bucket is special sets and tie-in products: of its 181 cards, [Generations](/set/generations) holds 51, the six McDonald's Collection sets hold 41 between them, and [Celebrations](/set/celebrations) holds 20 before its [Classic Collection](/set/celebrations%20classic%20collection) adds 18. Robustness: adding the secret slot to the cell, where 1,656 of the 6,970 carry a number past their set's printed total and 7 rows carry no number or total we can read, leaves 48 illustrators and the spread at 9.1 points, with Ryo Ueda 4.5 points below on 150 comparable cards; dropping the 243 comparable cards (4.2%) that sit in a cell where one illustrator holds the whole top of the number range, with the peer baselines held fixed, leaves 46 illustrators and 8.9 points, and rebuilding those baselines on the survivors instead leaves the same 46 illustrators and 9.0 points; requiring a peer registry within a factor of two leaves 39 illustrators and 7.0 points. Everything is English only, so none of the 1,211 ids that carry both a Japanese and an English set name can double count, and no set-level total is published. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}