{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/introducing-the-moonstone-indices", "slug": "introducing-the-moonstone-indices", "title": "Introducing the Moonstone Indices: Three Lists of 500 Cards, Three Weeks of Readings", "summary": "Moonstone Vintage is up 4.75% since September 7. Moonstone Modern is down 4.64% over the identical 14 readings. Here is what each list holds, why the membership is frozen, and why three weeks is not a history.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-09-29", "readMinutes": 11, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "104.75", "measures": "Moonstone Vintage on September 29", "basis": "base 100 on September 7, and 383 of its 500 cards finished higher" }, { "value": "95.36", "measures": "Moonstone Modern on the same day", "basis": "same base day, and 399 of its 500 cards finished lower" }, { "value": "101.02", "measures": "The Moonstone 500 on the same day", "basis": "267 up and 233 down, which is what holding both ends looks like" }, { "value": "14", "measures": "readings behind every level", "basis": "the days between September 7 and September 29 the price file carried at least 90% of a median day, 46,659 rows against 51,843" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "The three Moonstone indices, rule by rule", "columns": [ "Rule", "Moonstone 500", "Moonstone Vintage", "Moonstone Modern" ], "rows": [ { "Rule": "What it holds", "Moonstone 500": "The 500 highest priced single cards that clear every rule below, on the day the list was drawn, any set, English or Japanese", "Moonstone Vintage": "The 500 highest priced cards that clear every rule below, drawn from the Wizards of the Coast sets, the EX series, Diamond and Pearl, and HeartGold SoulSilver", "Moonstone Modern": "The 500 highest priced cards that clear every rule below, drawn from Sword and Shield, Scarlet and Violet, and Mega Evolution" }, { "Rule": "Day the list was drawn", "Moonstone 500": "2026-09-07", "Moonstone Vintage": "2026-09-07", "Moonstone Modern": "2026-09-07" }, { "Rule": "Level on that day", "Moonstone 500": "100", "Moonstone Vintage": "100", "Moonstone Modern": "100" }, { "Rule": "Cards counted", "Moonstone 500": "500", "Moonstone Vintage": "500", "Moonstone Modern": "500" }, { "Rule": "Price floor on the base day", "Moonstone 500": "$25.00", "Moonstone Vintage": "$5.00", "Moonstone Modern": "$5.00" }, { "Rule": "Price of the last card in", "Moonstone 500": "$92.76", "Moonstone Vintage": "$9.03", "Moonstone Modern": "$23.66" }, { "Rule": "Cards that cleared every rule", "Moonstone 500": "1,222", "Moonstone Vintage": "642", "Moonstone Modern": "1,618" }, { "Rule": "Median member on the base day", "Moonstone 500": "$170.91", "Moonstone Vintage": "$33.50", "Moonstone Modern": "$49.96" }, { "Rule": "Range on the base day", "Moonstone 500": "$92.76 to $4,271.62", "Moonstone Vintage": "$9.03 to $1,275.25", "Moonstone Modern": "$23.66 to $2,298.34" }, { "Rule": "Weighting", "Moonstone 500": "Equal. Every card is one five-hundredth of the level", "Moonstone Vintage": "Equal", "Moonstone Modern": "Equal" }, { "Rule": "A card must have printed", "Moonstone 500": "3 or more different prices across the 14 readings", "Moonstone Vintage": "3 or more", "Moonstone Modern": "3 or more" }, { "Rule": "If a card stops being priced", "Moonstone 500": "Carried at its last price for 3 readings. Past that it leaves, and the cards still in are re-based on that same day so the level carries straight through", "Moonstone Vintage": "Same", "Moonstone Modern": "Same" }, { "Rule": "Membership redrawn", "Moonstone 500": "Every 90 days. The first redraw is 2026-12-06", "Moonstone Vintage": "Every 90 days", "Moonstone Modern": "Every 90 days" }, { "Rule": "Refuses to publish below", "Moonstone 500": "200 cards", "Moonstone Vintage": "200 cards", "Moonstone Modern": "200 cards" }, { "Rule": "Change since the base day", "Moonstone 500": "+1.02%", "Moonstone Vintage": "+4.75%", "Moonstone Modern": "-4.64%" }, { "Rule": "Deepest fall from a high in these 14 readings", "Moonstone 500": "-0.20%", "Moonstone Vintage": "0.00%", "Moonstone Modern": "-4.64%" }, { "Rule": "Volatility, in percentage points", "Moonstone 500": "0.07 over 10 day pairs", "Moonstone Vintage": "0.09 over 10 day pairs", "Moonstone Modern": "0.11 over 10 day pairs" }, { "Rule": "Same rules with the movement screen off", "Moonstone 500": "101.41 over 3,225 cards", "Moonstone Vintage": "103.12 over 2,476 cards", "Moonstone Modern": "95.89 over 1,630 cards" } ] }, { "title": "Moonstone 500: the six dearest members on the base day", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Sep 7", "Sep 29", "Change", "Volatility" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Latias & Latios GX](/card/sm9-170)", "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Sep 7": "$4,271.62", "Sep 29": "$3,913.85", "Change": "-8.38%", "Volatility": "5.44" }, { "Card": "[Umbreon VMAX](/card/swsh7-215)", "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)", "Sep 7": "$2,298.34", "Sep 29": "$2,214.79", "Change": "-3.64%", "Volatility": "2.06" }, { "Card": "[Gengar & Mimikyu GX](/card/sm9-165)", "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Sep 7": "$1,820.53", "Sep 29": "$2,020.10", "Change": "+10.96%", "Volatility": "1.60" }, { "Card": "[Umbreon ex](/card/sv08.5-161)", "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)", "Sep 7": "$1,442.14", "Sep 29": "$1,384.05", "Change": "-4.03%", "Volatility": "0.79" }, { "Card": "[Lucky Stadium](/card/basep-41)", "Set": "Wizards Black Star Promos", "Sep 7": "$1,275.25", "Sep 29": "$1,700.00", "Change": "+33.31%", "Volatility": "4.82" }, { "Card": "[Rayquaza VMAX](/card/swsh7-218)", "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)", "Sep 7": "$1,255.34", "Sep 29": "$1,255.44", "Change": "+0.01%", "Volatility": "0.00" } ] }, { "title": "Moonstone Vintage: the five largest rises and the five largest falls", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Sep 7", "Sep 29", "Change", "Volatility" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Marshtomp](/card/np-11)", "Set": "Nintendo Black Star Promos", "Sep 7": "$85.14", "Sep 29": "$217.94", "Change": "+155.98%", "Volatility": "0.00" }, { "Card": "[Arceus](/card/dpp-DP53)", "Set": "DP Black Star Promos", "Sep 7": "$59.26", "Sep 29": "$142.50", "Change": "+140.47%", "Volatility": "8.60" }, { "Card": "[Scizor ex](/card/ex10-108)", "Set": "Unseen Forces", "Sep 7": "$119.85", "Sep 29": "$186.95", "Change": "+55.99%", "Volatility": "0.00" }, { "Card": "[Arceus LV.X](/card/pl4-95)", "Set": "[Arceus](/set/arceus)", "Sep 7": "$116.98", "Sep 29": "$177.50", "Change": "+51.74%", "Volatility": "7.63" }, { "Card": "[Jumpluff](/card/ecard2-H13)", "Set": "[Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis)", "Sep 7": "$89.65", "Sep 29": "$129.99", "Change": "+45.00%", "Volatility": "0.00" }, { "Card": "[Kingdra](/card/ecard2-148)", "Set": "[Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis)", "Sep 7": "$599.99", "Sep 29": "$438.00", "Change": "-27.00%", "Volatility": "7.52" }, { "Card": "[Minun](/card/hgssp-HGSS17)", "Set": "HGSS Black Star Promos", "Sep 7": "$32.79", "Sep 29": "$26.42", "Change": "-19.43%", "Volatility": "8.70" }, { "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/base1-58)", "Set": "[Base Set](/set/base%20set)", "Sep 7": "$16.26", "Sep 29": "$13.36", "Change": "-17.84%", "Volatility": "2.87" }, { "Card": "[Celebi ex](/card/pop2-17)", "Set": "[POP Series 2](/set/pop%20series%202)", "Sep 7": "$198.99", "Sep 29": "$166.50", "Change": "-16.33%", "Volatility": "5.93" }, { "Card": "[Entei ex](/card/ex4-91)", "Set": "Team Magma vs Team Aqua", "Sep 7": "$277.24", "Sep 29": "$233.33", "Change": "-15.84%", "Volatility": "3.10" } ] }, { "title": "Moonstone Modern: the five largest rises and the five largest falls", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Sep 7", "Sep 29", "Change", "Volatility" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Celebi V](/card/swsh8-245)", "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)", "Sep 7": "$76.11", "Sep 29": "$89.67", "Change": "+17.82%", "Volatility": "1.47" }, { "Card": "[Dachsbun ex](/card/sv07-169)", "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)", "Sep 7": "$66.37", "Sep 29": "$77.19", "Change": "+16.30%", "Volatility": "0.95" }, { "Card": "[Hydrapple ex](/card/sv07-167)", "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)", "Sep 7": "$36.45", "Sep 29": "$39.53", "Change": "+8.45%", "Volatility": "0.61" }, { "Card": "[Iron Valiant ex](/card/sv08.5-157)", "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)", "Sep 7": "$48.56", "Sep 29": "$52.14", "Change": "+7.37%", "Volatility": "0.32" }, { "Card": "[Zacian V](/card/swsh12.5gg-GG48)", "Set": "[Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery](/set/crown%20zenith%20galarian%20gallery)", "Sep 7": "$29.49", "Sep 29": "$31.66", "Change": "+7.36%", "Volatility": "0.89" }, { "Card": "[Charmander](/card/mep-038)", "Set": "MEP Black Star Promos", "Sep 7": "$39.56", "Sep 29": "$26.72", "Change": "-32.46%", "Volatility": "1.69" }, { "Card": "[Mega Gengar ex](/card/me02.5-269)", "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)", "Sep 7": "$56.21", "Sep 29": "$38.44", "Change": "-31.61%", "Volatility": "2.34" }, { "Card": "[Bulbasaur](/card/mep-037)", "Set": "MEP Black Star Promos", "Sep 7": "$28.90", "Sep 29": "$19.78", "Change": "-31.56%", "Volatility": "5.12" }, { "Card": "[Mega Eelektross ex](/card/me02.5-278)", "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)", "Sep 7": "$39.61", "Sep 29": "$28.48", "Change": "-28.10%", "Volatility": "3.44" }, { "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/me02-109)", "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)", "Sep 7": "$27.53", "Sep 29": "$20.55", "Change": "-25.35%", "Volatility": "2.39" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Share of each list whose price changed on September 29, 2026", "unit": "%", "note": "Against the previous published reading, September 28. This is the liquidity difference between the eras, stated rather than implied: a vintage line that looks calm is mostly cards that did not trade.", "points": [ { "label": "Moonstone Modern", "value": 71.2, "basis": "356 of 500 members printed a different price" }, { "label": "Moonstone 500", "value": 25.6, "basis": "128 of 500" }, { "label": "Moonstone Vintage", "value": 17.2, "basis": "86 of 500" } ] }, { "title": "What the two era lists are made of", "unit": null, "note": "Members by era, as at the base day. The two lists share no cards. XY, Black and White, Sun and Moon, the Japanese market and anything our feature pass could not place belong to neither era list, on purpose, and sit only in the Moonstone 500.", "points": [ { "label": "Scarlet and Violet (modern)", "value": 260, "basis": null }, { "label": "Wizards of the Coast (vintage)", "value": 209, "basis": null }, { "label": "Sword and Shield (modern)", "value": 176, "basis": null }, { "label": "EX series (vintage)", "value": 121, "basis": null }, { "label": "Diamond and Pearl (vintage)", "value": 117, "basis": null }, { "label": "Mega Evolution (modern)", "value": 64, "basis": null }, { "label": "HeartGold SoulSilver (vintage)", "value": 53, "basis": null } ] } ], "sections": [ "What each list holds, written down", "Why the membership is frozen", "Inside the lists", "What these indices cannot tell you" ], "method": [ "As of price_history days 20703 to 20725, which is 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-29. Prices are TCGplayer market prices for the standard printing, derived from recent sales rather than from listings; price_min is read only to corroborate the direction and size of a large move and no figure here is taken from it. No graded or population data is used anywhere in this article. THE CALENDAR: price_history holds 31 days. A day is used only when it carries at least 90% of the median day's row count, which is 46,659 rows against a median of 51,843, and nine days inside the span fail that bar and are excluded by name. The bar is a bar and not a proof of completeness: two of the 14 readings admitted, 2026-09-08 at 50,400 rows and 2026-09-10 at 49,500, are missing 1,497 and 2,478 of the products priced on 2026-09-07 and carry the same round-number truncation signature as the days the bar rejects, and most of the 31 refusals for not being priced on every reading come from those two days. The nine refused days are: 2026-09-09 (45,900 rows), 09-11 (42,600), 09-12 (36,600), 09-13 (43,500), 09-14 (44,400), 09-15 (36,900), 09-16 (35,700), 09-17 (37,500) and 09-24 (44,106). Eight complete days before 2026-09-07 are held back as well, because price recorded the dearest printing of a card until the morning of 2026-09-07 and the standard printing afterwards, so a window crossing that day compares two different measurements of the same card. That boundary is provable from the two recorded columns: summed over a whole day, price and price_min are identical to the cent on every one of the eight days from 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-06 and differ on every day from 2026-09-07 onward, $901,389.72 against $931,553.98 on the first of them. That leaves 14 readings. SELECTION: the candidate pool is 15,622 distinct TCGplayer product identifiers. One product identifier is one member; 72 products in the pool are claimed by two catalog rows each, resolved to the row whose set name matches the price file's own spelling and otherwise to the lower card id, and 11 such products sit in the Moonstone 500, 2 in modern and none in vintage. Screens run in this order: catalog row required, era, set release date, base-day price floor, priced on all 14 readings, three or more distinct prices, corroborated large moves, then rank on the 2026-09-07 price and take the top 500. A card is counted as priced on a reading once per DAY rather than once per row, which is an off-by-one this engine had at first: a base-day row was read twice, so a card priced on 13 of 14 readings cleared a gate that says all 14. Exclusion counts, Moonstone 500: 536 no catalog row, 3 set released inside the window, 31 not priced on every reading, 1,989 under three distinct prices, 11,827 below the $25 floor, 14 uncorroborated large move, 722 eligible but outside the top 500; 1,172 candidates reaching the release screen belong to sets with no recorded release date and are counted and admitted rather than silently passed, and because that screen runs before the price and movement screens most of those candidates are then excluded for another reason, so the counts do not partition. Moonstone Vintage: 9,317 an era neither era list holds, 160 no feature row and therefore no known era, 3,127 below the $5 floor, 1,804 under three distinct prices, 6 not priced on every reading, 30 uncorroborated, 142 outside the top 500. Moonstone Modern: 6,919 an era neither list holds, 160 no feature row, 6,377 below the $5 floor, 12 under three distinct prices, 1,118 outside the top 500. Eras are report_features.era_bucket, the only era column this database has: vintage is WOTC, EX, DP and HGSS; modern is SWSH, SV and ME; XY, BW, SM, JA and OTHER are in neither list, and a card with no feature row has no known era and is excluded from both rather than defaulted into one. Those two exclusions were one number until this run: every candidate whose era was recorded but unwanted was counted as having no era at all, which mislabelled 1,310 of 1,470. THE LEVEL: equal weighted, base 100 on 2026-09-07, and every reading is the mean of each member's price divided by its own 2026-09-07 price, never a re-sum of the day. A member with no price is carried at its last price for three readings and then leaves for the rest of the period, at which point the remaining members are re-based on the day the last reading was PUBLISHED, so the closing level and the new base prices come from the same day; no member lapsed in any of the three lists over these 14 readings. A missing price is never counted as zero. A frozen member the level cannot read on the day its run of readings opens is named and counted rather than dropped, and the card count published beside a level is the count the level was computed over. A list publishes a reading only when at least half its live members carry a real price rather than a carried forward one, and refuses to publish at all below 200 members. Volatility is the standard deviation of day to day percent changes of the level, counted only across the 10 pairs of readings that sit on consecutive calendar days, in percentage points, and is not annualised. The deepest-fall figure is measured across these 14 readings only and is not a lifetime figure. Breadth counts members finishing above, below or level against their own base price. The moved share on a reading is the share of live members whose price differs from the previous PUBLISHED reading, which on this calendar can be more than a day earlier. 854 products carry a price on 2026-09-29 and none on 2026-09-07, so no list could hold them. All figures were produced by apps/web/src/server/indices.ts run against production without writing to it, and by four scratch scripts under apps/web/scripts which have been deleted. Set links are only given where the set resolves to a page that renders its own card list; promo sets and several EX era sets have no such page and are named in prose without a link. Nothing here is investment advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }