{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/is-grading-pokemon-cards-worth-it",
  "slug": "is-grading-pokemon-cards-worth-it",
  "title": "Is Grading Pokémon Cards Worth It? 2,633 Answers",
  "summary": "Netting a $20 fee against each card's own recorded gem rate, 90.7% of 2,633 cards clear it and the median clears by $31.43. At $50 all-in, only half do.",
  "section": "Grading economics",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 11,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "90.7%",
      "measures": "of 2,633 cards carry a positive expected value",
      "basis": "after a $20 fee, at each card's own recorded gem rate"
    },
    {
      "value": "$31.43",
      "measures": "median net expected value per submission",
      "basis": "September 22, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "23.81%",
      "measures": "median break-even gem rate",
      "basis": "against a median recorded gem rate of 50.7%"
    },
    {
      "value": "5.89%",
      "measures": "of priced products can be asked this at all",
      "basis": "2,633 of 44,711. The rest lack a registry, a comp pool, or both"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Net expected value per submission, distribution across 2,633 cards",
      "columns": [
        "Percentile",
        "Net expected value after the $20 fee"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Percentile": "5th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "-$4.08"
        },
        {
          "Percentile": "10th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "$0.97"
        },
        {
          "Percentile": "25th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "$10.97"
        },
        {
          "Percentile": "50th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "$31.43"
        },
        {
          "Percentile": "75th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "$83.76"
        },
        {
          "Percentile": "90th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "$245.50"
        },
        {
          "Percentile": "95th",
          "Net expected value after the $20 fee": "$505.09"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "What a card needs versus what its registry delivers",
      "columns": [
        "Raw ask",
        "Cards",
        "Median break-even gem rate",
        "Median recorded gem rate",
        "Share clearing their own break-even"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Raw ask": "Under $5",
          "Cards": "447",
          "Median break-even gem rate": "46.08%",
          "Median recorded gem rate": "58.86%",
          "Share clearing their own break-even": "68.46%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$5 to $20",
          "Cards": "804",
          "Median break-even gem rate": "28.71%",
          "Median recorded gem rate": "49.95%",
          "Share clearing their own break-even": "86.94%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$20 to $50",
          "Cards": "573",
          "Median break-even gem rate": "20.60%",
          "Median recorded gem rate": "53.71%",
          "Share clearing their own break-even": "90.23%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$50 to $200",
          "Cards": "572",
          "Median break-even gem rate": "11.48%",
          "Median recorded gem rate": "46.81%",
          "Share clearing their own break-even": "96.15%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$200 and up",
          "Cards": "237",
          "Median break-even gem rate": "6.49%",
          "Median recorded gem rate": "43.09%",
          "Share clearing their own break-even": "96.62%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Expected value by raw ask band",
      "columns": [
        "Raw ask",
        "Cards",
        "Median raw ask",
        "Median gem rate",
        "Median net EV",
        "Share positive"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Raw ask": "Under $1",
          "Cards": "8",
          "Median raw ask": "$0.87",
          "Median gem rate": "58.06%",
          "Median net EV": "-$1.93",
          "Share positive": "37.50%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$1 to $5",
          "Cards": "439",
          "Median raw ask": "$3.05",
          "Median gem rate": "58.90%",
          "Median net EV": "$7.85",
          "Share positive": "80.64%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$5 to $20",
          "Cards": "804",
          "Median raw ask": "$10.93",
          "Median gem rate": "49.95%",
          "Median net EV": "$20.16",
          "Share positive": "90.80%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$20 to $50",
          "Cards": "573",
          "Median raw ask": "$30.14",
          "Median gem rate": "53.71%",
          "Median net EV": "$39.59",
          "Share positive": "90.92%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$50 to $200",
          "Cards": "572",
          "Median raw ask": "$87.94",
          "Median gem rate": "46.81%",
          "Median net EV": "$96.94",
          "Share positive": "95.98%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$200 to $1,000",
          "Cards": "216",
          "Median raw ask": "$302.56",
          "Median gem rate": "44.30%",
          "Median net EV": "$296.22",
          "Share positive": "97.22%"
        },
        {
          "Raw ask": "$1,000 and up",
          "Cards": "21",
          "Median raw ask": "$1,387.99",
          "Median gem rate": "18.26%",
          "Median net EV": "$1,200.38",
          "Share positive": "100.00%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The same 2,633 cards at six all-in costs",
      "columns": [
        "All-in cost per card",
        "Share with positive EV",
        "Median net EV"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "All-in cost per card": "$20",
          "Share with positive EV": "90.70%",
          "Median net EV": "$31.43"
        },
        {
          "All-in cost per card": "$25",
          "Share with positive EV": "84.69%",
          "Median net EV": "$26.43"
        },
        {
          "All-in cost per card": "$30",
          "Share with positive EV": "76.41%",
          "Median net EV": "$21.43"
        },
        {
          "All-in cost per card": "$50",
          "Share with positive EV": "51.35%",
          "Median net EV": "$1.43"
        },
        {
          "All-in cost per card": "$75",
          "Share with positive EV": "34.64%",
          "Median net EV": "-$23.57"
        },
        {
          "All-in cost per card": "$100",
          "Share with positive EV": "26.02%",
          "Median net EV": "-$48.57"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Four looser universes, same arithmetic",
      "columns": [
        "Registry floor",
        "Comp floor",
        "Cards",
        "Share positive",
        "Median net EV"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Registry floor": "500 slabs",
          "Comp floor": "10 comps",
          "Cards": "2,633",
          "Share positive": "90.70%",
          "Median net EV": "$31.43"
        },
        {
          "Registry floor": "100 slabs",
          "Comp floor": "10 comps",
          "Cards": "3,204",
          "Share positive": "89.58%",
          "Median net EV": "$30.38"
        },
        {
          "Registry floor": "Any",
          "Comp floor": "10 comps",
          "Cards": "3,290",
          "Share positive": "89.60%",
          "Median net EV": "$31.06"
        },
        {
          "Registry floor": "500 slabs",
          "Comp floor": "2 comps",
          "Cards": "3,224",
          "Share positive": "90.79%",
          "Median net EV": "$35.69"
        },
        {
          "Registry floor": "Any",
          "Comp floor": "2 comps",
          "Cards": "5,152",
          "Share positive": "89.09%",
          "Median net EV": "$35.85"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The ten best submissions we can price, by net expected value",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Raw ask",
        "PSA 10 sold (comps)",
        "Gem rate",
        "Net EV"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Pretend Team Skull Pikachu](/card/jat-598090)",
          "Set": "SM-P: Sun & Moon Promos",
          "Raw ask": "$3,499.99",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$12,676.74 (17)",
          "Gem rate": "52.20%",
          "Net EV": "+$4,519.15"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Ho-oh](/card/ecard3-149)",
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "Raw ask": "$800.00",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$16,187.50 (20)",
          "Gem rate": "7.87%",
          "Net EV": "+$3,254.95"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Celebi](/card/ecard3-145)",
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "Raw ask": "$750.00",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$7,950.50 (33)",
          "Gem rate": "17.92%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,775.61"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Gengar & Mimikyu GX](/card/sm9-165)",
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Raw ask": "$1,940.59",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$7,900.00 (63)",
          "Gem rate": "45.34%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,767.04"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Suicune ☆](/card/ex10-115)",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Raw ask": "$1,100.00",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$18,450.50 (15)",
          "Gem rate": "6.84%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,681.69"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Politoed](/card/ecard3-H23)",
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "Raw ask": "$450.00",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$7,735.00 (13)",
          "Gem rate": "23.40%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,586.93"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Raikou ☆](/card/ex10-114)",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Raw ask": "$1,600.00",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$20,675.50 (46)",
          "Gem rate": "9.59%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,493.25"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon ex](/card/jat-611904)",
          "Set": "Golden Sky, Silvery Ocean",
          "Raw ask": "$299.99",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$8,100.00 (18)",
          "Gem rate": "20.55%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,369.65"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Kabutops](/card/ecard3-150)",
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "Raw ask": "$1,000.00",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$12,799.57 (20)",
          "Gem rate": "15.27%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,361.64"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Gardevoir & Sylveon GX](/card/sm10-205)",
          "Set": "[Unbroken Bonds](/set/unbroken%20bonds)",
          "Raw ask": "$640.88",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$5,025.00 (52)",
          "Gem rate": "44.30%",
          "Net EV": "+$2,100.15"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The submissions that lose money",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Raw ask",
        "PSA 10 sold (comps)",
        "Gem rate",
        "Net EV"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Darkrai ex](/card/jat-695000)",
          "Set": "M5: Abyss Eye",
          "Raw ask": "$445.56",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$396.00 (46)",
          "Gem rate": "68.60%",
          "Net EV": "-$125.33"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[ナンジャモ](/card/ja-SV2D-096)",
          "Set": "Clay Burst",
          "Raw ask": "$302.41",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$290.34 (30)",
          "Gem rate": "57.75%",
          "Net EV": "-$81.29"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[サーナイトex](/card/ja-SV1S-101)",
          "Set": "Scarlet ex",
          "Raw ask": "$197.25",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$169.50 (61)",
          "Gem rate": "88.09%",
          "Net EV": "-$47.97"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[ゼクロムex](/card/ja-SV11B-169)",
          "Set": "Black Bolt",
          "Raw ask": "$182.17",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$159.58 (296)",
          "Gem rate": "90.64%",
          "Net EV": "-$45.48"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Fukuoka's Pikachu](/card/jat-658431)",
          "Set": "SV-P Promotional Cards",
          "Raw ask": "$163.21",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$162.50 (240)",
          "Gem rate": "82.90%",
          "Net EV": "-$33.27"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/basep-4)",
          "Set": "Wizards Black Star Promos",
          "Raw ask": "$41.15",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$46.00 (69)",
          "Gem rate": "10.32%",
          "Net EV": "-$30.47"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Fletchinder](/card/sv02-199)",
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "Raw ask": "$21.01",
          "PSA 10 sold (comps)": "$22.00 (26)",
          "Gem rate": "20.31%",
          "Net EV": "-$22.47"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The arithmetic, stated so it can be argued with",
    "The break-even gem rate, band by band",
    "The fee is the whole argument",
    "Make one or buy one",
    "What this study cannot show",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: rows of `cards` with a TCGplayer product id carrying all three of a latest `price_history` ask above zero (day 20718, September 22, 2026), a latest `graded_snapshots` PSA 10 sold median on ten or more verified comps, and a `population_snapshots` reading that survives three house rules. The registry rules are the ones our card reports use and are not optional: `sharedRegistryKeys` drops a key that two products both claim, `publishableRegistry` cuts a series at any reading that contradicts population physics so only the current registry line is read, and `gemRateIsTrustworthy` refuses a reading whose ten count is absent rather than scoring it as a 0% gem rate. A registry floor of 500 slabs is applied because a gem rate computed on four submissions is arithmetic rather than evidence; the article publishes the result without that floor as well. Cards whose PSA 10 median falls outside 0.85x to 40x the ask are dropped as mismatched comp pools. Rows are collapsed to one per product id. That leaves 2,633. Expected value is gemRate x PSA10median + psa9Share x PSA9median + remainder x 0.85 x ask, minus the ask, minus $20; the PSA 9 leg runs only where both a PSA 9 count and a PSA 9 median on ten or more comps exist, which is 1,949 of the 2,633. Break-even gem rate is (0.15 x ask + 20) / (PSA10median - 0.85 x ask), and its median is taken over the 2,554 cards where that lands between 0% and 100%; the 79 cards whose break-even exceeds 100% are counted in the text but cannot be averaged into a rate, and including them at their computed value would move the median to 24.60%. In the looser universes the PSA 9 comp floor tracks the PSA 10 comp floor rather than staying at ten, so the two-comp rows run the three-outcome model wherever a two-comp PSA 9 median exists. Medians are upper-middle on even samples. Raw figures are asks; graded figures are sold medians. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}