{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/is-the-chase-card-a-secret-rare",
  "slug": "is-the-chase-card-a-secret-rare",
  "title": "The Chase Card Is a Secret Rare 61% of the Time",
  "summary": "In all 95 English sets we can test, cards numbered past the set total out-ask the rest. But the single dearest card in the set is one of them only 58 times.",
  "section": "Catalog structure",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "95 of 95",
      "measures": "sets where the median card past the total out-asks the median card inside it",
      "basis": "English sets with 40 or more priced cards and at least one such card"
    },
    {
      "value": "58 of 95",
      "measures": "sets whose single dearest priced card is numbered past the total",
      "basis": "61.05%. The other 37 have their grail inside the checklist"
    },
    {
      "value": "$10.76 vs $0.52",
      "measures": "pooled median ask, past the total against inside it",
      "basis": "1,940 cards against 17,527, September 22, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "9.97%",
      "measures": "share of priced English cards numbered past their set total",
      "basis": "1,940 of 19,467, and they out-ask the rest 20.69 times on the pooled median"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The 18 largest of the 95 qualifying English sets by priced cards, with the tier gap and the set's dearest card (raw asks, September 22, 2026)",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Priced cards",
        "Past the total",
        "Median ask past",
        "Median ask inside",
        "Factor",
        "Dearest priced card",
        "Is it past the total?"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "Priced cards": "295",
          "Past the total": "78",
          "Median ask past": "$6.73",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.17",
          "Factor": "39.59x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Pikachu ex](/card/me02.5-276) 276/217",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Priced cards": "284",
          "Past the total": "20",
          "Median ask past": "$7.31",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.17",
          "Factor": "43.00x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Gengar VMAX](/card/swsh8-271) 271/264",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "Priced cards": "279",
          "Past the total": "86",
          "Median ask past": "$11.37",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.14",
          "Factor": "81.21x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Magikarp](/card/sv02-203) 203/193",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Priced cards": "271",
          "Past the total": "35",
          "Median ask past": "$21.42",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.35",
          "Factor": "61.20x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Arceus & Dialga & Palkia GX](/card/sm12-221) 221/236",
          "Is it past the total?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paradox Rift](/set/paradox%20rift)",
          "Priced cards": "266",
          "Past the total": "84",
          "Median ask past": "$8.34",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.15",
          "Factor": "55.60x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Groudon](/card/sv04-199) 199/182",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Scarlet & Violet](/set/scarlet%20%26%20violet)",
          "Priced cards": "258",
          "Past the total": "60",
          "Median ask past": "$6.25",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.14",
          "Factor": "44.64x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Gardevoir ex](/card/sv01-245) 245/198",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Unified Minds](/set/unified%20minds)",
          "Priced cards": "258",
          "Past the total": "22",
          "Median ask past": "$22.62",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.34",
          "Factor": "66.53x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Mewtwo & Mew GX](/card/sm11-242) 242/236",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)",
          "Priced cards": "252",
          "Past the total": "61",
          "Median ask past": "$5.78",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.13",
          "Factor": "44.46x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Pikachu ex](/card/sv08-238) 238/191",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates)",
          "Priced cards": "245",
          "Past the total": "154",
          "Median ask past": "$4.57",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.11",
          "Factor": "41.55x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Mew ex](/card/sv04.5-232) 232/91",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Priced cards": "244",
          "Past the total": "62",
          "Median ask past": "$6.06",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.17",
          "Factor": "35.65x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex](/card/sv10-231) 231/182",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Priced cards": "237",
          "Past the total": "34",
          "Median ask past": "$9.89",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.22",
          "Factor": "44.95x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Umbreon VMAX](/card/swsh7-215) 215/203",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)",
          "Priced cards": "236",
          "Past the total": "22",
          "Median ask past": "$26.34",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.64",
          "Factor": "41.16x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Mimikyu GX](/card/sm8-226) 226/214",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Unbroken Bonds](/set/unbroken%20bonds)",
          "Priced cards": "234",
          "Past the total": "20",
          "Median ask past": "$38.28",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.42",
          "Factor": "91.14x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Gardevoir & Sylveon GX](/card/sm10-205) 205/214",
          "Is it past the total?": "No"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chilling Reign](/set/chilling%20reign)",
          "Priced cards": "233",
          "Past the total": "35",
          "Median ask past": "$9.30",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.22",
          "Factor": "42.27x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Blaziken VMAX](/card/swsh6-201) 201/198",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)",
          "Priced cards": "230",
          "Past the total": "33",
          "Median ask past": "$5.10",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.16",
          "Factor": "31.87x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Charizard ex](/card/sv03-223) 223/197",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Priced cards": "226",
          "Past the total": "59",
          "Median ask past": "$7.54",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.16",
          "Factor": "47.13x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Greninja ex](/card/sv06-214) 214/167",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)",
          "Priced cards": "218",
          "Past the total": "56",
          "Median ask past": "$12.17",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.15",
          "Factor": "81.13x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Gastly](/card/sv05-177) 177/162",
          "Is it past the total?": "Yes"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Priced cards": "217",
          "Past the total": "21",
          "Median ask past": "$4.96",
          "Median ask inside": "$0.19",
          "Factor": "26.11x",
          "Dearest priced card": "[Giratina V](/card/swsh11-186) 186/196",
          "Is it past the total?": "No"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The ten dearest grails that are NOT past their set total, ranked by ask (ranks 1 to 10 of 37)",
      "columns": [
        "Rank",
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Number",
        "Raw ask",
        "Median ask past the total in that set"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Rank": "1",
          "Card": "[Torchic ☆](/card/ex7-108)",
          "Set": "Team Rocket Returns",
          "Number": "108 of 109",
          "Raw ask": "$4,500.00",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$326.30"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "2",
          "Card": "[Latias & Latios GX](/card/sm9-170)",
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Number": "170 of 181",
          "Raw ask": "$3,910.42",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$45.12"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "3",
          "Card": "[Lugia ex](/card/ex10-105)",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Number": "105 of 115",
          "Raw ask": "$2,500.00",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$370.00"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "4",
          "Card": "[Pikachu Star](/card/ex13-104)",
          "Set": "Holon Phantoms",
          "Number": "104 of 110",
          "Raw ask": "$1,899.99",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$335.54"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "5",
          "Card": "[Latias ☆](/card/ex8-105)",
          "Set": "Deoxys",
          "Number": "105 of 107",
          "Raw ask": "$1,650.00",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$284.99"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "6",
          "Card": "[Kyogre Star](/card/ex11-112)",
          "Set": "Delta Species",
          "Number": "112 of 113",
          "Raw ask": "$1,602.99",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$104.95"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "7",
          "Card": "[Regirock ☆](/card/ex12-91)",
          "Set": "Legend Maker",
          "Number": "91 of 92",
          "Raw ask": "$1,450.99",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$211.85"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "8",
          "Card": "[Gengar ex](/card/ex6-108)",
          "Set": "FireRed & LeafGreen",
          "Number": "108 of 112",
          "Raw ask": "$1,399.99",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$180.88"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "9",
          "Card": "[M Rayquaza EX](/card/xy7-98)",
          "Set": "[Ancient Origins](/set/ancient%20origins)",
          "Number": "98 of 98",
          "Raw ask": "$1,092.54",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$21.37"
        },
        {
          "Rank": "10",
          "Card": "[Black Kyurem-EX](/card/bw7-145)",
          "Set": "[Boundaries Crossed](/set/boundaries%20crossed)",
          "Number": "145 of 149",
          "Raw ask": "$900.96",
          "Median ask past the total in that set": "$155.80"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The tier rule is real and it is enormous",
    "The chase rule breaks 37 times",
    "Three ways this could be wrong",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Sources: `cards` for the card number and the set's printed total, and `price_history` read as the latest row per TCGplayer product id on or before day 20718 (September 22, 2026 UTC) for the raw ask. ALL PRICES HERE ARE ASKS, the same figure the card page prints; no sold median appears in this study. The population starts from 21,422 English products carrying an ask and applies two exclusions, both of which are stated rather than implied: 461 are dropped because no catalog row behind the product carries a printed total above zero, either because the field is null or because it is recorded as zero, and without a printed total a card cannot be scored against one. Those 461 sit in 14 sets and the largest blocks are ME05: Pitch Black (99 products, a 2026 expansion whose printed total our catalog does not hold for most of its cards), MEP Black Star Promos (78), Alternate Art Promos (54), EX Battle Stadium (48), First Partner Pack (33) and the three Trick or Trade bundles (30 each), so the drop is not confined to promo runs. A further 1,494 are dropped because the printed number has no leading integer to compare, which removes lettered promo numbers such as SWSH143. 19,467 products remain, 1,940 of them numbered past their set's printed total. EVERY COUNT IS DEDUPED ON THE TCGPLAYER PRODUCT ID: 1,212 ids are claimed by two catalog rows each, and the printed total used is the first positive one any row behind the product carries. A set qualifies for the set-level tests when it holds 40 or more of those products AND at least one of them is numbered past the total: 134 English sets clear the size bar and 95 clear both, with the 39 that hold no such card characterised in the article and ten of them named, rather than dropped silently. The dearest card of a set is the qualifying product with the highest ask, ties broken on the product id ascending. Medians use the upper-middle nearest-rank convention, the value at index floor(p x n) of the ascending sample. The 18-set table is the head of a single ranking of the 95 by priced-card count, ties broken on the set name, printed with no rank skipped. The era split uses release dates from our `setinfo:v4:` rows, which cover 67 of the 95 qualifying sets; the other 28 are excluded from that split only. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}