{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/launch-curve-chase-card-decay",
  "slug": "launch-curve-chase-card-decay",
  "title": "The Launch Curve: What Chase Cards Actually Do After Release Day",
  "summary": "Everyone knows the shape, spike, then slide. We measured it: nine sets, a hundred chase cards, day-by-day. The trough isn't days after launch, it's month seven. And there's a day-90 signal that has separated the winners from the sliders every time.",
  "section": "Market Structure",
  "published": "2026-07-28",
  "readMinutes": 11,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "−15% / −32% / −44%",
      "measures": "cohort median at day 30 / 180 / trough",
      "basis": "chase cards vs launch peak"
    },
    {
      "value": "day ~224",
      "measures": "median trough timing",
      "basis": "month 7-8, not launch week"
    },
    {
      "value": "day 90",
      "measures": "the classifier",
      "basis": "≥100% of launch = keeper; <70% = slider"
    },
    {
      "value": "9 sets",
      "measures": "full launch curves measured",
      "basis": "Jan 2025 – Jul 2026, daily data"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Every launch curve we hold, chase-card medians vs launch peak",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Released",
        "Day 30",
        "Day 90",
        "Day 180",
        "Trough (day)",
        "Today"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "Released": "Jan 2025",
          "Day 30": "1.05",
          "Day 90": "1.16",
          "Day 180": "0.68",
          "Trough (day)": "0.56 (378)",
          "Today": "0.94"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Released": "Mar 2025",
          "Day 30": "0.81",
          "Day 90": "0.61",
          "Day 180": "0.60",
          "Trough (day)": "0.42 (301)",
          "Today": "0.50"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Released": "May 2025",
          "Day 30": "1.01",
          "Day 90": "1.05",
          "Day 180": "0.94",
          "Trough (day)": "0.81 (224)",
          "Today": "1.09"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt)",
          "Released": "Jul 2025",
          "Day 30": "0.88",
          "Day 90": "1.01",
          "Day 180": "0.88",
          "Trough (day)": "0.84 (42)",
          "Today": "1.28"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[White Flare](/set/white%20flare)",
          "Released": "Jul 2025",
          "Day 30": "0.92",
          "Day 90": "0.94",
          "Day 180": "0.74",
          "Trough (day)": "0.72 (210)",
          "Today": "1.06"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)",
          "Released": "Sep 2025",
          "Day 30": "0.79",
          "Day 90": "0.56",
          "Day 180": "0.55",
          "Trough (day)": "0.49 (126)",
          "Today": "0.60"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Released": "Nov 2025",
          "Day 30": "0.70",
          "Day 90": "0.61",
          "Day 180": "0.58",
          "Trough (day)": "0.52 (245)",
          "Today": "0.53"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Released": "Mar 2026",
          "Day 30": "0.85",
          "Day 90": "0.68",
          "Day 180": "—",
          "Trough (day)": "0.58 (112)",
          "Today": "0.59"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Released": "May 2026",
          "Day 30": "0.65",
          "Day 90": "—",
          "Day 180": "—",
          "Trough (day)": "0.46 (56)",
          "Today": "0.47"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Total SET value: day-90 vs a year later",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Set value day 90",
        "Day 365",
        "Today",
        "Verdict"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt)",
          "Set value day 90": "1.01",
          "Day 365": "1.53",
          "Today": "1.53",
          "Verdict": "Keeper, flagged by day 90"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Set value day 90": "1.01",
          "Day 365": "1.15",
          "Today": "1.04",
          "Verdict": "Keeper, flagged by day 90"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "Set value day 90": "0.98",
          "Day 365": "0.51",
          "Today": "0.75",
          "Verdict": "Keeper w/ mania detour"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[White Flare](/set/white%20flare)",
          "Set value day 90": "0.83",
          "Day 365": "1.23",
          "Today": "1.23",
          "Verdict": "Late bloomer"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Set value day 90": "0.68",
          "Day 365": "—",
          "Today": "0.74",
          "Verdict": "Slider so far"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Set value day 90": "0.60",
          "Day 365": "0.51",
          "Today": "0.54",
          "Verdict": "Slider, flagged by day 90"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)",
          "Set value day 90": "0.53",
          "Day 365": "—",
          "Today": "0.53",
          "Verdict": "Slider, flagged by day 90"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The real curve: a slow grind to a month-seven bottom",
    "Day 90 tells you which curve you're on",
    "Where each current set sits on the curve right now"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Cohort: all nine sets released January 2025 – July 2026 (official release dates), each represented by its top 8–12 chase cards by current price with daily Near Mint market-price history from release. Each card's series is normalized to its launch-window peak (maximum of days 0–14); per-set curves are cross-card medians at weekly checkpoints; the cohort curve is the cross-set median (day-365 figures use only sets old enough, n=3). Total set value uses our daily set-value series normalized to the first-30-day peak. Younger sets' checkpoints are marked, where a set hasn't reached a checkpoint no value is shown. Day-90 classifier is descriptive of this cohort (n=7 with outcomes), with the Prismatic mania-baseline exception disclosed; it is a prior, not a guarantee. Figures as of July 28, 2026; linked pages price live. Correction, 2026-09-22, from an independent recomputation against production. Three claims did not survive. The classifier sentence read that every set holding its launch value at day 90 went on to trade at or above launch a year later, which Prismatic did not; two of the three did. The year-one range that followed a day-90 set value at or above launch was printed as 1.04x to 1.53x, which reads the Today column rather than the Day 365 column; on Day 365 it is 1.15x and 1.53x. And the list of sets below 70% at day 90 omitted Perfect Order at 0.68, which belongs there and behaves the same way. Two things this piece cannot show you at its own date. Prismatic Evolutions released January 17, 2025 and our per-card tape opens January 27, so its launch-window peak is a day-10 reading and its true launch mania is outside the series, which is the most likely reason its curve defeats the classifier. And the per-card daily histories behind every chase curve come from the provider rather than an owned table, so the checkpoint levels in both tables cannot be recomputed at July 28, 2026. Nothing here is financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}