{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/pokemon-card-ask-vs-sold-price",
  "slug": "pokemon-card-ask-vs-sold-price",
  "title": "Pokémon Card Ask vs Sold Price, Measured",
  "summary": "On 440 products holding both, the raw sold median runs 5.56 times the quoted ask under $5 and 1.05 times above $500. They agree only on expensive cards.",
  "section": "Market Structure",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "1.39x",
      "measures": "typical raw sold median over the quoted ask",
      "basis": "440 products with 5 or more verified raw comps, September 21, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "5.56x",
      "measures": "the same ratio on cards asking under $5",
      "basis": "51 products"
    },
    {
      "value": "1.05x",
      "measures": "the same ratio on cards asking $500 or more",
      "basis": "40 products, 45% of them inverted"
    },
    {
      "value": "25.2%",
      "measures": "of the 440 sell for less than they ask",
      "basis": "111 products"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Raw sold median against quoted ask, by what the card asks",
      "columns": [
        "Quoted ask",
        "Products",
        "Typical sold over ask",
        "Share selling below the ask",
        "Median ask",
        "Median sold"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Quoted ask": "Under $5",
          "Products": "51",
          "Typical sold over ask": "5.56x",
          "Share selling below the ask": "0.0%",
          "Median ask": "$2.73",
          "Median sold": "$14.99"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$5 to $25",
          "Products": "103",
          "Typical sold over ask": "2.14x",
          "Share selling below the ask": "7.8%",
          "Median ask": "$15.27",
          "Median sold": "$30.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$25 to $100",
          "Products": "121",
          "Typical sold over ask": "1.24x",
          "Share selling below the ask": "25.6%",
          "Median ask": "$53.04",
          "Median sold": "$75.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$100 to $500",
          "Products": "125",
          "Typical sold over ask": "1.08x",
          "Share selling below the ask": "43.2%",
          "Median ask": "$218.33",
          "Median sold": "$204.25"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$500 and up",
          "Products": "40",
          "Typical sold over ask": "1.05x",
          "Share selling below the ask": "45.0%",
          "Median ask": "$799.69",
          "Median sold": "$800.00"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "What a raw card actually fetches on eBay, in finer bands",
      "columns": [
        "Quoted ask",
        "Products",
        "Median ask",
        "Median raw sold",
        "25th percentile sold",
        "75th percentile sold"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Quoted ask": "Under $2",
          "Products": "15",
          "Median ask": "$1.50",
          "Median raw sold": "$9.99",
          "25th percentile sold": "$6.63",
          "75th percentile sold": "$14.99"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$2 to $5",
          "Products": "36",
          "Median ask": "$3.79",
          "Median raw sold": "$21.24",
          "25th percentile sold": "$12.49",
          "75th percentile sold": "$27.80"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$5 to $10",
          "Products": "29",
          "Median ask": "$7.47",
          "Median raw sold": "$24.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$13.24",
          "75th percentile sold": "$35.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$10 to $25",
          "Products": "74",
          "Median ask": "$17.52",
          "Median raw sold": "$33.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$25.00",
          "75th percentile sold": "$50.50"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$25 to $50",
          "Products": "53",
          "Median ask": "$35.42",
          "Median raw sold": "$55.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$40.00",
          "75th percentile sold": "$79.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$50 to $100",
          "Products": "68",
          "Median ask": "$67.58",
          "Median raw sold": "$85.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$58.00",
          "75th percentile sold": "$115.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$100 to $250",
          "Products": "76",
          "Median ask": "$158.97",
          "Median raw sold": "$185.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$135.00",
          "75th percentile sold": "$225.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$250 to $1,000",
          "Products": "79",
          "Median ask": "$445.00",
          "Median raw sold": "$490.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$305.00",
          "75th percentile sold": "$710.00"
        },
        {
          "Quoted ask": "$1,000 and up",
          "Products": "10",
          "Median ask": "$1,415.27",
          "Median raw sold": "$1,525.00",
          "25th percentile sold": "$600.00",
          "75th percentile sold": "$2,200.00"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Cards whose raw ask sits furthest above their raw sold median",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Quoted ask",
        "Raw sold median",
        "Verified comps",
        "Sold over ask"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Rayquaza EX](/card/xyp-XY69), XY Black Star Promos",
          "Quoted ask": "$213.62",
          "Raw sold median": "$90.00",
          "Verified comps": "13",
          "Sold over ask": "0.42x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[M Charizard EX](/card/xy2-13), [Flashfire](/set/flashfire)",
          "Quoted ask": "$68.57",
          "Raw sold median": "$31.00",
          "Verified comps": "25",
          "Sold over ask": "0.45x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Gyarados δ](/card/ex13-8), Holon Phantoms",
          "Quoted ask": "$304.74",
          "Raw sold median": "$138.53",
          "Verified comps": "25",
          "Sold over ask": "0.45x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard G](/card/dpp-DP45), DP Black Star Promos",
          "Quoted ask": "$399.08",
          "Raw sold median": "$190.00",
          "Verified comps": "19",
          "Sold over ask": "0.48x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/dp7-103), [Stormfront](/set/stormfront)",
          "Quoted ask": "$737.50",
          "Raw sold median": "$400.00",
          "Verified comps": "17",
          "Sold over ask": "0.54x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Colress](/card/bw8-135), [Plasma Storm](/set/plasma%20storm)",
          "Quoted ask": "$89.66",
          "Raw sold median": "$50.00",
          "Verified comps": "25",
          "Sold over ask": "0.56x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Armored Mewtwo](/card/smp-SM228), SM Black Star Promos",
          "Quoted ask": "$309.30",
          "Raw sold median": "$172.50",
          "Verified comps": "14",
          "Sold over ask": "0.56x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/base1-4), [Base Set](/set/base%20set)",
          "Quoted ask": "$919.98",
          "Raw sold median": "$515.00",
          "Verified comps": "25",
          "Sold over ask": "0.56x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard δ](/card/ex14-4), Crystal Guardians",
          "Quoted ask": "$809.33",
          "Raw sold median": "$475.00",
          "Verified comps": "25",
          "Sold over ask": "0.59x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Gyarados](/card/xy12-34), [XY Evolutions](/set/xy%20-%20evolutions)",
          "Quoted ask": "$10.06",
          "Raw sold median": "$5.99",
          "Verified comps": "25",
          "Sold over ask": "0.60x"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Two honest numbers, one card",
    "The gap closes as the card gets expensive",
    "Where the ask is too high, it is too high by a lot",
    "Is this ratio a fact or a reading?",
    "What would overturn this",
    "What this study cannot show"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Sources: `ebay_divergence` (card, UTC day, eBay raw sold median, recorded comp count, quoted market price) on day 20717 (September 21, 2026), and `price_history` (product, day, price, cheapest listing) on day 20718 for the ask-versus-floor cross-check. The eBay median is the 10%-trimmed median of up to 25 recent eBay sold listings for that product, each rejected if its title matches any grader pattern and each required to match the card's name, set, number and printing; the field the comp count reads is the length of that kept list, so its maximum is 25 and a zero means the list was not stored on that row rather than that no sales occurred. The quoted ask is the canonical market price our card pages print for that card on the same reading. The table is keyed on the catalog row and 1,212 marketplace product ids are claimed by two catalog rows each, so every count here is deduped to one row per product, keeping the row with the deepest comp pool: 1,108 usable rows collapse to 1,065 products. The headline population is the 440 of those 1,065 carrying at least five recorded comps; the five-comp gate is an exclusion and the unrestricted 1,065-product figures are printed beside it so the gate can be judged (median 1.60x unrestricted against 1.39x gated, 25.2% inverted in both). Bands are cut on the ask. Medians and percentiles use the upper-middle nearest-rank convention: the value at index floor(p x n) of the ascending sample, which puts the median at the upper middle on even samples. The named ask-over-sold table is the head of a single ranking of every product with at least ten verified raw comps, 287 of them, ordered by sold over ask ascending, printed ranks one to ten with none skipped. Every left-hand figure in this study is an ASK and every right-hand figure is a SOLD median. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}