{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/pokemon-card-drawdowns",
  "slug": "pokemon-card-drawdowns",
  "title": "How Far Do Pokemon Cards Fall? A Drawdown Census",
  "summary": "Across the 2,766 cards that stayed continuously quoted for 603 days, the median card fell 22.48% from its own peak, and 77.11% were still below that peak at the end.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "22.48%",
      "measures": "median maximum drawdown",
      "basis": "2,766 survivors, 603 days of tape"
    },
    {
      "value": "77.11%",
      "measures": "sat below their own peak at the end",
      "basis": "median 8.57% below"
    },
    {
      "value": "74.55%",
      "measures": "of survivors regained the peak",
      "basis": "an upper bound: the delisted are absent"
    },
    {
      "value": "7.52%",
      "measures": "fell 50% or more at some point",
      "basis": "208 of 2,766"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Maximum drawdown from a card's own running peak, 2,766 cards, tape to 2026-09-22",
      "columns": [
        "Maximum drawdown",
        "Cards",
        "Share",
        "Of those, share that regained the peak"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "no drawdown at all",
          "Cards": "2",
          "Share": "0.07%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "100.00%"
        },
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "under 10%",
          "Cards": "565",
          "Share": "20.43%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "86.90%"
        },
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "10 to 25%",
          "Cards": "980",
          "Share": "35.43%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "79.80%"
        },
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "25 to 50%",
          "Cards": "1,011",
          "Share": "36.55%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "69.34%"
        },
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "50 to 75%",
          "Cards": "159",
          "Share": "5.75%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "42.77%"
        },
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "75 to 90%",
          "Cards": "40",
          "Share": "1.45%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "40.00%"
        },
        {
          "Maximum drawdown": "90% or worse",
          "Cards": "9",
          "Share": "0.33%",
          "Of those, share that regained the peak": "22.22%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Distance below the all-time recorded peak at the last recorded week",
      "columns": [
        "Position",
        "Cards",
        "Share",
        "Median weeks spent under the peak"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Position": "at the peak",
          "Cards": "633",
          "Share": "22.89%",
          "Median weeks spent under the peak": "0"
        },
        {
          "Position": "under 10% below",
          "Cards": "1,183",
          "Share": "42.77%",
          "Median weeks spent under the peak": "23"
        },
        {
          "Position": "10 to 25% below",
          "Cards": "671",
          "Share": "24.26%",
          "Median weeks spent under the peak": "49"
        },
        {
          "Position": "25 to 50% below",
          "Cards": "237",
          "Share": "8.57%",
          "Median weeks spent under the peak": "59"
        },
        {
          "Position": "50 to 75% below",
          "Cards": "36",
          "Share": "1.30%",
          "Median weeks spent under the peak": "72"
        },
        {
          "Position": "more than 75% below",
          "Cards": "6",
          "Share": "0.22%",
          "Median weeks spent under the peak": "68"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The same census restated above price floors, price measured at the start of each card's tape",
      "columns": [
        "Floor at tape start",
        "Cards",
        "Median maximum drawdown",
        "Share falling 50% or more",
        "Share that regained the peak",
        "Share under peak at the end"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Floor at tape start": "no floor",
          "Cards": "2,766",
          "Median maximum drawdown": "22.48%",
          "Share falling 50% or more": "7.52%",
          "Share that regained the peak": "74.55%",
          "Share under peak at the end": "77.11%"
        },
        {
          "Floor at tape start": "$1 and up",
          "Cards": "1,772",
          "Median maximum drawdown": "18.38%",
          "Share falling 50% or more": "3.67%",
          "Share that regained the peak": "74.44%",
          "Share under peak at the end": "75.79%"
        },
        {
          "Floor at tape start": "$5 and up",
          "Cards": "903",
          "Median maximum drawdown": "12.82%",
          "Share falling 50% or more": "2.88%",
          "Share that regained the peak": "73.75%",
          "Share under peak at the end": "70.87%"
        },
        {
          "Floor at tape start": "$25 and up",
          "Cards": "283",
          "Median maximum drawdown": "10.64%",
          "Share falling 50% or more": "2.47%",
          "Share that regained the peak": "75.62%",
          "Share under peak at the end": "61.84%"
        },
        {
          "Floor at tape start": "$100 and up",
          "Cards": "68",
          "Median maximum drawdown": "12.13%",
          "Share falling 50% or more": "4.41%",
          "Share that regained the peak": "79.41%",
          "Share under peak at the end": "52.94%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The fifteen deepest drawdowns among cards that started at $25 or more, n = 283",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Peak",
        "Trough",
        "Drawdown",
        "Peak to trough",
        "Status"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Vaporeon ☆](/card/ex16-102)",
          "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)",
          "Peak": "$1,999.99",
          "Trough": "$450.00",
          "Drawdown": "-77.50%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-07-28 to 2026-02-09",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Jolteon ☆](/card/ex16-101)",
          "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)",
          "Peak": "$760.00",
          "Trough": "$219.95",
          "Drawdown": "-71.06%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-01-27 to 2026-05-10",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Nest Ball](/card/sm1-158)",
          "Set": "Sun & Moon",
          "Peak": "$27.32",
          "Trough": "$9.13",
          "Drawdown": "-66.58%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-01-27 to 2026-09-22",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon GX](/card/sm1-142)",
          "Set": "Sun & Moon",
          "Peak": "$97.93",
          "Trough": "$35.03",
          "Drawdown": "-64.23%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-04-14 to 2025-10-06",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[M Charizard EX](/card/xy12-13)",
          "Set": "[XY Evolutions](/set/xy%20-%20evolutions)",
          "Peak": "$106.98",
          "Trough": "$41.30",
          "Drawdown": "-61.39%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-09-15 to 2026-08-26",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon V](/card/swsh7-189)",
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Peak": "$687.88",
          "Trough": "$297.36",
          "Drawdown": "-56.77%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-09-29 to 2026-01-26",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Moltres & Zapdos & Articuno GX](/card/smp-SM210)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos",
          "Peak": "$127.51",
          "Trough": "$55.34",
          "Drawdown": "-56.60%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-06-23 to 2025-11-03",
          "Status": "regained"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Absol ex](/card/ex16-92)",
          "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)",
          "Peak": "$114.48",
          "Trough": "$62.07",
          "Drawdown": "-45.78%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-10-06 to 2025-10-13",
          "Status": "regained"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mew V](/card/swsh8-251)",
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Peak": "$151.64",
          "Trough": "$82.85",
          "Drawdown": "-45.36%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-09-08 to 2025-12-29",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard & Braixen GX](/card/smp-SM230)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos",
          "Peak": "$118.16",
          "Trough": "$67.24",
          "Drawdown": "-43.09%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-06-30 to 2026-02-16",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Kyogre-EX](/card/bw5-104)",
          "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers)",
          "Peak": "$500.00",
          "Trough": "$284.67",
          "Drawdown": "-43.07%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-05-26 to 2025-09-01",
          "Status": "regained"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Flareon VMAX](/card/swshp-SWSH180)",
          "Set": "SWSH Black Star Promos",
          "Peak": "$73.87",
          "Trough": "$42.29",
          "Drawdown": "-42.75%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-09-15 to 2026-03-02",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lillie](/card/sm1-147)",
          "Set": "Sun & Moon",
          "Peak": "$73.73",
          "Trough": "$43.25",
          "Drawdown": "-41.34%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-03-24 to 2025-12-22",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Rotom V](/card/swsh11-177)",
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Peak": "$35.50",
          "Trough": "$21.04",
          "Drawdown": "-40.73%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-03-17 to 2025-08-04",
          "Status": "still under"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu SWSH020](/card/swshp-SWSH020)",
          "Set": "SWSH Black Star Promos",
          "Peak": "$122.19",
          "Trough": "$73.71",
          "Drawdown": "-39.68%",
          "Peak to trough": "2025-10-13 to 2026-01-26",
          "Status": "still under"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Most cards fall a fifth; a few fall almost everything",
    "Why the deepest percentage falls are not the biggest losses"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Population: the per-card weekly `ppthist:<tcgId>` series in `api_cache`, joined to `cards` on `tcg_id`, restricted to cards whose series reaches 2025-01-27 and carries at least 40 points. That is 2,766 cards of the 19,876 on the tape, with a median recorded span of 603 days and a maximum of 603, the modal last recorded date being 2026-09-22. Prices are TCGplayer market prices, which are ASKS; no sold median appears anywhere in this study. Every panel is keyed on the TCGplayer product id and carries exactly one row per product. 51,719 catalogue rows carry a TCGplayer product id, and they resolve to 50,507 distinct ids: 1,212 ids are claimed by two rows each, 2,424 rows in all. Those pairs are not a Japanese print against its English twin, which is what we assumed before counting them. Every one of the 1,212 is a same-language pair, 972 Japanese and 240 English, and they are overwhelmingly one product indexed under two catalogue spellings of the same set, as the XY trainer kits are. Each id collapses to a single row, preferring an English row and then the lexically first catalogue id, so no product enters a cross-section, a factor sort or a census twice. The tie-break is stated rather than assumed away, because it decides which of the two spellings a shared product is filed under.  For each card the running peak is recomputed forward through its own series and the drawdown at each point is the price divided by the running peak minus one; the maximum drawdown is the most negative such value. A card counts as having regained its peak if any later point in its own series reaches or exceeds the peak that produced its maximum drawdown. Weeks under the peak counts backward from the last recorded point until a point at or above the all-time recorded peak is reached. Every card is compared only to its own history: no card is measured against a peak it was not quoted at, and no cross-card benchmark is used. A card counts as BELOW its peak only when its last price sits more than 0.01% under it, so that a floating-point remainder is not published as a drawdown; an independent recompute using a strict zero instead gets 2,134 cards under peak rather than 2,133, and the same one-card offset moves the deepest floor row from 61.84% to 62.19%. The threshold is the reason, not a disagreement about the data. Price-floor restatements use the price at the FIRST point of each card's own tape, never the last, so the floor cannot select on outcome. The median convention is the upper-middle element on even samples. The penny-floor check counts cards whose trough quote is five cents or less among those falling 50% or more."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}