{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/pokemon-card-market-concentration",
  "slug": "pokemon-card-market-concentration",
  "title": "How Concentrated Is the Pokemon Card Market?",
  "summary": "Across the 44,395 cards we price, 2.14% of them hold half of all market value. Price movement is more concentrated still: ten cards were a sixth of it.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "2.14%",
      "measures": "of priced cards hold half the market's value",
      "basis": "952 of 44,395, 2026-09-22"
    },
    {
      "value": "0.8677",
      "measures": "Gini coefficient of card value",
      "basis": "across the whole priced tape"
    },
    {
      "value": "17.32%",
      "measures": "of all dollar movement, from ten cards",
      "basis": "over 23 days, 43,800-card panel"
    },
    {
      "value": "0.9627",
      "measures": "Gini of absolute dollar movement",
      "basis": "movement beats value for skew"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Share of total market value held by the top slice, 44,395 cards, 2026-09-22",
      "columns": [
        "Slice",
        "Cards",
        "Share of value",
        "Dollars",
        "Cheapest card in the slice"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Slice": "top 0.1%",
          "Cards": "44",
          "Share of value": "10.75%",
          "Dollars": "$79,451",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$1,066.19"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 0.5%",
          "Cards": "222",
          "Share of value": "25.70%",
          "Dollars": "$189,937",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$437.87"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 1%",
          "Cards": "444",
          "Share of value": "35.97%",
          "Dollars": "$265,874",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$279.90"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 2%",
          "Cards": "888",
          "Share of value": "48.65%",
          "Dollars": "$359,614",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$163.21"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 5%",
          "Cards": "2,220",
          "Share of value": "67.03%",
          "Dollars": "$495,410",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$68.07"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 10%",
          "Cards": "4,440",
          "Share of value": "80.20%",
          "Dollars": "$592,822",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$29.64"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 25%",
          "Cards": "11,099",
          "Share of value": "93.34%",
          "Dollars": "$689,924",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$6.99"
        },
        {
          "Slice": "top 50%",
          "Cards": "22,198",
          "Share of value": "98.66%",
          "Dollars": "$729,214",
          "Cheapest card in the slice": "$1.50"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The priced catalogue by price band, 2026-09-22",
      "columns": [
        "Price band",
        "Cards",
        "Share of cards",
        "Total value",
        "Share of value"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Price band": "under $0.25",
          "Cards": "9,386",
          "Share of cards": "21.14%",
          "Total value": "$1,346",
          "Share of value": "0.18%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$0.25 to $1",
          "Cards": "9,994",
          "Share of cards": "22.51%",
          "Total value": "$5,173",
          "Share of value": "0.70%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$1 to $5",
          "Cards": "11,571",
          "Share of cards": "26.06%",
          "Total value": "$29,209",
          "Share of value": "3.95%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$5 to $25",
          "Cards": "8,439",
          "Share of cards": "19.01%",
          "Total value": "$95,398",
          "Share of value": "12.91%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$25 to $100",
          "Cards": "3,535",
          "Share of cards": "7.96%",
          "Total value": "$174,285",
          "Share of value": "23.58%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$100 to $500",
          "Cards": "1,300",
          "Share of cards": "2.93%",
          "Total value": "$268,270",
          "Share of value": "36.29%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$500 to $2,500",
          "Cards": "163",
          "Share of cards": "0.37%",
          "Total value": "$140,549",
          "Share of value": "19.02%"
        },
        {
          "Price band": "$2,500 and up",
          "Cards": "7",
          "Share of cards": "0.02%",
          "Total value": "$24,910",
          "Share of value": "3.37%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Share of all absolute dollar movement, by the largest movers, 43,800-card panel, 23 days",
      "columns": [
        "Movers",
        "Share of the panel",
        "Share of all dollar movement"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Movers": "top 10",
          "Share of the panel": "0.023%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "17.32%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 50",
          "Share of the panel": "0.114%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "34.83%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 100",
          "Share of the panel": "0.228%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "45.04%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 250",
          "Share of the panel": "0.571%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "60.55%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 500",
          "Share of the panel": "1.142%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "72.15%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 1,000",
          "Share of the panel": "2.283%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "81.74%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 2,500",
          "Share of the panel": "5.708%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "91.39%"
        },
        {
          "Movers": "top 5,000",
          "Share of the panel": "11.416%",
          "Share of all dollar movement": "96.21%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The ten largest dollar moves, 2026-08-30 to 2026-09-22",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "2026-08-30",
        "2026-09-22",
        "Change",
        "Percent"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Shining Tyranitar](/card/neo4-113)",
          "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)",
          "2026-08-30": "$4,249.99",
          "2026-09-22": "$662.25",
          "Change": "-$3,587.74",
          "Percent": "-84.42%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Shining Mewtwo](/card/neo4-109)",
          "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)",
          "2026-08-30": "$3,000.00",
          "2026-09-22": "$940.00",
          "Change": "-$2,060.00",
          "Percent": "-68.67%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Shining Celebi](/card/neo4-106)",
          "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)",
          "2026-08-30": "$1,801.00",
          "2026-09-22": "$435.00",
          "Change": "-$1,366.00",
          "Percent": "-75.85%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Jolteon ☆](/card/ex16-101)",
          "Set": "[Power Keepers](/set/power%20keepers)",
          "2026-08-30": "$1,999.94",
          "2026-09-22": "$750.00",
          "Change": "-$1,249.94",
          "Percent": "-62.50%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Shining Kabutops](/card/neo4-108)",
          "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)",
          "2026-08-30": "$1,399.95",
          "2026-09-22": "$382.44",
          "Change": "-$1,017.51",
          "Percent": "-72.68%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mewtwo ex](/card/enx-696687)",
          "Set": "30th Celebration",
          "2026-08-30": "$1,000.00",
          "2026-09-22": "$83.53",
          "Change": "-$916.47",
          "Percent": "-91.65%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Rayquaza ex](/card/ex8-102)",
          "Set": "Deoxys",
          "2026-08-30": "$999.00",
          "2026-09-22": "$129.00",
          "Change": "-$870.00",
          "Percent": "-87.09%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Rayquaza - 232/XY-P](/card/jat-602136)",
          "Set": "XY-P: XY Promos",
          "2026-08-30": "$497.49",
          "2026-09-22": "$1,299.99",
          "Change": "+$802.50",
          "Percent": "+161.31%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Golem](/card/ecard3-148)",
          "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "2026-08-30": "$599.99",
          "2026-09-22": "$1,387.99",
          "Change": "+$788.00",
          "Percent": "+131.34%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon](/card/neo2-13)",
          "Set": "Neo Discovery",
          "2026-08-30": "$1,500.00",
          "2026-09-22": "$752.74",
          "Change": "-$747.26",
          "Percent": "-49.82%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Where the money actually sits, counted across the whole priced catalogue",
    "The number nobody publishes: how few cards produce the market's price action"
  ],
  "method": [
    "As of 2026-09-22. Value concentration is a single-day cross-section of `price_history` on day 20718, every TCGplayer product carrying a positive price that day, n = 44,395 after joining `cards` on `tcg_id`; prices are the flagship-printing TCGplayer market price, an ASK. Every panel is keyed on the TCGplayer product id and carries exactly one row per product. 51,719 catalogue rows carry a TCGplayer product id, and they resolve to 50,507 distinct ids: 1,212 ids are claimed by two rows each, 2,424 rows in all. Those pairs are not a Japanese print against its English twin, which is what we assumed before counting them. Every one of the 1,212 is a same-language pair, 972 Japanese and 240 English, and they are overwhelmingly one product indexed under two catalogue spellings of the same set, as the XY trainer kits are. Each id collapses to a single row, preferring an English row and then the lexically first catalogue id, so no product enters a cross-section, a factor sort or a census twice. The tie-break is stated rather than assumed away, because it decides which of the two spellings a shared product is filed under. Shares are straight sums over that population with no weighting and no modelling; the Gini coefficient is computed on the raw price vector. Slice sizes are rounded to the nearest card, so the top 1% is 444 cards rather than 443.95. Movement concentration uses a separate panel: the 43,800 products carrying a price on BOTH day 20695 (2026-08-30) and day 20718, so that the 595 entrants and 299 exits inside the window contribute nothing to any change figure. Absolute movement is the sum of |price on 20718 minus price on 20695| over that panel; the movement Gini is computed on that vector of absolute changes. The 1.88% aggregate change is the sum of levels on the last day divided by the sum of levels on the first, which is a price-weighted reading and is labelled as such. Days 20704 to 20713 are partial dumps covering 35,700 to 50,400 products rather than the full catalogue; no figure in this study depends on those days, because every figure uses either the last day alone or the two endpoints, and both of those days are full dumps. That was checked rather than assumed, because a partial evaluation day drops cheap cards first and would tilt every share in this study toward the expensive end: day 20718 carries 52,309 priced products, the highest count anywhere in the window, and day 20695 carries 51,822. The median convention is the upper-middle element on even samples. No price floor, no top-N window, no rarity or language exclusion: the universe is the catalogue as priced."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}