{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/pokemon-card-price-sample-size", "slug": "pokemon-card-price-sample-size", "title": "How Many Sales Does a Pokémon Card Price Need?", "summary": "A sold median built on three or four sales moves 19.5% when it moves. One built on 100 or more moves 5.4%. Measured across 25,022 card-grade series.", "section": "Methodology", "published": "2026-09-22", "readMinutes": 9, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "8", "measures": "verified sales behind the median sold median", "basis": "29,676 card-and-grade rows, September 22, 2026" }, { "value": "56.3%", "measures": "of published sold medians stand on fewer than ten sales", "basis": "16,715 of 29,676" }, { "value": "19.5% vs 5.4%", "measures": "typical one-day move, 3 to 4 comps against 100 or more", "basis": "175,154 day-pairs across 25,022 series" }, { "value": "60.4%", "measures": "of series did not change by a cent in eight days", "basis": "15,104 of 25,022" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Comp depth behind every published sold median, September 22, 2026", "columns": [ "Verified sales behind the median", "Rows", "Share", "Median price of those rows" ], "rows": [ { "Verified sales behind the median": "3 to 4", "Rows": "8,292", "Share": "27.9%", "Median price of those rows": "$49.50" }, { "Verified sales behind the median": "5 to 9", "Rows": "8,423", "Share": "28.4%", "Median price of those rows": "$61.39" }, { "Verified sales behind the median": "10 to 19", "Rows": "5,462", "Share": "18.4%", "Median price of those rows": "$69.38" }, { "Verified sales behind the median": "20 to 49", "Rows": "4,234", "Share": "14.3%", "Median price of those rows": "$64.50" }, { "Verified sales behind the median": "50 to 99", "Rows": "1,593", "Share": "5.4%", "Median price of those rows": "$65.50" }, { "Verified sales behind the median": "100 or more", "Rows": "1,672", "Share": "5.6%", "Median price of those rows": "$94.25" } ] }, { "title": "Comp depth by grade, same day, same tape", "columns": [ "Grade", "Rows", "Median comps", "Share under ten comps" ], "rows": [ { "Grade": "PSA 10", "Rows": "8,913", "Median comps": "11", "Share under ten comps": "44.7%" }, { "Grade": "PSA 9", "Rows": "8,784", "Median comps": "9", "Share under ten comps": "50.5%" }, { "Grade": "CGC 10", "Rows": "6,157", "Median comps": "7", "Share under ten comps": "59.0%" }, { "Grade": "CGC 9", "Rows": "3,420", "Median comps": "5", "Share under ten comps": "77.3%" }, { "Grade": "CGC 9.5", "Rows": "1,152", "Median comps": "4", "Share under ten comps": "87.0%" }, { "Grade": "BGS 9", "Rows": "570", "Median comps": "5", "Share under ten comps": "84.0%" }, { "Grade": "BGS 9.5", "Rows": "680", "Median comps": "4", "Share under ten comps": "80.3%" } ] }, { "title": "One-day moves in a sold median, by the depth of the pool behind it", "columns": [ "Comps behind the median", "Day-pairs", "Pairs where it changed", "Typical move when it changed", "90th percentile move", "Share of moves of 50% or more" ], "rows": [ { "Comps behind the median": "3 to 4", "Day-pairs": "44,457", "Pairs where it changed": "1.3%", "Typical move when it changed": "19.5%", "90th percentile move": "67.5%", "Share of moves of 50% or more": "18.0%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "5 to 9", "Day-pairs": "50,582", "Pairs where it changed": "4.4%", "Typical move when it changed": "21.2%", "90th percentile move": "83.9%", "Share of moves of 50% or more": "23.0%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "10 to 19", "Day-pairs": "33,096", "Pairs where it changed": "7.7%", "Typical move when it changed": "16.5%", "90th percentile move": "66.5%", "Share of moves of 50% or more": "15.6%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "20 to 49", "Day-pairs": "26,124", "Pairs where it changed": "12.6%", "Typical move when it changed": "13.1%", "90th percentile move": "50.8%", "Share of moves of 50% or more": "10.7%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "50 to 99", "Day-pairs": "9,919", "Pairs where it changed": "19.9%", "Typical move when it changed": "10.7%", "90th percentile move": "41.3%", "Share of moves of 50% or more": "6.7%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "100 or more", "Day-pairs": "10,976", "Pairs where it changed": "33.1%", "Typical move when it changed": "5.4%", "90th percentile move": "21.3%", "Share of moves of 50% or more": "2.5%" } ] }, { "title": "Eight-day range among series that repriced at all", "columns": [ "Comps behind the median", "Series", "Share that repriced", "Typical high-over-low range", "Share ranging 2x or more" ], "rows": [ { "Comps behind the median": "3 to 4", "Series": "6,351", "Share that repriced": "8.8%", "Typical high-over-low range": "1.216x", "Share ranging 2x or more": "11.5%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "5 to 9", "Series": "7,226", "Share that repriced": "28.5%", "Typical high-over-low range": "1.254x", "Share ranging 2x or more": "14.7%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "10 to 19", "Series": "4,728", "Share that repriced": "46.1%", "Typical high-over-low range": "1.208x", "Share ranging 2x or more": "10.3%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "20 to 49", "Series": "3,732", "Share that repriced": "65.2%", "Typical high-over-low range": "1.191x", "Share ranging 2x or more": "7.1%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "50 to 99", "Series": "1,417", "Share that repriced": "83.3%", "Typical high-over-low range": "1.179x", "Share ranging 2x or more": "6.8%" }, { "Comps behind the median": "100 or more", "Series": "1,568", "Share that repriced": "95.8%", "Typical high-over-low range": "1.134x", "Share ranging 2x or more": "2.8%" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "Most sold medians are built on single-digit samples", "What depth actually buys you", "A still price is not a stable price", "Three thresholds worth memorising", "What would overturn this", "What this study cannot show" ], "method": [ "Source: the `graded_snapshots` table, one row per card key, grade and UTC day, written by our daily graded cron. A series is a (card key, grade) pair. The census is every row with a median above zero on day 20718 (September 22, 2026 UTC), 29,676 rows across 12,449 card keys and seven grade labels (PSA 9, PSA 10, CGC 9, CGC 9.5, CGC 10, BGS 9, BGS 9.5). The panel is every series present on all eight days 20711 to 20718 (September 15 to September 22, 2026), 25,022 series across 10,333 cards, which is a balanced panel by construction: series appearing on some days and not others are excluded, and that exclusion removes cards the cron reached intermittently rather than a price stratum. Day 20719 exists in the table and is excluded because it was still being written. Medians and percentiles use the upper-middle nearest-rank convention: the value at index floor(p x n) of the ascending sample, which puts the median at the upper middle on even samples. COMP-DEPTH BANDS ARE CUT ON THE SERIES' SAMPLE SIZE ON DAY 20718, the last day of the window, so every day-pair and every eight-day range belonging to one series falls in one band and the bands partition all 175,154 pairs and all 25,022 series exactly once. Cutting instead on the earlier day of each pair moves the 3-to-4 row to 45,877 pairs, a 2.3% change rate and a 24.3% typical move, and widens rather than narrows the gap to the 100-plus row, so the direction of this result does not depend on the choice. A move is a change of any size in the median between two consecutive recorded days; the conditional statistics are computed only over pairs where the median changed. `sample_size` is the provider's count of kept verified sold comps for that card and grade; it is not capped. All prices here are SOLD medians from verified graded sales, never asks. A row absent from the table is not recorded, not zero. The 221,817-pair monotonicity check runs over the full recorded history of the table, day 20655 to 20719. Nothing here is investment advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }