{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/pokemon-evolution-stage-value",
  "slug": "pokemon-evolution-stage-value",
  "title": "Does the Evolution Stage Change What a Pokemon Card Is Worth?",
  "summary": "Across the 21,405 cards that carry a printed evolution stage and a Near Mint quote, the Stage 2 median is $4.26 and the Basic median is $1.10, a 3.9x premium. Hold the set and the rarity slot constant, among main expansions with five or more cards at both rungs and the Promo rarity dropped, and that premium is 1.0x on 92 cells, with Stage 2 ahead in 43 of them. Keep every group and every rarity and it is 1.1x on 107 cells. The gap was never the evolution. It was the rarity the card was printed at, and one rung does come out genuinely cheaper.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-10-12",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "3.9x",
      "measures": "Stage 2 median Near Mint price divided by Basic, pooled",
      "basis": "21,405 cards with a printed Stage and a Near Mint quote"
    },
    {
      "value": "1.0x",
      "measures": "the same ratio paired inside one set and one rarity",
      "basis": "92 main expansion cells with 5 or more at both rungs, Promo rarity dropped; Stage 2 ahead in 43"
    },
    {
      "value": "0.3%",
      "measures": "of Stage 2 cards are printed at Common",
      "basis": "8 of 2,465, against 44.2% of 12,570 Basics"
    },
    {
      "value": "0.85x",
      "measures": "Stage 1 against Basic, paired inside set and rarity",
      "basis": "287 cells; Basic dearer in 190, Stage 1 in 88, 9 level to the cent"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The three rungs inside one rarity slot at a time",
      "columns": [
        "Rarity",
        "Basic",
        "Stage 1",
        "Stage 2",
        "Stage 2 vs Basic"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Rarity": "Common",
          "Basic": "$0.28 (5,555)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.22 (533)",
          "Stage 2": "$0.20 (8)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.71x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Uncommon",
          "Basic": "$0.46 (1,032)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.33 (2,337)",
          "Stage 2": "$0.20 (141)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.43x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Rare",
          "Basic": "$1.00 (1,056)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.68 (1,463)",
          "Stage 2": "$1.04 (779)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.0x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Holo Rare",
          "Basic": "$7.34 (614)",
          "Stage 1": "$11.23 (544)",
          "Stage 2": "$8.91 (635)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.2x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Promo",
          "Basic": "$10.31 (1,793)",
          "Stage 1": "$8.47 (645)",
          "Stage 2": "$9.93 (404)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.96x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Ultra Rare",
          "Basic": "$7.66 (1,315)",
          "Stage 1": "$4.68 (247)",
          "Stage 2": "$17.38 (174)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "2.3x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Illustration Rare",
          "Basic": "$11.63 (276)",
          "Stage 1": "$8.76 (181)",
          "Stage 2": "$10.88 (54)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.94x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Double Rare",
          "Basic": "$1.02 (231)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.83 (156)",
          "Stage 2": "$1.26 (123)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.2x"
        },
        {
          "Rarity": "Secret Rare",
          "Basic": "$84.99 (142)",
          "Stage 1": "$25.01 (49)",
          "Stage 2": "$121.14 (42)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.4x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Ten of the 114 cells that hold all three rungs",
      "columns": [
        "Set and rarity",
        "Basic",
        "Stage 1",
        "Stage 2",
        "Stage 2 vs Basic"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Deck Exclusives](/set/deck%20exclusives), Rare",
          "Basic": "$0.56 (88)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.91 (94)",
          "Stage 2": "$1.32 (110)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "2.4x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[World Championship Decks](/set/world%20championship%20decks), Rare",
          "Basic": "$4.80 (97)",
          "Stage 1": "$2.19 (47)",
          "Stage 2": "$4.92 (40)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.0x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Prize Pack Series Cards](/set/prize%20pack%20series%20cards), Rare",
          "Basic": "$0.42 (75)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.35 (58)",
          "Stage 2": "$0.54 (39)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.3x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "Deck Exclusives, Holo Rare",
          "Basic": "$7.27 (48)",
          "Stage 1": "$8.15 (31)",
          "Stage 2": "$9.68 (47)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "1.3x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates), Shiny Rare",
          "Basic": "$5.02 (67)",
          "Stage 1": "$4.53 (43)",
          "Stage 2": "$4.52 (10)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.90x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes), Rare",
          "Basic": "$0.27 (39)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.27 (21)",
          "Stage 2": "$0.24 (15)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.89x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "30th Celebration, Common",
          "Basic": "$0.18 (41)",
          "Stage 1": "$0.18 (18)",
          "Stage 2": "$0.16 (5)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.89x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Hidden Fates](/set/hidden%20fates) Shiny Vault, Shiny Holo Rare",
          "Basic": "$9.42 (50)",
          "Stage 1": "$16.48 (28)",
          "Stage 2": "$84.23 (6)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "8.9x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis), Holo Rare",
          "Basic": "$539.99 (4)",
          "Stage 1": "$173.90 (19)",
          "Stage 2": "$139.99 (7)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.26x"
        },
        {
          "Set and rarity": "[Unseen Forces](/set/unseen%20forces), Ultra Rare",
          "Basic": "$1,067.00 (5)",
          "Stage 1": "$240.00 (5)",
          "Stage 2": "$239.99 (5)",
          "Stage 2 vs Basic": "0.22x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Every printed Stage value with 15 or more priced cards",
      "columns": [
        "Printed Stage value",
        "Cards",
        "Median Near Mint"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Legend",
          "Cards": "22",
          "Median Near Mint": "$233.50"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Level Up",
          "Cards": "65",
          "Median Near Mint": "$97.50"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Level-Up",
          "Cards": "29",
          "Median Near Mint": "$80.00"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Mega",
          "Cards": "85",
          "Median Near Mint": "$42.21"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "VMAX",
          "Cards": "278",
          "Median Near Mint": "$7.77"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Energy",
          "Cards": "43",
          "Median Near Mint": "$6.81"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "VSTAR",
          "Cards": "135",
          "Median Near Mint": "$6.52"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "BREAK Evolution",
          "Cards": "39",
          "Median Near Mint": "$6.13"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "V-UNION",
          "Cards": "25",
          "Median Near Mint": "$5.95"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Stage 2",
          "Cards": "2,465",
          "Median Near Mint": "$4.26"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Special Energy",
          "Cards": "34",
          "Median Near Mint": "$1.60"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Basic",
          "Cards": "12,570",
          "Median Near Mint": "$1.10"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Restored",
          "Cards": "15",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.97"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Stage 1",
          "Cards": "6,370",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.88"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Tool",
          "Cards": "36",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.56"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Stadium",
          "Cards": "26",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.54"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Supporter",
          "Cards": "80",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.53"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Item",
          "Cards": "77",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.47"
        },
        {
          "Printed Stage value": "Trainer",
          "Cards": "63",
          "Median Near Mint": "$0.46"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "How much of each rung is printed at the cheap rarities",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "Share of each rung's priced cards, 21,405 cards with a printed Stage and a Near Mint quote. Rarity is the TCGplayer product rarity.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Basic, Common",
          "value": 44.2,
          "basis": "5,555 of 12,570"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 1, Common",
          "value": 8.4,
          "basis": "533 of 6,370"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 2, Common",
          "value": 0.3,
          "basis": "8 of 2,465"
        },
        {
          "label": "Basic, Common or Uncommon",
          "value": 52.4,
          "basis": "6,587 of 12,570"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 1, Common or Uncommon",
          "value": 45.1,
          "basis": "2,870 of 6,370"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 2, Common or Uncommon",
          "value": 6,
          "basis": "149 of 2,465"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The shape of each rung, not its middle",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "Share of each rung's priced cards by Near Mint quote band, 21,405 cards. Same scale as the rarity chart above.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Basic, under $1",
          "value": 48.7,
          "basis": "6,118 of 12,570"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 1, under $1",
          "value": 51.7,
          "basis": "3,294 of 6,370"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 2, under $1",
          "value": 30.8,
          "basis": "760 of 2,465"
        },
        {
          "label": "Basic, $10 or more",
          "value": 23.7,
          "basis": "2,983 of 12,570"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 1, $10 or more",
          "value": 20.3,
          "basis": "1,293 of 6,370"
        },
        {
          "label": "Stage 2, $10 or more",
          "value": 38.1,
          "basis": "938 of 2,465"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "Where the 3.9x comes from",
    "Hold the set as well and the premium is gone",
    "The eras disagree, and that is the tell"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Tables: tcgcsv_products for identity and rarity, tcgcsv_groups for the release year, condition_quotes for price, cards for the catalog join and the card page link. The Stage value is parsed out of the raw extendedData JSON in tcgcsv_products.extended, exact key 'Stage', with no case or spelling folding, which leaves 31 distinct spellings across 22,735 of 32,868 products; the other 10,133 products carry no Stage attribute and are excluded. Price is condition_quotes where condition = 'NM' and price > 0, one row per product: 22,522 of the 22,735 qualify and 213 are excluded for having no Near Mint quote, with no price at or below zero found. The three Pokemon evolution rungs are 21,405 of those, Basic 12,570, Stage 1 6,370 and Stage 2 2,465; the remaining 1,117 rows sit in 28 other Stage spellings. Rarity throughout is tcgcsv_products.rarity, the provider's product rarity, which can differ from the rarity shown on a card page; Greninja in Kalos Starter Set is Common on the provider and blank on the catalog row, for example. Quote dates run 2025-07-21 to 2026-10-11 across 132 distinct dates with no nulls, and 20,432 rows were quoted in the seven days to 2026-10-12. Medians are the upper middle value on an even sample. A paired cell is one TCGplayer group plus one provider rarity; a cell ratio is one rung's cell median divided by another's, and the published figure is the median of the cell ratios, never a ratio of pooled medians. A rung is counted dearer in a cell only when its median is strictly higher to the cent; cells whose two medians are equal to the cent are reported as level and counted on neither side, which is why the three counts at five or more sum to 287. Where one rarity is paired on its own, the cut is three or more cards at both rungs inside each set, and the set count is printed with the ratio. The rarity-standardised figures weight each rung's per-rarity medians by the rarity distribution of all 21,405 rows, dropping cells with fewer than 5 cards, which retains 99.3% to 99.8% of the weight. Release-year buckets use the TCGplayer group's published date; no row lacks one. Of the 21,405 rows, 21,052 join an English catalog row, 353 join none and zero join a Japanese one. Every figure above is printed by scripts/pokemon-evolution-stage-value-figures.mts in one run."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}