{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/pokemon-pull-rates-by-set",
  "slug": "pokemon-pull-rates-by-set",
  "title": "Pokemon Pull Rates by Set: What Is Published",
  "summary": "Of the 110 English sets sold in booster packs that we track, 31 have pull rates from a published study. Eleven studies carry them, and 24 sets borrow odds.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 10,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "31 of 110",
      "measures": "English booster-selling sets with published pull rates",
      "basis": "28.2% of the openable universe as of 2026-09-22"
    },
    {
      "value": "11",
      "measures": "distinct published studies behind every rate we use",
      "basis": "21 of the 35 sets in our model rest on just two of them"
    },
    {
      "value": "11 of 35",
      "measures": "sets whose odds were measured on that set",
      "basis": "the other 24 inherit an era baseline from a different set"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Every published study behind a rate in our pack model, 11 studies",
      "columns": [
        "Study",
        "Publisher",
        "Stated sample",
        "Confidence intervals",
        "Sets it supplies a rate to",
        "Sets resting on it alone"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Study": "Stellar Crown pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "8,000+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "15",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "10"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Lost Origin pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "8,000+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "none published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "13",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "11"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Mega Evolution pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "5,000+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "6",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "6"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Scarlet & Violet 151 pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "1,500+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "1"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Evolving Skies pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "8,000+ packs, August 2021",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Destined Rivals pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "8,000+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Prismatic Evolutions pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "1,200+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Crown Zenith pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer",
          "Stated sample": "1,900+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "none published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Paldean Fates pull rates",
          "Publisher": "PokeBeach, reporting TCGplayer data",
          "Stated sample": "1,500 packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "none published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Temporal Forces pull rates",
          "Publisher": "TCGplayer Authentication Center",
          "Stated sample": "8,000+ packs",
          "Confidence intervals": "95% published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        },
        {
          "Study": "Scarlet & Violet base pull rates",
          "Publisher": "pokemonplug, citing TCGplayer data",
          "Stated sample": "not stated",
          "Confidence intervals": "none published",
          "Sets it supplies a rate to": "1",
          "Sets resting on it alone": "0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Every set our pack model can simulate, and where its odds come from, 35 sets",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Era",
        "Odds basis",
        "Tier rates resolved",
        "Of which measured on this set"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[151](/set/151)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "5"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study (the era baseline was measured here)",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "6"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "own set study (the era baseline was measured here)",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "10"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Odds basis": "own set study (the era baseline was measured here)",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "5"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, rest from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "8",
          "Of which measured on this set": "7"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, rest from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "11",
          "Of which measured on this set": "7"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, rest from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "8",
          "Of which measured on this set": "6"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Crown Zenith](/set/crown%20zenith)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, rest from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "13",
          "Of which measured on this set": "6"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Scarlet & Violet](/set/scarlet%20%26%20violet)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, rest from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "5"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, rest from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "5"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "own set study, ACE SPEC from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "5"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paradox Rift](/set/paradox%20rift)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Shrouded Fable](/set/shrouded%20fable)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[White Flare](/set/white%20flare)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Stellar Crown",
          "Tier rates resolved": "6",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Sword & Shield](/set/sword%20%26%20shield)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Rebel Clash](/set/rebel%20clash)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Darkness Ablaze](/set/darkness%20ablaze)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Vivid Voltage](/set/vivid%20voltage)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Battle Styles](/set/battle%20styles)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chilling Reign](/set/chilling%20reign)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Brilliant Stars](/set/brilliant%20stars)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Astral Radiance](/set/astral%20radiance)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Lost Origin",
          "Tier rates resolved": "10",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Mega Evolution",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Mega Evolution",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Mega Evolution",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Mega Evolution",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Pitch Black](/set/me05%3A%20pitch%20black)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Odds basis": "inherited from Mega Evolution",
          "Tier rates resolved": "5",
          "Of which measured on this set": "0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The largest English booster-selling sets with no published pull rates, ranks 1 to 15 of 76",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Cards in catalog",
        "Era"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Cards in catalog": "271",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Unified Minds](/set/unified%20minds)",
          "Cards in catalog": "258",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)",
          "Cards in catalog": "236",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Unbroken Bonds](/set/unbroken%20bonds)",
          "Cards in catalog": "234",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Cards in catalog": "196",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis)",
          "Cards in catalog": "186",
          "Era": "e-Card"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Celestial Storm](/set/celestial%20storm)",
          "Cards in catalog": "183",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ultra Prism](/set/ultra%20prism)",
          "Cards in catalog": "173",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows)",
          "Cards in catalog": "169",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Guardians Rising](/set/guardians%20rising)",
          "Cards in catalog": "169",
          "Era": "Sun & Moon"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[BREAKthrough](/set/breakthrough)",
          "Cards in catalog": "165",
          "Era": "XY"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Primal Clash](/set/primal%20clash)",
          "Cards in catalog": "164",
          "Era": "XY"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[30th Celebration](/set/30th%20celebration)",
          "Cards in catalog": "158",
          "Era": "Mega Evolution"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Boundaries Crossed](/set/boundaries%20crossed)",
          "Cards in catalog": "153",
          "Era": "Black & White"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Supreme Victors](/set/supreme%20victors)",
          "Cards in catalog": "153",
          "Era": "Platinum"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Pull-rate coverage of the English catalog, 2026-09-22",
      "columns": [
        "Universe",
        "Sets",
        "With published odds",
        "Refused for want of a study",
        "None published"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Universe": "All English sets in the catalog",
          "Sets": "236",
          "With published odds": "34",
          "Refused for want of a study": "4",
          "None published": "198"
        },
        {
          "Universe": "English sets our sealed catalog sells boosters for",
          "Sets": "110",
          "With published odds": "31",
          "Refused for want of a study": "3",
          "None published": "76"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Confidence intervals, by era",
      "columns": [
        "Era",
        "Sets in the model",
        "Rolled tier rates with a published 95% interval"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Era": "Scarlet & Violet",
          "Sets in the model": "16",
          "Rolled tier rates with a published 95% interval": "75 of 87"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Mega Evolution",
          "Sets in the model": "6",
          "Rolled tier rates with a published 95% interval": "30 of 30"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Sword & Shield",
          "Sets in the model": "13",
          "Rolled tier rates with a published 95% interval": "7 of 101"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The nine studies",
    "Measured here, or borrowed",
    "The sets with nothing",
    "Coverage, counted properly",
    "What this study cannot show",
    "What would overturn this"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: the 236 distinct set_name values in the cards table with lang = 'en', holding 24,635 cards. The openable subset is every one of those sets for which sealed_products holds at least one priced SKU whose name contains Booster Box, Booster Pack or Booster Bundle, after stripping the sealed catalog's era prefix (the leading token before a dash or colon) and normalising both names to lowercase alphanumerics; that subset is 110 sets holding 15,525 cards. The prefix strip must handle BOTH forms the sealed catalog uses, the colon form (SWSH07:, ME05:) and the dash form (XY -, SM -); handling only the colon form drops 22 XY and Sun & Moon sets and understates the denominator as 88. Odds coverage is resolved through resolveTierOdds() in src/server/pack-sim.ts, unchanged, against src/content/pack-model.json: a set is covered when it appears in SIMULATABLE_SETS and resolveTierOdds returns at least one tier with status 'active' and a parseable per-pack probability. A set counts as measured on itself when it carries a setOverrides entry, an eraBaselineAlternatives entry, or when the era baseline's own 'set' field names it; otherwise it is inherited. The explicit refusal list is EXCLUDED_SETS in the same file, with its reasons quoted verbatim. A study is counted as distinct by its source URL, which yields eleven across the 35 sets: the three era baselines, the six set-specific overrides, and the two per-set baseline alternatives (Destined Rivals and Scarlet & Violet base) that resolveTierOdds applies through eraBaselineAlternatives. The \"sets it supplies a rate to\" column counts sets with at least one active rate from that study and therefore overlaps between studies; the \"resting on it alone\" column counts sets where one study supplies every rate, and those 35 figures do partition. Study attribution, publisher, sample size and the presence of a published confidence interval are read from the model's source and sampleSize fields and from whether the per-pack string carries a +/- term; an absent interval is reported as 'none published' and never as zero. TIER COUNTS: the \"Tier rates resolved\" column counts every tier resolveTierOdds returns as active for that set, which includes aggregate tiers the simulator never rolls (ultraRareAny on all 13 SWSH sets, and trainerGallery, rainbowRare and goldSecretRare on Crown Zenith, whose slot plan replaces them). The confidence-interval table below counts ROLLED tiers with cards in the set's pool instead, which is the population the odds-swing figure in Booster Box Expected Value is computed over. That is why this study's column sums to 99 Scarlet & Violet tier rates and 134 Sword & Shield ones while the interval table's denominators are 87 and 101. They are different counts of different things and both are stated deliberately. No rate is estimated, inferred from a neighbouring set, or carried across eras. Scripts: apps/web/scripts/sealed-e-pullrates.mts and sealed-e2-pullrates.mts. All figures and queries are in apps/web/.scratch-sealed/figures.json."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}