{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/psa-10-recent-versus-all-time", "slug": "psa-10-recent-versus-all-time", "title": "What a PSA 10 Is Selling For Right Now, and When the Median Lies", "summary": "Across the 8,862 PSA 10 cards we priced on 2026-10-11, 742 carry a trailing-window median that sits more than 50% away from the median of every sale we kept for the same card. The surprise is the direction. 732 of those 742 sit above the long-window figure and ten sit below, so the complaint everyone makes about graded medians, that they are stale and too high, is the rarer of the two faults. Some of that 73-to-1 split is the bar itself, which is not symmetric in ratio terms: on a symmetric one-and-a-half-times bar the same day splits 732 to 49.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-10-12", "readMinutes": 11, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "8.4%", "measures": "of PSA 10 cards disagree with their own long-window median by more than 50%", "basis": "742 of 8,862 cards priced on 2026-10-11" }, { "value": "7.2%", "measures": "median gap between the two medians", "basis": "same 8,862 cards; the 90th percentile is 44.2% and the 99th is 132.8%" }, { "value": "98.7%", "measures": "of the cards past the 50% bar sit above their long-window median, not below", "basis": "732 of 742; ten sit below. On a symmetric one-and-a-half-times bar it is 732 to 49" }, { "value": "597", "measures": "cards we give no recent median at all, only a last sale", "basis": "fewer than three dated sales in a year; median 94 days since that sale" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "The widest disagreements in the gated pool, 2026-10-11", "columns": [ "Card", "Set", "Recent median, 90-day window", "Long-window median", "Gap" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Mega Dragalge ex 116/083](/card/jat-683767)", "Set": "[M4: Ninja Spinner](/set/m4%3A%20ninja%20spinner)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$64.99 on 6 sales", "Long-window median": "$140.00 on 11", "Gap": "-53.6%" }, { "Card": "[Mega Zygarde ex 113/080](/card/jat-674432)", "Set": "[M3: Nihil Zero](/set/m3%3A%20nihil%20zero)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$69.00 on 16 sales", "Long-window median": "$132.99 on 43", "Gap": "-48.1%" }, { "Card": "[Acerola's Mischief 090/063](/card/jat-647237)", "Set": "[m1S: Mega Symphonia](/set/m1s%3A%20mega%20symphonia)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$63.38 on 12 sales", "Long-window median": "$110.00 on 55", "Gap": "-42.4%" }, { "Card": "[Electrike 073/063](/card/jat-623321)", "Set": "[SV9a: Heat Wave Arena](/set/sv9a%3A%20heat%20wave%20arena)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$21.08 on 5 sales", "Long-window median": "$34.99 on 10", "Gap": "-39.8%" }, { "Card": "[Ultra Ball 264/217](/card/me02.5-264)", "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$38.55 on 11 sales", "Long-window median": "$63.48 on 14", "Gap": "-39.3%" }, { "Card": "[Lillie's Determination 086/063](/card/jat-647195)", "Set": "[m1L: Mega Brave](/set/m1l%3A%20mega%20brave)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$78.77 on 18 sales", "Long-window median": "$127.50 on 59", "Gap": "-38.2%" }, { "Card": "[Dawn 106/080](/card/jat-655883)", "Set": "[M2: Inferno X](/set/m2%3A%20inferno%20x)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$34.00 on 11 sales", "Long-window median": "$55.00 on 80", "Gap": "-38.2%" }, { "Card": "[Tyrunt 070](/card/mep-070)", "Set": "[MEP Black Star Promos](/set/mep%20black%20star%20promos)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$259.99 on 53 sales", "Long-window median": "$417.49 on 76", "Gap": "-37.7%" }, { "Card": "[Bibarel GG25](/card/swsh12.5gg-GG25)", "Set": "[Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery](/set/crown%20zenith%20galarian%20gallery)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$295.00 on 11 sales", "Long-window median": "$84.99 on 39", "Gap": "+247.1%" }, { "Card": "[Ho-oh 149](/card/ecard3-149)", "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$15,000.00 on 5 sales", "Long-window median": "$4,399.50 on 18", "Gap": "+240.9%" }, { "Card": "[Victini 012/086, Master Ball Pattern](/card/enx-642634)", "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$474.99 on 6 sales", "Long-window median": "$156.50 on 21", "Gap": "+203.5%" }, { "Card": "[Leafeon EX 10](/card/g1-10)", "Set": "[Generations](/set/generations)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$1,375.00 on 6 sales", "Long-window median": "$480.00 on 24", "Gap": "+186.5%" }, { "Card": "[Charmander 98](/card/ex3-98)", "Set": "[Dragon](/set/dragon)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$7,100.00 on 11 sales", "Long-window median": "$2,520.00 on 23", "Gap": "+181.7%" }, { "Card": "[Maushold 210/091](/card/sv04.5-210)", "Set": "[Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$399.00 on 5 sales", "Long-window median": "$142.00 on 16", "Gap": "+181.0%" }, { "Card": "[Flying Pikachu 25](/card/basep-25)", "Set": "[Wizards Black Star Promos](/set/wizards%20black%20star%20promos)", "Recent median, 90-day window": "$2,051.00 on 13 sales", "Long-window median": "$750.00 on 43", "Gap": "+173.5%" } ] }, { "title": "The same measurement on three populations", "columns": [ "Population", "Cards ranked", "Past the 50% bar", "Share" ], "rows": [ { "Population": "2026-10-11, the last complete day", "Cards ranked": "8,862", "Past the 50% bar": "742", "Share": "8.4%" }, { "Population": "2026-10-12, through the 21:00:45 UTC write", "Cards ranked": "8,872", "Past the 50% bar": "751", "Share": "8.5%" }, { "Population": "Freshest row per card, 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12", "Cards ranked": "9,158", "Past the 50% bar": "785", "Share": "8.6%" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Share of PSA 10 cards whose two medians disagree by more than 50%", "unit": "%", "note": "By the window the recent figure needed. 8,862 cards priced 2026-10-11.", "points": [ { "label": "True 90-day window", "value": 9.5, "basis": "529 of 5,556 cards" }, { "label": "Widened to 180 days", "value": 8, "basis": "182 of 2,269 cards" }, { "label": "Widened to 365 days", "value": 3, "basis": "31 of 1,037 cards" } ] }, { "title": "Share past the 50% bar, by the size of the long-window median", "unit": "%", "note": "Same 8,862 cards, banded on the long-window median itself.", "points": [ { "label": "Under $25", "value": 2.7, "basis": "2 of 75 cards, a sample too thin to read" }, { "label": "$25 to $100", "value": 5.6, "basis": "219 of 3,915 cards" }, { "label": "$100 to $500", "value": 10.8, "basis": "348 of 3,234 cards" }, { "label": "$500 and up", "value": 10.6, "basis": "173 of 1,638 cards" } ] } ], "sections": [ "Where the disagreement actually lives", "The drift is real, and it is small", "Half of this comparison is not on the site yet", "Three populations, one answer", "What this measure cannot do" ], "method": [ "Source: graded_snapshots, grade 'PSA 10', read with the dated model columns recent_median, recent_n, recent_window, all_median, all_n, last_sale_price and last_sale_day, written by the hourly cron from the provider's own dated sold comps. Primary population: day bucket 20737, which is 2026-10-11, the last complete day before publication (snapshot_at 00:00:45.358 to 23:00:45.117 UTC, 24 distinct write stamps, 109,361 rows over 14,781 distinct cards at all grades, 9,667 of them PSA 10, one row per card). Exclusions on that day: 0 rows in the catalog-id keyspace, which is stale forever and is dropped on sight by requiring an all-digit card_key; 805 rows with no recent_median, being the cards with fewer than three dated sales inside a 365-day window, of which 597 carry a last sale and 208 carry nothing dated; 0 rows with a recent median and no long-window median. That leaves 8,862 cards ranked. The gap is (recent_median minus all_median) divided by all_median, and the 50% bar is HEADLINE_DIVERGENCE in packages/core/src/gradedmodel.ts, the same bar the card pages use to decide whether to print both figures. That bar is asymmetric in ratio terms, so the up and down counts either side of it are reported again against a symmetric 1.5x bar wherever the lopsidedness is named. The gated pool applies two further gates to the 8,862, recent_window = 90 and recent_n of at least 5, leaving 3,972 cards on that day, and the table of widest disagreements then removes Base Set Mewtwo by hand for the printing reason above. The 3,972 count and the splits quoted against it, 303 to 1 and 303 to 14, include Mewtwo; the hand removal is from the table only. The same gate on day 20738 holds 3,978 cards, and that is the population behind the 2026-10-12 widest discount. Every steepest and widest in this note is ranked inside the gate on the day printed beside it. Check run: all_n is at least recent_n on all 8,862 rows, so no recent sample exceeds the pool it came from. The provider's own aggregate in the median column is not a median and appears in no figure here. Second and third populations, both reported: day 20738, which is 2026-10-12, read through its last landed write at snapshot_at 1791838845358, that is 21:00:45.358 UTC (98,817 rows over 11,901 distinct cards at all grades, 9,687 of them PSA 10, 11 catalog-id keys dropped, 804 with no recent median, 8,872 ranked); and the freshest row per card_key across days 20732 to 20738 (10,045 distinct PSA 10 cards, 11 catalog-id keys dropped leaving 10,034, 876 with no recent median, 9,158 ranked). A day 20738 figure is pinned to that epoch because the 21:00:45.358 write lands 4,986 rows under a single timestamp, so a cutoff inside it is not a cutoff; immediately before it the day held 93,831 rows over 11,064 cards. Pool-drift figures compare day 20732 with day 20738 on the 8,835 cards carrying a long-window median on both. Medians are the mean of the two middle values on an even sample, and every published median here is unchanged under the nearest-rank convention. Every query filtered on day, which uses graded_snap_day_idx; no LIKE predicate and no api_cache read was involved. No PSA population table was joined, so no gem rate is read here, as a zero or otherwise." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }