{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/psa-changed-its-mind-felt-hat",
  "slug": "psa-changed-its-mind-felt-hat",
  "title": "PSA Changed Its Mind About the Felt Hat: The Van Gogh Pikachu's Gem Rate Fell by Half",
  "summary": "Across its whole registry to August 2026, Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat gemmed 42.9% of the time. Across its most recent 736 submissions, 21.9%. Same card, same sleeve-to-slab pipeline, half the tens. Something changed, and it was not the card.",
  "section": "Data forensics",
  "published": "2026-08-28",
  "readMinutes": 5,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "42.9%",
      "measures": "lifetime gem rate",
      "basis": "the registry through August 2, 2026"
    },
    {
      "value": "21.9%",
      "measures": "recent submissions",
      "basis": "the last 736 slabs in our window"
    },
    {
      "value": "-21.0pts",
      "measures": "the drift",
      "basis": "third steepest of the 99-card cohort"
    },
    {
      "value": "736",
      "measures": "new slabs in the window",
      "basis": "no small-sample excuse"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Ruling out the innocent explanations"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Gem rates from moonstone daily PSA registry snapshots, read August 28, 2026: lifetime = gem/total at window start; recent = gem-delta over total-delta across a 200+-slab window. The registry snapshot is not daily on every card, so the window runs between the first and last snapshots we hold on or before that read, which for this card is August 2 to August 20, 2026 (736 added slabs) and for the [Paldean Fates Charizard ex](/card/sv04.5-234) the same two dates (285 slabs). The drift ranking is over the 99-card cohort of the companion study, whose mean drift is -3.34 points. Cohort context and method caveats in the [Gem Rate Drift study](/articles/the-gem-rate-drift). Attribution between submitter mix and grading standards is discussed, not asserted. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}