{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/psa-grade-ladder-population-economics",
  "slug": "psa-grade-ladder-population-economics",
  "title": "The Grade Ladder: What PSA Populations Actually Say About Price",
  "summary": "We priced 520 cards across eight eras against the PSA registry itself, how a 10 relates to a 9, a 9 to an 8, and where the population data says a graded card is trading away from fair value.",
  "section": "Market Structure",
  "published": "2026-07-25",
  "readMinutes": 11,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "520",
      "measures": "cards priced",
      "basis": "8 eras, 1999–2025"
    },
    {
      "value": "286",
      "measures": "PSA 10/9 pairs",
      "basis": "≥4 sales each side; 17 anomalies excluded"
    },
    {
      "value": "R² 0.46",
      "measures": "population → premium",
      "basis": "one-factor power law, n=278"
    },
    {
      "value": "1-in-794",
      "measures": "hardest gem on a multi-ten line",
      "basis": "Lugia Neo Genesis, 15 tens from 11,911"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The full ladder by era (median multiples)",
      "columns": [
        "Era",
        "10 ÷ 9",
        "9 ÷ 8"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Era": "WotC 1999–2003",
          "10 ÷ 9": "5.20×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "1.54×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "EX 2003–2007",
          "10 ÷ 9": "7.22×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "1.80×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "DP–HGSS 2007–2011",
          "10 ÷ 9": "8.82×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "2.14×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "BW 2011–2014",
          "10 ÷ 9": "6.75×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "1.93×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "XY 2014–2017",
          "10 ÷ 9": "7.08×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "2.25×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "SM 2017–2019",
          "10 ÷ 9": "4.15×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "1.34×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "SWSH 2020–2022",
          "10 ÷ 9": "2.59×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "1.22×"
        },
        {
          "Era": "SV 2023–2025",
          "10 ÷ 9": "3.66×",
          "9 ÷ 8": "1.18×"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The discrepancy screen: PSA 9 trading below pop-implied fair (July 2026)",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "PSA 10",
        "PSA 9",
        "Fair 9",
        "Gap",
        "Pop 10 / Pop 9"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Gyarados EX](/card/xy9-123) · [BREAKpoint](/set/breakpoint)",
          "PSA 10": "$3,500",
          "PSA 9": "$248",
          "Fair 9": "$703",
          "Gap": "−65%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "1,472 / 2,782"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Golem](/card/ecard3-148) · [Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "PSA 10": "$7,775",
          "PSA 9": "$675",
          "Fair 9": "$1,726",
          "Gap": "−61%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "257 / 392"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Maushold](/card/sv02-226) · [Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "PSA 10": "$1,900",
          "PSA 9": "$111",
          "Fair 9": "$273",
          "Gap": "−59%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "392 / 1,510"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Arceus & Dialga & Palkia GX](/card/sm12-221) · [Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "PSA 10": "$4,575",
          "PSA 9": "$476",
          "Fair 9": "$1,164",
          "Gap": "−59%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "1,660 / 1,895"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon EX](/card/xy10-119) · [Fates Collide](/set/fates%20collide)",
          "PSA 10": "$4,201",
          "PSA 9": "$344",
          "Fair 9": "$753",
          "Gap": "−54%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "706 / 1,701"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[M Rayquaza EX](/card/xy6-105) · [Roaring Skies](/set/roaring%20skies)",
          "PSA 10": "$25,000",
          "PSA 9": "$1,411",
          "Fair 9": "$3,062",
          "Gap": "−54%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "116 / 629"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Charmander · SVP Promos",
          "PSA 10": "$5,600",
          "PSA 9": "$326",
          "Fair 9": "$706",
          "Gap": "−54%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "680 / 3,465"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon & Darkrai GX](/card/smp-SM241) · SM Promos",
          "PSA 10": "$6,885",
          "PSA 9": "$386",
          "Fair 9": "$835",
          "Gap": "−54%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "1,133 / 6,270"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Mew · XY Black Star Promos",
          "PSA 10": "$9,000",
          "PSA 9": "$472",
          "Fair 9": "$1,022",
          "Gap": "−54%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "160 / 1,020"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Pikachu EX · XY Black Star Promos",
          "PSA 10": "$8,000",
          "PSA 9": "$505",
          "Fair 9": "$1,092",
          "Gap": "−54%",
          "Pop 10 / Pop 9": "81 / 349"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Lowest PSA 10 rates in this 520-card sample (registry lines ≥300 slabs)",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Line",
        "Gem odds",
        "Total pop",
        "PSA 10s"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Rayquaza C](/card/dpp-DP47) · DP Promos",
          "Line": "Holofoil",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-1,196",
          "Total pop": "1,196",
          "PSA 10s": "1"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Blissey](/card/neo3-2) · [Neo Revelation](/set/neo%20revelation)",
          "Line": "Holo",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-1,011",
          "Total pop": "1,011",
          "PSA 10s": "1"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lugia](/card/neo1-9) · [Neo Genesis](/set/neo%20genesis)",
          "Line": "Holo",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-794",
          "Total pop": "11,911",
          "PSA 10s": "15"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Ho-Oh ex](/card/pop3-17) · [POP Series 3](/set/pop%20series%203)",
          "Line": "Non-holo",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-695",
          "Total pop": "695",
          "PSA 10s": "1"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Dialga](/card/xyp-XY77) · XY Promos",
          "Line": "Holofoil",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-315",
          "Total pop": "946",
          "PSA 10s": "3"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Gyarados · XY Promos",
          "Line": "Holofoil",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-313",
          "Total pop": "625",
          "PSA 10s": "2"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Rayquaza EX · XY Promos",
          "Line": "Holofoil",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-295",
          "Total pop": "2,068",
          "PSA 10s": "7"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Dragonite](/card/base3-4) · [Fossil](/set/fossil)",
          "Line": "Holo",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-274",
          "Total pop": "16,464",
          "PSA 10s": "60"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Sabrina's Gengar](/card/gym1-14) · [Gym Heroes](/set/gym%20heroes)",
          "Line": "Holo",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-252",
          "Total pop": "8,566",
          "PSA 10s": "34"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/base1-4) · [Base Set](/set/base%20set)",
          "Line": "Holo",
          "Gem odds": "1-in-251",
          "Total pop": "14,555",
          "PSA 10s": "58"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "PSA 10 price ÷ PSA 9 price, median by era",
      "unit": "×",
      "note": "286 cards with ≥4 recorded sales at both grades, July 2026",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "DP–HGSS 2007–11",
          "value": 8.82,
          "basis": "n=18"
        },
        {
          "label": "EX era 2003–07",
          "value": 7.22,
          "basis": "n=34"
        },
        {
          "label": "XY 2014–17",
          "value": 7.08,
          "basis": "n=36"
        },
        {
          "label": "BW 2011–14",
          "value": 6.75,
          "basis": "n=8"
        },
        {
          "label": "WotC 1999–2003",
          "value": 5.2,
          "basis": "n=27"
        },
        {
          "label": "SM 2017–19",
          "value": 4.15,
          "basis": "n=47"
        },
        {
          "label": "SV 2023–25",
          "value": 3.66,
          "basis": "n=58"
        },
        {
          "label": "SWSH 2020–22",
          "value": 2.59,
          "basis": "n=58"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Gem premium by PSA 10 population",
      "unit": "×",
      "note": "Quintiles of PSA 10 registry population, median 10÷9 price multiple in each",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Pop 6–83",
          "value": 7.66,
          "basis": "median P10 $6,970"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pop 85–299",
          "value": 6.07,
          "basis": "median P10 $7,500"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pop 300–1.5k",
          "value": 5.55,
          "basis": "median P10 $1,521"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pop 1.5k–5.7k",
          "value": 3.47,
          "basis": "median P10 $708"
        },
        {
          "label": "Pop 5.9k–49.5k",
          "value": 2.46,
          "basis": "median P10 $586"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Median gem rate by era and printing",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "Share of each card's total PSA population graded 10, cards with ≥300 total pop",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "SWSH holo 2020–22",
          "value": 55,
          "basis": "n=56"
        },
        {
          "label": "SM holo 2017–19",
          "value": 39.8,
          "basis": "n=47"
        },
        {
          "label": "SV holo 2023–25",
          "value": 34.1,
          "basis": "n=56"
        },
        {
          "label": "WotC unlimited holo",
          "value": 11.1,
          "basis": "n=11"
        },
        {
          "label": "XY holo 2014–17",
          "value": 9.9,
          "basis": "n=31"
        },
        {
          "label": "BW holo 2011–14",
          "value": 5.9,
          "basis": "n=7"
        },
        {
          "label": "EX-era holo 2003–07",
          "value": 4.9,
          "basis": "n=34"
        },
        {
          "label": "WotC 1st Edition holo",
          "value": 4.2,
          "basis": "n=14"
        },
        {
          "label": "DP–HGSS holo 2007–11",
          "value": 3.1,
          "basis": "n=17"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "180-day raw-market price change by gem-rate quartile",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "Median change in raw card market price, Jan–Jul 2026, raw market momentum, not graded returns",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "Easiest gems (49–78%)",
          "value": 39.1,
          "basis": "n=69"
        },
        {
          "label": "29–49% gem rate",
          "value": 34.5,
          "basis": "n=69"
        },
        {
          "label": "6.5–29% gem rate",
          "value": 31.2,
          "basis": "n=69"
        },
        {
          "label": "Hardest gems (0.7–6.3%)",
          "value": 20.2,
          "basis": "n=69"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "A 10 is worth 2.5× to 9× a 9, era decides",
    "Scarcity is priced, measurably",
    "Where PSA 9s are trading away from fair",
    "The hardest 10s in the hobby",
    "Gem scarcity has not been a momentum trade"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: 520 cards sampled across eight English-language eras (top-of-market plus stride-sampled mid-tier per era), priced from median recorded eBay sale prices per PSA grade with stated sample sizes, as of July 2026. Populations are the provider's pass-through of the PSA registry, keyed by TCGplayer product, as of the same date. That key is a PRODUCT line, not a printing: several printings of one card can share one line, so no figure here should be read as a 1st Edition population. The Base Set Charizard line in the difficulty table is the clearest case, 14,555 slabs and 58 tens in July, and the same line was remapped in September to 105,145 slabs and 489 tens, which is the collision documented in [The Most Graded Cards in Pokemon](/articles/the-most-graded-cards-in-pokemon). The difficulty table is also the lowest gem rate WITHIN this 520-card sample, not the lowest on the registry: a full-registry sweep puts at least fifteen further lines of 300 slabs or more between its fourth and fifth rows. 286 cards had ≥4 recorded sales at both PSA 10 and PSA 9; 17 additional cards showed grade-inverted or >40× medians and were excluded as comp-matching artifacts rather than smoothed. The fair-value fit is a one-factor log-log regression of the 10÷9 price ratio on the 9÷10 population ratio (n=278, both pops ≥20); screen entries additionally require ≥10 sales at both grades. The 180-day momentum series measures raw (ungraded) market prices, per-grade price history is not yet deep enough to measure graded returns directly; moonstone records daily graded snapshots to close that gap. Figures update continuously on linked product pages and will drift from the captured values. Nothing here is financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}