{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/set-index-vs-its-chase-cards",
  "slug": "set-index-vs-its-chase-cards",
  "title": "Is a Pokémon Set Index Just Its Chase Cards?",
  "summary": "The top five cards hold 57.2% of a set's value but carried only 45.6% of its value change. Across 41 fixed baskets, 94.9% of cards moved with the set.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "57.2%",
      "measures": "median share of set value held by the top five cards",
      "basis": "at the window open, 41 baskets"
    },
    {
      "value": "45.6%",
      "measures": "median share of the value CHANGE those same five carried",
      "basis": "over the same window"
    },
    {
      "value": "94.9%",
      "measures": "median share of a basket's cards that rose",
      "basis": "the move is broad, not narrow"
    },
    {
      "value": "32 of 41",
      "measures": "sets where the top five carried less of the move than of the level",
      "basis": "concentration falls when prices move"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Where a set's move actually came from, selected baskets",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Cards in basket",
        "Typical card",
        "Set index",
        "Top-5 share of value",
        "Top-5 share of the move"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Cards in basket": "114",
          "Typical card": "+48.7%",
          "Set index": "+40.4%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "63.8%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "40.5%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chilling Reign](/set/chilling%20reign)",
          "Cards in basket": "111",
          "Typical card": "+39.1%",
          "Set index": "+31.1%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "49.4%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "30.4%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Cards in basket": "94",
          "Typical card": "+101.6%",
          "Set index": "+119.6%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "33.3%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "32.2%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Hidden Fates Shiny Vault](/set/hidden%20fates%3A%20shiny%20vault)",
          "Cards in basket": "94",
          "Typical card": "+101.0%",
          "Set index": "+82.8%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "53.3%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "39.3%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Unbroken Bonds](/set/unbroken%20bonds)",
          "Cards in basket": "85",
          "Typical card": "+141.1%",
          "Set index": "+120.8%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "43.9%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "34.1%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)",
          "Cards in basket": "79",
          "Typical card": "+97.7%",
          "Set index": "+135.2%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "39.9%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "33.2%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Cards in basket": "77",
          "Typical card": "+45.1%",
          "Set index": "+35.9%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "83.5%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "72.0%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Cards in basket": "70",
          "Typical card": "+38.6%",
          "Set index": "+27.8%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "83.4%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "84.2%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Cards in basket": "68",
          "Typical card": "+97.5%",
          "Set index": "+172.7%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "48.2%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "55.6%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Generations](/set/generations)",
          "Cards in basket": "65",
          "Typical card": "+163.5%",
          "Set index": "+148.4%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "51.9%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "34.8%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Celebrations](/set/celebrations)",
          "Cards in basket": "23",
          "Typical card": "+92.9%",
          "Set index": "+105.9%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "89.1%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "82.4%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Shining Legends](/set/shining%20legends)",
          "Cards in basket": "27",
          "Typical card": "+91.7%",
          "Set index": "+150.8%",
          "Top-5 share of value": "82.2%",
          "Top-5 share of the move": "86.2%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The widest expansion gaps between the typical card and the set index: five above, six below",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Cards",
        "Typical card",
        "Set index",
        "Gap"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Hidden Fates](/set/hidden%20fates)",
          "Cards": "17",
          "Typical card": "+118.4%",
          "Set index": "+84.6%",
          "Gap": "+33.8 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ultra Prism](/set/ultra%20prism)",
          "Cards": "62",
          "Typical card": "+78.1%",
          "Set index": "+50.3%",
          "Gap": "+27.8 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Celestial Storm](/set/celestial%20storm)",
          "Cards": "62",
          "Typical card": "+116.0%",
          "Set index": "+89.1%",
          "Gap": "+26.9 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Unbroken Bonds](/set/unbroken%20bonds)",
          "Cards": "85",
          "Typical card": "+141.1%",
          "Set index": "+120.8%",
          "Gap": "+20.3 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Hidden Fates Shiny Vault](/set/hidden%20fates%3A%20shiny%20vault)",
          "Cards": "94",
          "Typical card": "+101.0%",
          "Set index": "+82.8%",
          "Gap": "+18.2 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder)",
          "Cards": "79",
          "Typical card": "+97.7%",
          "Set index": "+135.2%",
          "Gap": "-37.5 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Dragon Majesty](/set/dragon%20majesty)",
          "Cards": "35",
          "Typical card": "+61.7%",
          "Set index": "+100.0%",
          "Gap": "-38.3 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Steam Siege](/set/steam%20siege)",
          "Cards": "44",
          "Typical card": "+68.4%",
          "Set index": "+112.4%",
          "Gap": "-44.0 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[EX Power Keepers](/set/ex%20power%20keepers)",
          "Cards": "25",
          "Typical card": "+115.0%",
          "Set index": "+170.8%",
          "Gap": "-55.8 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Shining Legends](/set/shining%20legends)",
          "Cards": "27",
          "Typical card": "+91.7%",
          "Set index": "+150.8%",
          "Gap": "-59.1 points"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Cards": "68",
          "Typical card": "+97.5%",
          "Set index": "+172.7%",
          "Gap": "-75.3 points"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The eight expansions whose single biggest contributor carried the most of the move",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Card",
        "Card move",
        "Share of basket value",
        "Share of the basket's move"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Celebrations](/set/celebrations)",
          "Card": "[Mew](/card/cel25-25)",
          "Card move": "+81.3%",
          "Share of basket value": "71.4%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "54.8%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Shining Legends](/set/shining%20legends)",
          "Card": "[Mewtwo GX](/card/sm3.5-78)",
          "Card move": "+144.8%",
          "Share of basket value": "54.2%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "52.1%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Card": "[Giratina V](/card/swsh11-186)",
          "Card move": "+22.1%",
          "Share of basket value": "65.0%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "51.7%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Card": "[Gengar VMAX](/card/swsh8-271)",
          "Card move": "+38.8%",
          "Share of basket value": "44.6%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "48.3%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows)",
          "Card": "[Charizard GX](/card/sm3-150)",
          "Card move": "+85.5%",
          "Share of basket value": "43.4%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "46.0%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Sun and Moon](/set/sm%20base%20set)",
          "Card": "[Umbreon GX](/card/sm1-154)",
          "Card move": "+175.3%",
          "Share of basket value": "12.0%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "38.2%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)",
          "Card": "[Gengar and Mimikyu GX](/card/sm9-165)",
          "Card move": "+266.1%",
          "Share of basket value": "19.9%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "30.6%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Steam Siege](/set/steam%20siege)",
          "Card": "[Gardevoir EX](/card/xy11-116)",
          "Card move": "+147.5%",
          "Share of basket value": "22.6%",
          "Share of the basket's move": "29.7%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "How a fixed basket is built",
    "The chase premium, measured both ways",
    "What would overturn this",
    "What this study cannot show"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Population: English cards with a `ppthist:` weekly price series whose first reading falls on or before 2025-02-10 and whose last falls on or after 2026-09-01, joined to sets through `cards.set_name`, restricted to sets holding at least ten such cards, and deduplicated to one catalog row per TCGplayer product id: 2,494 cards in 41 sets. Constituents are frozen at each card's first reading on or after 2025-02-10 and closed at its last recorded reading. The value-weighted index is the sum of closing prices over the sum of opening prices. The equal-weighted index is the median of the per-card ratios, upper middle on even samples. Top-5 membership is by opening price, with ties broken by catalog id so the choice is reproducible; one basket, the SM Lycanroc trainer kit, has two twelve-cent commons tied at the fifth slot, and which one is taken moves its share of the move by one point and the 41-basket median with it. Share of the move is the five cards' summed dollar change over the basket's total dollar change, so it is undefined for a basket with no net change and unbounded for a basket with a small one; medians are used throughout for that reason. Prices are TCGplayer market asks for the flagship printing. Set-level concentration measured as a one-day cross section across a much wider population is in [What 56,000 Cards Say About How Sets Hold Value](/articles/what-56000-cards-say-about-set-design); this study measures concentration of the CHANGE, which is a different quantity. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}