{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/sir-vs-ir-scarcity-tax",
  "slug": "sir-vs-ir-scarcity-tax",
  "title": "The Scarcity Tax: Three Years of SIR vs IR Returns",
  "summary": "Everyone assumes Special Illustration Rares outperform because they're rarer. We priced 403 of them across fourteen Scarlet & Violet sets through real TCGplayer history. The rarer card lost. Badly. Scarcity turns out to be something you pre-pay for, not something you earn.",
  "section": "Investment research",
  "published": "2026-08-05",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "+76%",
      "measures": "median IR return over the measured window",
      "basis": "250 Illustration Rares, 14 sets"
    },
    {
      "value": "−7%",
      "measures": "median SIR return over the measured window",
      "basis": "153 Special Illustration Rares"
    },
    {
      "value": "+89% vs +24%",
      "measures": "matched 12-month windows",
      "basis": "the gap survives the age control"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Median return to August 2026, from post-launch settle or January 27, 2025, whichever is later · ten of the fourteen sets, see the note below",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "IR median",
        "IR % positive",
        "SIR median",
        "SIR % positive"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[SV01 Base](/set/scarlet%20%26%20violet) (2023)",
          "IR median": "+120%",
          "IR % positive": "100%",
          "SIR median": "+40%",
          "SIR % positive": "70%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "IR median": "+110%",
          "IR % positive": "100%",
          "SIR median": "+59%",
          "SIR % positive": "87%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[151](/set/151)",
          "IR median": "+82%",
          "IR % positive": "100%",
          "SIR median": "+39%",
          "SIR % positive": "71%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paradox Rift](/set/paradox%20rift)",
          "IR median": "+71%",
          "IR % positive": "100%",
          "SIR median": "−5%",
          "SIR % positive": "47%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)",
          "IR median": "+121%",
          "IR % positive": "100%",
          "SIR median": "+7%",
          "SIR % positive": "60%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "IR median": "+99%",
          "IR % positive": "95%",
          "SIR median": "+1%",
          "SIR % positive": "55%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)",
          "IR median": "+98%",
          "IR % positive": "100%",
          "SIR median": "−17%",
          "SIR % positive": "33%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)",
          "IR median": "+2%",
          "IR % positive": "52%",
          "SIR median": "−46%",
          "SIR % positive": "9%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "IR median": "—",
          "IR % positive": "—",
          "SIR median": "−42%",
          "SIR % positive": "3%"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "IR median": "+12%",
          "IR % positive": "55%",
          "SIR median": "−26%",
          "SIR % positive": "0%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Median return over the measured window, matched window-start price bands",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "the SIR discount is not a price-level artifact; no IR band above $60 clears the minimum sample",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "$1–20 · IR",
          "value": 80,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "$1–20 · SIR",
          "value": 16,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "$20–60 · IR",
          "value": 61,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "$20–60 · SIR",
          "value": -17,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "$60+ · SIR",
          "value": -23,
          "basis": null
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "The rarer card underperformed in every mature set",
    "It's not just expensive cards mean-reverting",
    "Scarcity is priced at the moment of maximum attention"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: every card with rarity 'Illustration Rare' or 'Special Illustration Rare' in the fourteen main English Scarlet & Violet-era expansions (promo sets excluded), 403 cards with usable history. Prices are TCGplayer weekly market closes, and those asks are the measurement; no sold comps are used. 'Settle' is the first weekly close at or after release + 90 days, which removes launch-spike distortion; sets younger than settle + 6 months (Black Bolt, White Flare) are excluded. Our weekly history begins January 27, 2025, so for any set whose settle date falls before that, the window starts at the first recorded week instead and the row is a since-January-2025 return, not a since-settle return. Seven of the ten sets in the table are in that position, and the callout above names them; the price bands are banded on the window-start price for the same reason. The 12-month column compares each card's price today against 365 days ago and is the age control across sets. Medians are used throughout; per-card returns above are spot-checkable on each card's page. No survivorship trimming inside a reported set: every card with history is counted, including every loser. Four mature sets in the universe are absent from the per-set table and are named in the callout."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}