{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/special-delivery-charizard-value", "slug": "special-delivery-charizard-value", "title": "Special Delivery Charizard Value: a 14% Gem Rate", "summary": "SWSH075 asks $208.31 and its PSA 10 sells for $1,311.93. Of 32,567 submissions only 4,546 came back tens, and the last 474 slabs returned twelve.", "section": "Card study", "published": "2026-09-23", "readMinutes": 9, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "13.96%", "measures": "lifetime gem rate, 4,546 tens of 32,567", "basis": "read September 22 2026, on a line proved unshared" }, { "value": "2.53%", "measures": "of the last 474 slabs came back a ten", "basis": "twelve tens, over 32 recorded days" }, { "value": "$1,311.93", "measures": "PSA 10 sold median on 98 verified sales", "basis": "against a $208.31 raw ask, a 6.30x multiple" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Special Delivery Charizard SWSH075 graded ladder, read September 23 2026", "columns": [ "Grade", "Sold median", "Verified sales", "Multiple of the raw ask" ], "rows": [ { "Grade": "PSA 10", "Sold median": "$1,311.93", "Verified sales": "98", "Multiple of the raw ask": "6.30x" }, { "Grade": "BGS 9.5", "Sold median": "$649.50", "Verified sales": "17", "Multiple of the raw ask": "3.12x" }, { "Grade": "CGC 10", "Sold median": "$573.47", "Verified sales": "24", "Multiple of the raw ask": "2.75x" }, { "Grade": "CGC 9.5", "Sold median": "$320.27", "Verified sales": "10", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.54x" }, { "Grade": "PSA 9", "Sold median": "$249.75", "Verified sales": "251", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.20x" }, { "Grade": "BGS 9", "Sold median": "$217.88", "Verified sales": "18", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.05x" }, { "Grade": "CGC 9", "Sold median": "$206.80", "Verified sales": "35", "Multiple of the raw ask": "0.99x" }, { "Grade": "Raw (ask, not a sale)", "Sold median": "$208.31", "Verified sales": "n/a", "Multiple of the raw ask": "1.00x" } ] }, { "title": "The ten lowest English gem rates on a registry of 10,000 or more, and where SWSH075 sits", "columns": [ "Rank", "Card", "Set", "Registry", "Gem rate" ], "rows": [ { "Rank": "1", "Card": "[Lugia](/card/neo1-9)", "Set": "Neo Genesis", "Registry": "12,373", "Gem rate": "0.12%" }, { "Rank": "2", "Card": "[Vaporeon](/card/base2-12)", "Set": "[Jungle](/set/jungle)", "Registry": "16,649", "Gem rate": "0.21%" }, { "Rank": "3", "Card": "[Kangaskhan](/card/base2-5)", "Set": "[Jungle](/set/jungle)", "Registry": "10,400", "Gem rate": "0.28%" }, { "Rank": "4", "Card": "[Charizard](/card/base4-4)", "Set": "[Base Set 2](/set/base%20set%202)", "Registry": "24,577", "Gem rate": "0.28%" }, { "Rank": "5", "Card": "[Eevee](/card/basep-11)", "Set": "Wizards Black Star Promos", "Registry": "10,843", "Gem rate": "0.29%" }, { "Rank": "6", "Card": "[Dragonite](/card/base3-4)", "Set": "[Fossil](/set/fossil)", "Registry": "17,023", "Gem rate": "0.35%" }, { "Rank": "7", "Card": "[Gengar](/card/base3-5)", "Set": "[Fossil](/set/fossil)", "Registry": "14,203", "Gem rate": "0.36%" }, { "Rank": "8", "Card": "[Lapras](/card/base3-10)", "Set": "[Fossil](/set/fossil)", "Registry": "13,535", "Gem rate": "0.38%" }, { "Rank": "9", "Card": "[Charizard](/card/base1-4)", "Set": "[Base Set](/set/base%20set)", "Registry": "105,585", "Gem rate": "0.46%" }, { "Rank": "10", "Card": "[Blastoise](/card/base4-2)", "Set": "[Base Set 2](/set/base%20set%202)", "Registry": "12,054", "Gem rate": "0.51%" }, { "Rank": "45", "Card": "[Special Delivery Charizard](/card/swshp-SWSH075)", "Set": "SWSH Black Star Promos", "Registry": "32,567", "Gem rate": "13.96%" } ] }, { "title": "Marginal against lifetime gem rate, this card and the cohort that supports the measurement", "columns": [ "Population", "N", "Median lifetime rate", "Median marginal rate", "Share where marginal fell" ], "rows": [ { "Population": "Cohort members with 2+ readings and 40+ slabs added", "N": "1,330", "Median lifetime rate": "56.5%", "Median marginal rate": "53.3%", "Share where marginal fell": "70.0%" }, { "Population": "Special Delivery Charizard SWSH075", "N": "1", "Median lifetime rate": "13.96%", "Median marginal rate": "2.53%", "Share where marginal fell": "n/a" } ] }, { "title": "Special Delivery Charizard against the 5,879-product graded-ladder cohort", "columns": [ "Measure", "This card", "Cohort median", "Percentile", "Rank" ], "rows": [ { "Measure": "PSA registry line", "This card": "32,567", "Cohort median": "822", "Percentile": "98.7", "Rank": "79 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "Raw ask", "This card": "$208.31", "Cohort median": "$18.93", "Percentile": "93.7", "Rank": "369 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "Verified PSA 10 sales", "This card": "98", "Cohort median": "14", "Percentile": "86.1", "Rank": "814 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "PSA 10 premium", "This card": "6.30x", "Cohort median": "12.35x", "Percentile": "29.0", "Rank": "4,174 of 5,879" }, { "Measure": "Gem rate", "This card": "13.96%", "Cohort median": "44.4%", "Percentile": "11.4", "Rank": "5,206 of 5,879" } ] }, { "title": "The Special Delivery trio, raw asks and graded tape, September 23 2026", "columns": [ "Card", "Number", "Raw ask", "PSA 10 sold", "Verified sales", "Premium", "Registry" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Special Delivery Bidoof](/card/swshp-SWSH177)", "Number": "SWSH177/307", "Raw ask": "$558.05", "PSA 10 sold": "$3,150.00", "Verified sales": "35", "Premium": "5.64x", "Registry": "withheld, line re-pointed" }, { "Card": "[Special Delivery Pikachu](/card/swshp-SWSH074)", "Number": "SWSH074/307", "Raw ask": "$461.25", "PSA 10 sold": "$2,500.00", "Verified sales": "41", "Premium": "5.42x", "Registry": "withheld, line re-pointed" }, { "Card": "[Special Delivery Charizard](/card/swshp-SWSH075)", "Number": "SWSH075/307", "Raw ask": "$208.31", "PSA 10 sold": "$1,311.93", "Verified sales": "98", "Premium": "6.30x", "Registry": "32,567" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "The ladder", "How hard is 13.96%, actually", "The last 474 slabs", "Where it sits in the catalog", "One name, one card", "What the two tapes did", "Proving the registry line belongs to this card", "What this study cannot show", "What would overturn this" ], "method": [ "Sources: the `cards` catalog, `price_history`, `graded_snapshots` and `population_snapshots` in production, read on day 20719, September 23 2026. The card is resolved by NAME AND NUMBER: Special Delivery Charizard, number SWSH075, set SWSH Black Star Promos, catalog id swshp-SWSH075, TCGplayer product id 282259. A folded same-name sweep across all 62,388 products returns exactly one row, so this card has no confusable printing. RAW is an ASK, the day-20719 `price_history` reading. GRADED figures are SOLD medians over verified completed sales with the sale count beside them, latest `graded_snapshots` row per grade across both keyspaces with the fresher row winning; the product-id keyspace is fresher at every grade here. REGISTRY is `population_snapshots`, latest reading per key, September 22 2026 for this card; the latest day differs per card across this series. Gem rates pass `gemRateIsTrustworthy()`. Line sharing is tested by `sharedRegistryKeys()` over all 24,385 population keys (883 flagged, 788 products affected, this card not among them) and by the grade-by-grade pooling ratio described below. A registry series is also cut by `publishableRegistry()`, which withholds a figure when the line's identity changed and the new line carries only one reading; that rule is what withholds the Special Delivery Pikachu and Bidoof above. Two assertions run over the graded rows this series prints, and they do not cover the same rows. STALENESS: on every product this module prints a graded figure for, and after the fresher-keyspace rule, any median dated before day 20695, the first day of the current daily tape, is dropped, because the never-refreshed catalog-id keyspace holds rows old enough to invert against their own neighbouring grade. That assertion runs on all 258 graded rows the 66 products this module links carry, at every grade and every grader, and removes exactly one, a CGC 10 dated day 20694 on a card whose graded figures are not printed here, leaving 257. The cohort below is built WITHOUT that gate: applied across the whole catalog it drops nine PSA 10 medians, leaving 8,684 products with a PSA 10 median on two or more sales and a cohort of 5,871, 4,183 English and 1,688 Japanese, and no rank printed in this series moves by more than seven places. POOLING RATIO: recorded sales at a grade divided by the registry count at that grade. This is NOT an impossibility test, and calling it one would be wrong: `graded_snapshots` counts SALES and one slab can sell more than once, so a ratio above 1 is evidence that a graded key is pooling another product, not a physical contradiction. The declared bar is 1.0. `population_snapshots` records a per-grade count at PSA 10 and PSA 9 only, so the ratio is computable on 114 of those 257 rows and on no BGS or CGC row at all; the highest of the 114 is 0.94, 29 PSA 10 sales against the 31 tens on the Wizards-era Eevee's line, and only three exceed 0.5. THE COHORT: 62,388 products after deduplicating 63,600 catalog rows on the TCGplayer product id; 5,879 carry an ask, a PSA 10 median on two or more verified sales, a trustworthy gem rate and an unshared registry line. THE DEEP-REGISTRY POPULATION is the 522 of those products, without the ask and comp gates, whose registry holds 10,000 or more slabs, 298 of them English; ranks are ascending by gem rate with ties broken on the product key. THE MARGINAL-RATE POPULATION is the 1,330 cohort members with two or more publishable registry readings, 40 or more slabs added between the first and last, and a nonzero gem count on the first; the marginal rate is tens added divided by slabs added over that span. Six further rows are dropped because their tens added fall outside zero to slabs added, which is a line contradicting itself inside its own publishable segment rather than a rate; without that rule the population is 1,336 and this card ranks 131st rather than 126th. The Charizard ranking recomputed here uses English priced products whose name contains Charizard and no ampersand and which carry a PSA 10 sold median, 83 products on day 20719; the published [Charizard premium ranking](/articles/charizard-grading-premium-ranked) used a canonical single-species matcher on day 20718 and reported 82, and both rules are stated so a recompute can pick either. Percentile is the share of the cohort strictly below this card's value; medians are upper-middle on even samples. The weekly per-card series is `ppthist:282259`, first reading January 27 2025, last September 22 2026. Not financial advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }