{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/summer-dip-audit",
  "slug": "summer-dip-audit",
  "title": "The Summer Dip on Trial: What the Data Actually Shows",
  "summary": "Collectors talk about the summer dip like a law of nature: prices sag in June, buy the discount, thank yourself in December. We put the folklore against 190 set histories and a hundred tracked cards. The dip exists. It just isn't what anyone thinks it is.",
  "section": "Market research",
  "published": "2026-08-05",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "+6.6%",
      "measures": "median tracked-card move, summer 2026",
      "basis": "May 31 to Aug 4 · 88 cards $5+"
    },
    {
      "value": "26 of 88",
      "measures": "cards actually down this summer",
      "basis": "the 'dip' is a minority experience"
    },
    {
      "value": "+0.3%",
      "measures": "August, the year's slowest month",
      "basis": "slow is not the same as negative"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Summer 2026, May 31 to August 4 · selected cards from the registry-tracked universe",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "May 31",
        "Aug 4",
        "Move"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Blastoise](/card/cel25cc-CC001) · Celebrations Classic",
          "May 31": "$18",
          "Aug 4": "$13",
          "Move": "−30%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Gengar Poke Ball · JP 151",
          "May 31": "$23",
          "Aug 4": "$17",
          "Move": "−26%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard ex SIR](/card/sv03.5-199) · [151](/set/151)",
          "May 31": "$453",
          "Aug 4": "$366",
          "Move": "−19%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Charizard ex · SVP promo",
          "May 31": "$25",
          "Aug 4": "$21",
          "Move": "−18%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard VSTAR](/card/swsh12.5-019) · [Crown Zenith](/set/crown%20zenith)",
          "May 31": "$13",
          "Aug 4": "$11",
          "Move": "−17%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu Star](/card/ex13-104) · Holon Phantoms",
          "May 31": "$1,830",
          "Aug 4": "$3,200",
          "Move": "+75%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/ecard3-84) · [Skyridge](/set/skyridge)",
          "May 31": "$80",
          "Aug 4": "$128",
          "Move": "+61%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Ho-Oh](/card/col1-9) · [Call of Legends](/set/call%20of%20legends)",
          "May 31": "$92",
          "Aug 4": "$145",
          "Move": "+58%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Trainer's Pikachu](/card/basep-24) · WotC promo",
          "May 31": "$259",
          "Aug 4": "$377",
          "Move": "+46%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "A lull in July and August, a snap-back in September",
    "The 2026 dip is a modern Charizard tax"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Set-level seasonality pools monthly closes from 190 sets with 12+ months of weekly TCGplayer value history (last weekly close per calendar month; absolute monthly moves over 150% discarded as data errors). Card-level figures use the registry-tracked universe: 88 cards priced $5+ with history through both endpoints, May 31 to August 4, 2026, compared against the same window in 2025. The vintage basket is 30 long-lived English cards. All history is real TCGplayer weekly data, which begins January 2025; no earlier seasonality is claimed, inferred, or modeled. That start date is the binding limit on the monthly table: February through July carry two readings per set and August through January carry one, so the autumn and winter figures are single observations rather than seasonal averages and are labelled as such in the text."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}