{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/summer-dip",
  "slug": "summer-dip",
  "title": "The Summer Dip Is Real. Your Index Says Otherwise. Both Are True.",
  "summary": "Collectors everywhere are calling this a summer slump, yet the moonstone Pokémon Index made new highs in every month of it. We measured 211 sets to reconcile the two, and the answer is a rotation story: the cards most people hold fell while the cards fewest people hold rallied.",
  "section": "Analysis",
  "published": "2026-08-08",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "−41.6%",
      "measures": "Chaos Rising, June 1 to its July 18 reading",
      "basis": "the worst set of the summer, three months after launch"
    },
    {
      "value": "−13.6%",
      "measures": "both 151 and Obsidian Flames",
      "basis": "even modern staples bled"
    },
    {
      "value": "+7.8%",
      "measures": "vintage set median over the same weeks",
      "basis": "the money did not leave, it moved up-tier"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Summer moves, June 1, 2026 to each set's latest reading as of August 8 (211 sets, real TCGplayer set values; many of those latest readings are mid-to-late July, see the methodology)",
      "columns": [
        "Segment",
        "Median summer move",
        "What it holds"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Segment": "moonstone Index (40 blue chips)",
          "Median summer move": "+8% within summer, +22.5% vs spring",
          "What it holds": "vintage holos, iconic alts, established chase cards"
        },
        {
          "Segment": "Vintage and promo sets (170)",
          "Median summer move": "+7.8%",
          "What it holds": "WOTC era, EX era, old promos"
        },
        {
          "Segment": "Modern sets, SWSH and SV era (41)",
          "Median summer move": "−0.4%",
          "What it holds": "what most active collectors buy"
        },
        {
          "Segment": "Freshly released ME-era sets",
          "Median summer move": "−12.4% to −41.6%",
          "What it holds": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising) −41.6%, [Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order) −25.9%, [Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes) −12.4%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Two markets wearing one name",
    "It is a supply cadence, not a season",
    "The rotation is visible in our own ledgers",
    "Seasonality exists, but it is the smaller force"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Set values are the summed real TCGplayer market prices of every tracked card in a set, computed daily by our set-history pipeline; summer move compares each set's value on June 1, 2026 with the LATEST READING THAT SET HAD on August 8, 2026, and that is not August 8 for most of them. The gate is a point after July 15, which leaves 211 sets, and on a 2026-09-22 recheck the readings behind the named figures date as follows: Chaos Rising -41.6% to July 18, Perfect Order -25.9% to July 21, 151 -13.6% to July 21, Ascended Heroes -12.4% to July 23, Obsidian Flames -13.6% to July 31. Read every set figure here as a June-to-July move, not a June-to-August one; two of the five series have since been extended to August 8 and now run to -46.9% for Chaos Rising and -28.9% for Perfect Order, while 151, Ascended Heroes and Obsidian Flames still end where they ended and are unchanged to the decimal. SET INDEXES CAN MOVE WITHOUT ANYBODY TRADING, so both basket tests were applied on the recheck: eleven of the 198 sets that are still measurable over this window either change their constituent count inside it or carry a single reading that moves the whole index by more than a fifth. Excluding them moves the vintage median from +8.7% to +8.3% and the modern median from -0.3% to -0.4%, and none of the named sets is among them. The moonstone Index is the equal-weight 40-card blue-chip series shown on the home page; its level cannot be reproduced at a later date, because each card is normalised to its own first reading inside a trailing 550-day window, so the base date rolls forward daily. That is why this piece dates its start to February 2025 and a piece written five weeks later dates the same series to March 2025. On the base of 2026-09-22 the index rose 11.1% from June 1 to August 8 and averaged 20.9% above spring, against the +8% and +22.5% printed here from the base of August 8. Modern means SWSH-era onward including ME sets; everything older, plus promo collections, counts as vintage/other. Graded repricing examples come from the immutable Weekly Buys ledger. Measured August 8, 2026."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}