{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-ask-is-lying-to-you",
  "slug": "the-ask-is-lying-to-you",
  "title": "The Ask Is Lying to You: What Raw Listing Prices Get Wrong by Construction",
  "summary": "A raw ask is a hope with a price tag. A graded sold median is a fact with a receipt, and the two describe different objects. On 55 of 152 deep-tape cards the PSA 9 sold median sits BELOW the raw ask, which is a gap worth pricing rather than a contradiction. Demand a 15% cushion before you underwrite it, and 14 popular grade-the-nine trades die on the spot, Giratina V and a $743 Mega Charizard nine among them.",
  "section": "Market Structure",
  "published": "2026-08-30",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "55 of 152",
      "measures": "deep-tape cards where the nine sells under the raw ask",
      "basis": "a sold median against an ask, on two different assets"
    },
    {
      "value": "1.09x",
      "measures": "median nine-to-ask ratio",
      "basis": "the modal grade barely clears a hope"
    },
    {
      "value": "14",
      "measures": "nine trades die under a 15% cushion",
      "basis": "of 62 that clear the printed ask plus fee"
    },
    {
      "value": "28%",
      "measures": "inverted in the wider 353-card table",
      "basis": "the nightly feature sweep agrees"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Eight of the fourteen grade-the-nine trades that die under a 15% cushion",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Raw ask",
        "PSA 9 sold (comps)",
        "Margin at ask",
        "Margin at 15% cushion"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Giratina V alt](/card/swsh11-186), [Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Raw ask": "$823.70",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$905 (208)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$61.30",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$62.25"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/me02-125), [Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Raw ask": "$672.78",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$743 (798)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$50.22",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$50.70"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/swshp-SWSH066), SWSH promos",
          "Raw ask": "$580.92",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$625.53 (26)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$24.61",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$62.53"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Blastoise & Piplup GX](/card/sm12-215), [Cosmic Eclipse](/set/cosmic%20eclipse)",
          "Raw ask": "$494.20",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$531.44 (61)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$17.24",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$56.89"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Sabrina's Gengar](/card/gym2-29), [Gym Challenge](/set/gym%20challenge)",
          "Raw ask": "$427",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$488.50 (26)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$41.50",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$22.55"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/cel25cc-CC002), Celebrations Classic",
          "Raw ask": "$170.70",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$193.25 (769)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$2.55",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$23.05"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard ex](/card/sv03-223), [Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)",
          "Raw ask": "$109.10",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$142.50 (684)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$13.40",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$2.96"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard V](/card/swshp-SWSH260), SWSH promos",
          "Raw ask": "$53.63",
          "PSA 9 sold (comps)": "$74.99 (305)",
          "Margin at ask": "+$1.36",
          "Margin at 15% cushion": "-$6.68"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "A nine under the ask is the tell",
    "Now haircut the ask, and watch the nine trades die"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: the 176 live mreport payloads on our book as of August 29, 2026; deep tape means a PSA 9 median on 20+ verified comps plus a recorded raw ask. The two legs of every comparison here are a SOLD median for the slab and an ASK for the raw card, and they are also two different assets, a graded 9 and an ungraded copy that still carries its chance of a 10; both asymmetries are stated in the body rather than only here. Margins are PSA 9 sold median minus ask minus the $20 grading fee; the stress test replaces the ask with 1.15x the ask. The 15% cushion is our chosen severity, not a measured clearing discount: real ask-to-sold gaps vary by card and venue, and we do not have raw sold tape to pin each one. The table prints eight of the fourteen trades that die. The wider sweep uses the nightly 500-card feature table. That August 29, 2026 report edition has since rolled over and the book now holds tens of thousands of card payloads across newer editions, so the 176, 152 and 55 counts are a dated snapshot that cannot be rebuilt from current tables. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}