{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-book-at-thirty-days",
  "slug": "the-book-at-thirty-days",
  "title": "The Book at Thirty Days: Every Position We Own, Marked, Including the Pair We Had to Suspend",
  "summary": "Ninety-seven published picks collapse to 28 distinct positions, of which 18 have been held long enough to mark and 2 are suspended for contaminated comps. The 16 live marks average minus 2.70% with a median of plus 0.33%, the damage concentrates entirely above $1,000 a position, and one rule appears on 15 of the 16 tickets, which means our factor attribution currently cannot identify anything. Here is all of it.",
  "section": "Methodology",
  "published": "2026-09-02",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "-2.70%",
      "measures": "mean return, 16 live marks",
      "basis": "median +0.33%, eight up and eight down"
    },
    {
      "value": "-6.64%",
      "measures": "mean return above $1,000 a position",
      "basis": "four positions, three of them down"
    },
    {
      "value": "15 of 16",
      "measures": "tickets carrying the same rule",
      "basis": "why factor attribution cannot identify anything yet"
    },
    {
      "value": "0",
      "measures": "entry prices ever edited",
      "basis": "suspension and disclosure, never deletion"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Every position carrying a 14 day hold, as of September 2, 2026",
      "columns": [
        "Position",
        "Entry",
        "Mark",
        "Return",
        "Held"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Position": "[Sinistcha ex](/card/sv06-210) PSA 10, [Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Entry": "$163.25",
          "Mark": "$194.00",
          "Return": "+18.8%",
          "Held": "29d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Bede](/card/swsh1-199) raw, [Sword & Shield](/set/sword%20%26%20shield)",
          "Entry": "$3.25",
          "Mark": "$3.66",
          "Return": "+12.6%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Kieran](/card/sv06-218) raw, [Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Entry": "$27.23",
          "Mark": "$30.24",
          "Return": "+11.1%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Scizor](/card/neo2-10) PSA 9, [Neo Discovery](/set/neo%20discovery)",
          "Entry": "$241.25",
          "Mark": "$255.00",
          "Return": "+5.7%",
          "Held": "20d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Volkner](/card/sm5-156) raw, [Ultra Prism](/set/ultra%20prism)",
          "Entry": "$32.31",
          "Mark": "$33.39",
          "Return": "+3.3%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Umbreon](/card/neo2-32) PSA 9, [Neo Discovery](/set/neo%20discovery)",
          "Entry": "$245.50",
          "Mark": "$252.75",
          "Return": "+3.0%",
          "Held": "26d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Reshiram ex](/card/sv10.5w-173) PSA 10, [White Flare](/set/white%20flare)",
          "Entry": "$1,299.99",
          "Mark": "$1,325.53",
          "Return": "+2.0%",
          "Held": "29d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Sinistcha ex](/card/sv06-210) raw, [Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Entry": "$33.92",
          "Mark": "$34.42",
          "Return": "+1.5%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Teal Mask Ogerpon](/card/svp-123) raw, SVP promo, Pokémon Center stamp",
          "Entry": "$21.97",
          "Mark": "$21.79",
          "Return": "-0.8%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex](/card/sv10-231) PSA 10, [Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Entry": "$1,199.49",
          "Mark": "$1,128.90",
          "Return": "-5.9%",
          "Held": "29d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Mew ex](/card/sv04.5-232) PSA 10, [Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates)",
          "Entry": "$3,475.50",
          "Mark": "$3,100.00",
          "Return": "-10.8%",
          "Held": "29d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Umbreon ex](/card/sv08.5-161) PSA 10, [Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "Entry": "$6,225.00",
          "Mark": "$5,487.50",
          "Return": "-11.8%",
          "Held": "18d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Ethan's Adventure](/card/sv10-236) raw, [Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Entry": "$41.40",
          "Mark": "$36.23",
          "Return": "-12.5%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Ethan's Adventure](/card/sv10-236) PSA 10, [Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Entry": "$167.50",
          "Mark": "$144.69",
          "Return": "-13.6%",
          "Held": "29d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Kieran](/card/sv06-218) PSA 10, [Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Entry": "$79.46",
          "Mark": "$66.38",
          "Return": "-16.5%",
          "Held": "26d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Crispin](/card/sv07-164) raw, [Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)",
          "Entry": "$8.58",
          "Mark": "$6.08",
          "Return": "-29.1%",
          "Held": "34d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Moltres](/card/base3-12) PSA 9, [Fossil](/set/fossil) (suspended)",
          "Entry": "$391.50",
          "Mark": "not marked",
          "Return": "n/a",
          "Held": "29d"
        },
        {
          "Position": "[Zapdos](/card/base3-15) PSA 9, [Fossil](/set/fossil) (suspended)",
          "Entry": "$385.50",
          "Mark": "not marked",
          "Return": "n/a",
          "Held": "26d"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "From 97 published rows to 16 honest marks",
    "The losses live at the top of the price ladder",
    "The attribution problem we cannot solve yet"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Source: the moonstone weekly_picks ledger, 97 published rows from 2026-W31 through 2026-W36 plus the daily editions of August 31 and September 1, 2026, collapsed to 28 distinct card-and-seat positions at their earliest published entry. A position is marked only with a 14 day minimum hold: graded seats against the latest verified sold median for that card and grade in the daily graded snapshot table (tape through August 28 to 29, 2026, per card), raw seats against the September 2, 2026 market price. Holds run 18 to 34 days. The Teal Mask Ogerpon position is the POKEMON CENTER STAMPED printing (TCGplayer 552786, $21.79 on September 2), which is what the $21.97 entry and the mark both price; its card link resolves to svp-123, the SVP promo page, because the stamped printing has no separate catalog id on our book, and the unstamped promo behind that link trades at $1.50. We name the printing rather than let the link imply the cheaper one. The two Fossil PSA 9 positions are suspended because their comp series still disagrees with itself: our own printing-verified snapshot of [Moltres](/card/base3-12) reads $199.99 on 72 comps on August 25, while the provider tape three days later on August 28 reads $579 on 201, the exact mechanism documented in [The $479 Lie](/articles/the-479-dollar-lie). Returns are unweighted and gross of fees, shipping, and grading costs; a real book pays all three. Sixteen marks over thirty days is not a track record and no significance is claimed. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}