{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-cards-fell-the-box-did-not",
  "slug": "the-cards-fell-the-box-did-not",
  "title": "In Ten Sets the Cards Fell and the Sealed Box Went Up",
  "summary": "We paired 193 sealed price tags against 21,245 singles, set by set, over 25 days. Pitch Black cards lost 17.3% while its Elite Trainer Box gained 8.0%, and it was not the only set that did it.",
  "section": "Research",
  "published": "2026-10-04",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "31 of 34",
      "measures": "sets where the singles basket fell",
      "basis": "the sealed shelf fell in 22"
    },
    {
      "value": "10",
      "measures": "sets with the shelf up and the cards down",
      "basis": "the reverse happened once"
    },
    {
      "value": "11 of 11",
      "measures": "sets released since January 2025 whose cards fell",
      "basis": "median 10.6%"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The ten sets where the shelf rose while the cards fell",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Cards",
        "Shelf",
        "SKUs priced",
        "Cards priced"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "Trick or Trade 2023",
          "Cards": "0.00%",
          "Shelf": "+29.69%",
          "SKUs priced": "3",
          "Cards priced": "30"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Pitch Black",
          "Cards": "-17.34%",
          "Shelf": "+2.54%",
          "SKUs priced": "4",
          "Cards priced": "120"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Chaos Rising",
          "Cards": "-17.20%",
          "Shelf": "+2.50%",
          "SKUs priced": "4",
          "Cards priced": "122"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Perfect Order",
          "Cards": "-18.15%",
          "Shelf": "+1.28%",
          "SKUs priced": "4",
          "Cards priced": "124"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Trick or Trade 2024",
          "Cards": "-3.09%",
          "Shelf": "+9.96%",
          "SKUs priced": "4",
          "Cards priced": "30"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Trick or Trade",
          "Cards": "+5.17%",
          "Shelf": "+13.65%",
          "SKUs priced": "3",
          "Cards priced": "30"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Silver Tempest",
          "Cards": "-2.64%",
          "Shelf": "+2.56%",
          "SKUs priced": "4",
          "Cards priced": "215"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Evolutions",
          "Cards": "-0.95%",
          "Shelf": "+2.31%",
          "SKUs priced": "3",
          "Cards priced": "113"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Surging Sparks",
          "Cards": "-4.05%",
          "Shelf": "+0.17%",
          "SKUs priced": "5",
          "Cards priced": "252"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Paradox Rift",
          "Cards": "-2.27%",
          "Shelf": "+0.80%",
          "SKUs priced": "6",
          "Cards priced": "266"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The newest sets are where the gap lives",
    "The one that went the other way",
    "What this measure is not"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Window 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-02, both days inclusive. Sealed: sealed_price_history readings for products classifyProduct calls Booster Box, Elite Trainer Box, ETB (Pokemon Center) or Booster Bundle, lots excluded, priced on both days (193 SKUs of 3,750 readings; 774 lots and 2,582 other product kinds dropped). Singles: price_history joined to cards on tcg_id, lang 'en', one row per TCGplayer product id, priced on both days (21,245 of 21,419 ids seen). Sets matched by folding the set name on both sides, which removes the provider's era prefix (ME05:, XY -). A set needs 3 or more sealed SKUs and 10 or more cards. 34 sets qualify. 30th Celebration is excluded because it released on 2026-09-16, inside the window. Each set figure is a fixed-panel basket: the sum of the same products' prices on each day. Medians are the upper middle value on an even sample. Every figure here is printed by scripts/the-cards-fell-the-box-did-not-figures.mts."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}