{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-drawdown-book",
  "slug": "the-drawdown-book",
  "title": "The Drawdown Book: Among $5 Cards, Two in Three Sit Within 5% of Their 18-Month High, and Buying the Dip Trailed Buying Anything for a Quarter",
  "summary": "We measured every peak-to-trough fall in 2,417 continuously recorded price curves since January 2025. The median card gave back 22.6% from a running high at some point; one in three fell 30% or more. Among cards priced $5 and up, 64% now sit within 5% of their high and 79% set that high since June. The test collectors want is the dip: after a card first fell 30%, its median 90-day return was +5.9% with 63% of cards positive, against +9.7% and 76% for any 90-day window in the same cards. Cheap cards fell hardest and, except at the very top of the price list, rose least: the under-$1 tier gained 67.0% at the median against 94.9% for the $25-to-$100 tier, though the $100-and-up tier gained less than either at 57.5%. Sword & Shield cards drew down twice as deep as Sun & Moon. Here is the book.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-13",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "22.6%",
      "measures": "median deepest drawdown, all 2,417 cards",
      "basis": "quartiles 11.6% and 33.6%"
    },
    {
      "value": "788",
      "measures": "cards that fell 30% or more from a running high",
      "basis": "32.6% of the book; 191 fell 50% or more"
    },
    {
      "value": "64%",
      "measures": "of $5+ cards within 5% of their 18-month high today",
      "basis": "814 of 1,269; 8 sit below half their high"
    },
    {
      "value": "+5.9%",
      "measures": "median 90-day return after a card first fell 30%",
      "basis": "vs +9.7% for any 90-day window in the same cards"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Drawdown and return by starting price (median of the first ten recorded points, 27 January to 31 March 2025)",
      "columns": [
        "Start price",
        "Cards",
        "Median deepest drawdown",
        "Fell 30%+",
        "Median gain to today",
        "Within 5% of high now"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Start price": "Under $1",
          "Cards": "716",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "32.2%",
          "Fell 30%+": "407 (56.8%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+67.0%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "220 (30.7%)"
        },
        {
          "Start price": "$1 to $5",
          "Cards": "784",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "23.2%",
          "Fell 30%+": "239 (30.5%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+79.3%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "338 (43.1%)"
        },
        {
          "Start price": "$5 to $25",
          "Cards": "620",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "14.9%",
          "Fell 30%+": "101 (16.3%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+86.9%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "380 (61.3%)"
        },
        {
          "Start price": "$25 to $100",
          "Cards": "230",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "10.0%",
          "Fell 30%+": "31 (13.5%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+94.9%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "168 (73.0%)"
        },
        {
          "Start price": "$100 and up",
          "Cards": "67",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "12.3%",
          "Fell 30%+": "10 (14.9%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+57.5%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "50 (74.6%)"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Drawdown and return by era (cards with a full curve; WotC and Scarlet & Violet have no curves long enough to rate). The Black & White row is Dark Explorers alone and the EX era row is Power Keepers alone, so neither is an era",
      "columns": [
        "Era",
        "Cards",
        "Median deepest drawdown",
        "Fell 30%+",
        "Median gain to today",
        "Within 5% of high now",
        "Median distance from high now"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Era": "Sun & Moon (2017 to 2019)",
          "Cards": "1,226",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "15.5%",
          "Fell 30%+": "198 (16.2%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+95.2%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "772 (63.0%)",
          "Median distance from high now": "2.6%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Sword & Shield (2020 to 2022)",
          "Cards": "745",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "30.6%",
          "Fell 30%+": "387 (51.9%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+50.9%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "185 (24.8%)",
          "Median distance from high now": "11.6%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "XY (2014 to 2016)",
          "Cards": "138",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "24.5%",
          "Fell 30%+": "53 (38.4%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+68.0%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "41 (29.7%)",
          "Median distance from high now": "8.6%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Other (promos, McDonald's, subsets)",
          "Cards": "254",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "34.8%",
          "Fell 30%+": "142 (55.9%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+95.0%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "116 (45.7%)",
          "Median distance from high now": "7.1%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Black & White (Dark Explorers only)",
          "Cards": "29",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "15.8%",
          "Fell 30%+": "6 (20.7%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+137.8%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "20 (69.0%)",
          "Median distance from high now": "2.4%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "EX era (Power Keepers only)",
          "Cards": "25",
          "Median deepest drawdown": "12.8%",
          "Fell 30%+": "2 (8.0%)",
          "Median gain to today": "+132.4%",
          "Within 5% of high now": "22 (88.0%)",
          "Median distance from high now": "1.0%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "After the first 30% drawdown, cards priced $5 and up (210 episodes)",
      "columns": [
        "Group",
        "Episodes",
        "Median 90-day return",
        "Positive at 90 days",
        "Median 180-day return",
        "Positive at 180 days",
        "Regained 95% of prior high",
        "Median days to regain"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Group": "All $5+",
          "Episodes": "210",
          "Median 90-day return": "+5.9%",
          "Positive at 90 days": "124 of 198 (62.6%)",
          "Median 180-day return": "+24.6%",
          "Positive at 180 days": "152 of 183 (83.1%)",
          "Regained 95% of prior high": "132 (62.9%)",
          "Median days to regain": "140"
        },
        {
          "Group": "$5 to $25 now",
          "Episodes": "149",
          "Median 90-day return": "+7.9%",
          "Positive at 90 days": "89 of 138 (64.5%)",
          "Median 180-day return": "+29.3%",
          "Positive at 180 days": "109 of 129 (84.5%)",
          "Regained 95% of prior high": "100 (67.1%)",
          "Median days to regain": "140"
        },
        {
          "Group": "$25 to $100 now",
          "Episodes": "44",
          "Median 90-day return": "+1.1%",
          "Positive at 90 days": "24 of 43 (55.8%)",
          "Median 180-day return": "+19.1%",
          "Positive at 180 days": "30 of 39 (76.9%)",
          "Regained 95% of prior high": "21 (47.7%)",
          "Median days to regain": "140"
        },
        {
          "Group": "$100 and up now",
          "Episodes": "17",
          "Median 90-day return": "+6.9%",
          "Positive at 90 days": "11 of 17",
          "Median 180-day return": "+21.5%",
          "Positive at 180 days": "13 of 15",
          "Regained 95% of prior high": "11",
          "Median days to regain": "133"
        },
        {
          "Group": "Unconditional, any 90-day window",
          "Episodes": "20,340",
          "Median 90-day return": "+9.7%",
          "Positive at 90 days": "76.4%",
          "Median 180-day return": "+21.4%",
          "Positive at 180 days": "82.5%",
          "Regained 95% of prior high": "n/a",
          "Median days to regain": "n/a"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Deepest current drawdowns among cards that reached $25 or more (price is the median of the last ten recorded points). Nest Ball's high is the FIRST point of the tape, so its 594 days is the whole window and its peak is left-censored; 36 of the 2,417 are in that position",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "18-month high",
        "Now",
        "Below high",
        "Days since high"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard GX](/card/smp-SM195)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos SM195",
          "18-month high": "$103.38",
          "Now": "$24.87",
          "Below high": "75.9%",
          "Days since high": "356"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Nest Ball](/card/sm1-158)",
          "Set": "[Sun & Moon](/set/sm%20base%20set) 158",
          "18-month high": "$27.32",
          "Now": "$9.20",
          "Below high": "66.3%",
          "Days since high": "594"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[M Charizard EX](/card/xy12-13)",
          "Set": "[Evolutions](/set/xy%20-%20evolutions) 13",
          "18-month high": "$106.98",
          "Now": "$42.52",
          "Below high": "60.3%",
          "Days since high": "363"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu & Zekrom GX](/card/sm9-33)",
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up) 33",
          "18-month high": "$127.86",
          "Now": "$56.36",
          "Below high": "55.9%",
          "Days since high": "97"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon V](/card/swsh7-189)",
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies) 189",
          "18-month high": "$687.88",
          "Now": "$390.25",
          "Below high": "43.3%",
          "Days since high": "349"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Field Blower](/card/sm2-163)",
          "Set": "[Guardians Rising](/set/guardians%20rising) 163",
          "18-month high": "$32.26",
          "Now": "$18.32",
          "Below high": "43.2%",
          "Days since high": "384"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon GX](/card/sm1-142)",
          "Set": "[Sun & Moon](/set/sm%20base%20set) 142",
          "18-month high": "$97.93",
          "Now": "$57.66",
          "Below high": "41.1%",
          "Days since high": "517"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lillie](/card/sm1-147)",
          "Set": "[Sun & Moon](/set/sm%20base%20set) 147",
          "18-month high": "$73.73",
          "Now": "$43.76",
          "Below high": "40.6%",
          "Days since high": "538"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Escape Rope](/card/sm3-163)",
          "Set": "[Burning Shadows](/set/burning%20shadows) 163",
          "18-month high": "$27.57",
          "Now": "$16.71",
          "Below high": "39.4%",
          "Days since high": "510"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Blacephalon GX](/card/sm8-219)",
          "Set": "[Lost Thunder](/set/lost%20thunder) 219",
          "18-month high": "$55.15",
          "Now": "$33.98",
          "Below high": "38.4%",
          "Days since high": "363"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[M Altaria EX](/card/xy10-121)",
          "Set": "[Fates Collide](/set/fates%20collide) 121",
          "18-month high": "$41.08",
          "Now": "$25.76",
          "Below high": "37.3%",
          "Days since high": "489"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Kyogre-EX](/card/bw5-104) (high held flat at a round number for 16 weeks)",
          "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers) 104",
          "18-month high": "$500.00",
          "Now": "$317.72",
          "Below high": "36.5%",
          "Days since high": "475"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Celesteela GX](/card/sm5-162)",
          "Set": "[Ultra Prism](/set/ultra%20prism) 162",
          "18-month high": "$43.03",
          "Now": "$27.49",
          "Below high": "36.1%",
          "Days since high": "251"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Darkness Energy](/card/swsh7-236)",
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies) 236",
          "18-month high": "$38.20",
          "Now": "$24.44",
          "Below high": "36.0%",
          "Days since high": "125"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Cards priced $25 or more now that sit within 5% of their high, ranked by gain since the first-ten-point baseline of early 2025",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "January 2025",
        "Now",
        "Multiple",
        "Deepest drawdown on the way"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Plusle](/card/bw5-39)",
          "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers) 39",
          "January 2025": "$2.14",
          "Now": "$31.01",
          "Multiple": "14.5x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "27.0%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Electrode](/card/sm9-39)",
          "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up) 39",
          "January 2025": "$3.86",
          "Now": "$46.04",
          "Multiple": "11.9x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "9.7%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/smp-SM98)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos SM98",
          "January 2025": "$6.56",
          "Now": "$62.15",
          "Multiple": "9.5x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "9.9%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/2016xy-6)",
          "Set": "McDonald's Collection 2016",
          "January 2025": "$5.45",
          "Now": "$43.39",
          "Multiple": "8.0x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "45.8%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/smp-SM206)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos SM206",
          "January 2025": "$4.21",
          "Now": "$31.20",
          "Multiple": "7.4x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "5.6%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/smp-SM86)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos SM86",
          "January 2025": "$5.75",
          "Now": "$35.66",
          "Multiple": "6.2x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "5.3%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu](/card/smp-SM81)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos SM81",
          "January 2025": "$5.75",
          "Now": "$33.01",
          "Multiple": "5.7x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "8.5%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Kyogre](/card/smp-SM129)",
          "Set": "SM Black Star Promos SM129",
          "January 2025": "$6.14",
          "Now": "$34.51",
          "Multiple": "5.6x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "3.1%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Dedenne GX](/card/sm10-195)",
          "Set": "[Unbroken Bonds](/set/unbroken%20bonds) 195",
          "January 2025": "$5.16",
          "Now": "$28.79",
          "Multiple": "5.6x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "6.6%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Kyogre-EX](/card/bw5-26)",
          "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers) 26",
          "January 2025": "$20.94",
          "Now": "$113.11",
          "Multiple": "5.4x",
          "Deepest drawdown on the way": "5.9%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Deepest drawdown since January 2025, cards priced $5 and up",
      "unit": " cards",
      "note": "1,269 cards; the cheap end of the book is deeper still (see the tier table)",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "0 to 10%",
          "value": 459,
          "basis": "36.2%"
        },
        {
          "label": "10 to 20%",
          "value": 337,
          "basis": "26.6%"
        },
        {
          "label": "20 to 30%",
          "value": 263,
          "basis": "20.7%"
        },
        {
          "label": "30 to 50%",
          "value": 169,
          "basis": "13.3%"
        },
        {
          "label": "50% and worse",
          "value": 41,
          "basis": "3.2%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Month in which each $5+ card set its 18-month high",
      "unit": " cards",
      "note": "1,269 cards; 1,004 of them (79.1%) peaked in June, July, August or September 2026",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "2025, all twelve months",
          "value": 179,
          "basis": "14.1%"
        },
        {
          "label": "Jan to May 2026",
          "value": 86,
          "basis": "6.8%"
        },
        {
          "label": "June 2026",
          "value": 130,
          "basis": "10.2%"
        },
        {
          "label": "July 2026",
          "value": 178,
          "basis": "14.0%"
        },
        {
          "label": "August 2026",
          "value": 210,
          "basis": "16.5%"
        },
        {
          "label": "September 2026 (to the 13th)",
          "value": 486,
          "basis": "38.3%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "A 22% fall is the middle of the distribution, not a crash",
    "The cheap cards fell hardest, and rose least except against the chase tier",
    "Sword & Shield cards drew down twice as deep as Sun & Moon",
    "Four cards in five set their high since June",
    "Buying after a 30% fall beat nothing",
    "Where the book is furthest under water",
    "What a full recovery looks like, and the cards that never fell"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: the 2,417 catalog cards (English prints, keyed by TCGplayer product id) whose recorded TCGplayer market price curve in our price store has at least 80 recorded points, spans at least 360 days, and has a point within 14 days of 2026-09-13; median span 593 days, first points 2025-01-27, weekly cadence for most of the window and daily from late July 2026 apart from a gap between 11 and 29 August; the recorded curve alone is used, without the daily canonical price store. Curves come from 40 sets; by era: Sun & Moon 1,226, Sword & Shield 745, other 254, XY 138, Black & White 29, EX era 25. Price now is the median of the last ten recorded points; start price the median of the first ten. Deepest drawdown is the largest value of 1 minus price over running maximum across the curve; distance from high is 1 minus price now over the window maximum; a card is within 5% of its high when that distance is 0.05 or less. Tier tables sort on start price unless stated. The 30% episode is the first point at which drawdown from the running high reached 30%; forward returns compare the first recorded price on or within 7 days after the trigger date plus 90 or 180 days to the price on the trigger date, only where that horizon had elapsed by 2026-09-13 (198 and 183 of 210 episodes); an episode counts as regained when a later point reaches 95% of the pre-fall high, and days to regain are counted from the trigger. The unconditional baseline takes every 90-day window starting every 30 days from each $5+ card's first point (20,340 windows). Peak months use the date of the window maximum. Medians on even samples average the two middle values. Recorded prices are TCGplayer market prices for the flagship printing, not sold prices, and can move on a single relisting for thin cards. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}