{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-first-negative-stamp",
  "slug": "the-first-negative-stamp",
  "title": "The First Negative Stamp: The Card You Lose Money Grading Even When It Works",
  "summary": "The Wizards promo Eevee has 31 PSA 10s out of 10,685 slabs ever graded, a 0.29% gem rate against a 2.23% break-even. Its expected value per submission is minus $3.97, the first negative stamp on our desk, and at registry-average outcomes that is not bad luck. It is the arithmetic working as printed. Here is what makes a card structurally ungradeable, and the ranked list nobody should mail.",
  "section": "Analysis",
  "published": "2026-08-30",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "31",
      "measures": "PSA 10s in existence",
      "basis": "on a registry of 10,685 slabs"
    },
    {
      "value": "0.29%",
      "measures": "lifetime gem rate",
      "basis": "break-even needs 2.23%"
    },
    {
      "value": "-$3.97",
      "measures": "expected net per submission",
      "basis": "at registry-average outcomes"
    },
    {
      "value": "83.34%",
      "measures": "of modeled submissions return raw",
      "basis": "the modal outcome is nothing"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The ten worst submissions on the live book, by expected net",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "EV / submission",
        "Gem odds",
        "Break-even",
        "The problem"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Kieran](/card/sv06-218), [Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "EV / submission": "-$7.58",
          "Gem odds": "48.64%",
          "Break-even": "57.98%",
          "The problem": "prize too small: $66.38 ten, $28.76 ask"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Eevee](/card/basep-11), Wizards promos",
          "EV / submission": "-$3.97",
          "Gem odds": "0.29%",
          "Break-even": "2.23%",
          "The problem": "odds below break-even, 31 tens ever"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu IR](/card/sv03.5-173), [151](/set/151)",
          "EV / submission": "-$1.58",
          "Gem odds": "26.76%",
          "Break-even": "50.03%",
          "The problem": "1.6x prize on a hardening gate"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Hisuian Sneasler V](/card/swsh10-175), [Astral Radiance](/set/astral%20radiance)",
          "EV / submission": "+$1.68",
          "Gem odds": "49.73%",
          "Break-even": "43.30%",
          "The problem": "positive by a rounding error"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Ethan's Adventure](/card/sv10-236), [Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "EV / submission": "+$27.03",
          "Gem odds": "42.05%",
          "Break-even": "22.53%",
          "The problem": "thin cushion on a fresh registry"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard V](/card/swshp-SWSH050), SWSH promos",
          "EV / submission": "+$29.54",
          "Gem odds": "56.31%",
          "Break-even": "27.53%",
          "The problem": "90,489 pop; the ten is a commodity"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Eevee](/card/svp-173), SVP promos",
          "EV / submission": "+$34.23",
          "Gem odds": "37.90%",
          "Break-even": "17.55%",
          "The problem": "81,385 pop, industrial supply"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard VMAX](/card/swsh3.5-74), [Champion's Path](/set/champion%27s%20path)",
          "EV / submission": "+$36.89",
          "Gem odds": "69.56%",
          "Break-even": "41.47%",
          "The problem": "gems easily, so tens carry no scarcity"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Arceus VSTAR](/card/swsh12.5gg-GG70), [Crown Zenith GG](/set/crown%20zenith%20galarian%20gallery)",
          "EV / submission": "+$40.05",
          "Gem odds": "56.85%",
          "Break-even": "32.59%",
          "The problem": "$345.88 ten over a $217.13 ask"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Entei](/card/basep-34), Wizards promos",
          "EV / submission": "+$50.28",
          "Gem odds": "4.60%",
          "Break-even": "2.13%",
          "The problem": "positive, but 58% of outcomes return raw"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "How a card becomes structurally ungradeable",
    "The ranked list: the worst mail in the hobby"
  ],
  "method": [
    "EV figures are the recorded EV blocks from the 97 live report dossiers carrying one on our book as of August 28, 2026: three-outcome model (gem, PSA 9, raw) at registry-average rates with a $20 fee, raw outcomes valued at the ask. The ask-versus-sold caveat from [our companion study](/articles/the-ask-is-lying-to-you) applies to every raw figure and generally makes marginal trades worse, not better. Registry counts and gem rates are PSA registry snapshots; Eevee's zero-gem window covers August 4 to 11, 2026. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}