{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-gem-rate-drift",
  "slug": "the-gem-rate-drift",
  "title": "The Gem Rate Drift: PSA Is Getting Stricter, and We Can Prove It Card by Card",
  "summary": "Across 99 heavily-submitted cards, new slabs gem at 58.6% against a 62.0% historical rate. The extremes are stark: the Van Gogh Pikachu gemmed 42.9% of its life and 21.9% of its last 736 submissions. Grading standards drift, and daily registry tape makes the drift measurable.",
  "section": "Data forensics",
  "published": "2026-08-28",
  "readMinutes": 6,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "62.0%",
      "measures": "average lifetime gem rate",
      "basis": "the 99-card cohort"
    },
    {
      "value": "58.6%",
      "measures": "gem share of NEW submissions",
      "basis": "same cards, recent window"
    },
    {
      "value": "41 vs 16",
      "measures": "cards stricter vs looser",
      "basis": "beyond 3 points of drift"
    },
    {
      "value": "-24.8pts",
      "measures": "the steepest tightening",
      "basis": "Charizard ex, Paldean Fates"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The strictest drifts (lifetime gem rate vs recent submissions)",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Lifetime",
        "Recent",
        "New slabs"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard ex, Paldean Fates](/card/sv04.5-234)",
          "Lifetime": "40.6%",
          "Recent": "15.8%",
          "New slabs": "285"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Squirtle, Stellar Crown](/card/sv07-148)",
          "Lifetime": "37.6%",
          "Recent": "14.5%",
          "New slabs": "234"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat](/card/svp-085)",
          "Lifetime": "42.9%",
          "Recent": "21.9%",
          "New slabs": "736"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu, 151](/card/sv03.5-173)",
          "Lifetime": "26.9%",
          "Recent": "8.5%",
          "New slabs": "329"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mew, Crown Zenith GG](/card/swsh12.5gg-GG10)",
          "Lifetime": "28.3%",
          "Recent": "10.7%",
          "New slabs": "318"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Why drift happens, and why it clusters"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Cohort: every tracked card whose PSA population grew by at least 200 slabs across a window of at least 10 days ending August 28, 2026, with a starting population of at least 500 (99 cards). Lifetime gem rate = gem count over total at the window start; recent gem share = gem-count delta over total delta across the window. Averages are unweighted across the cohort; the cohort skews toward heavily-submitted modern chases by construction. Population figures are PSA registry counts recorded daily by moonstone. Drift attribution (supply decay vs submitter mix vs standards) is discussed qualitatively; the data measures the drift itself, not its cause. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}