{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-grading-frontier",
  "slug": "the-grading-frontier",
  "title": "The Grading Frontier: The 10 Pays, the 9 Decides",
  "summary": "Expected value says grading usually wins. Then we priced what actually happens most of the time, the 9, and found that on roughly half these cards, the most likely outcome loses money. This is the map of both sides of the bet.",
  "section": "Investment research",
  "published": "2026-08-04",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "106 / 219",
      "measures": "cards where a NINE loses money",
      "basis": "PSA 9 value < raw price + fee"
    },
    {
      "value": "54",
      "measures": "positive-EV cards that lose >50% of the time",
      "basis": "the expectation is real; so is the coin-flip"
    },
    {
      "value": "+$124",
      "measures": "median expected value",
      "basis": "per submission, after the $25 fee"
    },
    {
      "value": "31%",
      "measures": "median chance of losing money",
      "basis": "on a single submission, per-grade odds"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Positive expectation, likely loss, the lottery-shaped cards",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Raw",
        "Gem rate",
        "Expected value",
        "If it 9s",
        "Chance you lose"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Lugia GX](/card/sm8-207) · Lost Thunder FA",
          "Raw": "$112",
          "Gem rate": "26%",
          "Expected value": "+$290",
          "If it 9s": "−$122 (48% likely)",
          "Chance you lose": "74%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Rayquaza ★ δ · Delta Species",
          "Raw": "$330",
          "Gem rate": "5.7%",
          "Expected value": "+$333",
          "If it 9s": "+$620, the 8 is the loss",
          "Chance you lose": "71%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Eevee · JP promo",
          "Raw": "$150",
          "Gem rate": "31%",
          "Expected value": "+$862",
          "If it 9s": "+$75",
          "Chance you lose": "70%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Both sides of the bet, by gem rate",
      "columns": [
        "Registry gem rate",
        "Cards",
        "Median EV",
        "Median outcome at a 9",
        "Median chance of loss"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Registry gem rate": "Under 10%",
          "Cards": "47",
          "Median EV": "+$333",
          "Median outcome at a 9": "+$516",
          "Median chance of loss": "25%"
        },
        {
          "Registry gem rate": "10–25%",
          "Cards": "35",
          "Median EV": "+$184",
          "Median outcome at a 9": "+$61",
          "Median chance of loss": "27%"
        },
        {
          "Registry gem rate": "25–45%",
          "Cards": "45",
          "Median EV": "+$82",
          "Median outcome at a 9": "−$12",
          "Median chance of loss": "63%"
        },
        {
          "Registry gem rate": "45–65%",
          "Cards": "43",
          "Median EV": "+$70",
          "Median outcome at a 9": "−$19",
          "Median chance of loss": "41%"
        },
        {
          "Registry gem rate": "Over 65%",
          "Cards": "49",
          "Median EV": "+$56",
          "Median outcome at a 9": "−$16",
          "Median chance of loss": "16%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "What the most likely grade actually pays",
    "Vintage nines protect you; modern nines don't",
    "Three patterns that void the bet entirely"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Sample: 219 cards for which moonstone holds, as of August 4, 2026, (a) a live raw market price of at least $1, (b) a verified PSA 10 median with 3+ individually-verified sales, and (c) a real PSA registry population of 100+ with per-grade counts. SELECTION CAVEAT: these are cards our pipeline has fully processed, disproportionately grading-worthy cards, so the 97%-positive-EV share describes this sample, not the catalog. Outcome model per submission: value at 10 = verified PSA 10 median; at 9 = verified PSA 9 median (raw × 0.9 where none exists); at 8 = verified PSA 8 median (raw × 0.8 fallback); below 8 = PSA 8 median × 0.7 (raw × 0.7 fallback). Probabilities are true registry proportions per grade (population at grade ÷ total graded). Expected value = probability-weighted outcomes − raw price − $25 fee; \"chance of loss\" = summed probability of grades whose outcome is below raw + fee. Grade-inverted and registry-conflicted cards are flagged, not smoothed. Fee = PSA value tier + shipping, rounded to $25. The vintage/modern split is by set family. CORRECTED 2026-09-22: the lede read 217 where the sample is 219, and the lottery table carried a fourth row, the Holon Phantoms Pikachu, whose figures contradicted this article's own products block for the same card (the row said the nine pays +$608 at a 73% chance of loss; the tile said +$12,325 at 0%). Our stored graded tape begins after this article was written and holds no PSA 8 at any date, so neither reading can be recomputed and the row has been withdrawn rather than adjudicated. Everything else here is as published. Nothing here is financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}