{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-least-graded-cards-in-pokemon",
  "slug": "the-least-graded-cards-in-pokemon",
  "title": "The Least Graded Cards in Pokemon: Thin Registries Outran Deep Ones in Every Price Band Above $5 This Year",
  "summary": "Of the 23,110 registry lines we can price, 12,980 have fewer than 100 PSA slabs and 7,071 have fewer than ten. The median one is worth 39 cents. But 118 cards priced above $100 sit under 100 slabs, they are mostly staff stamps and championship cards, and in every price tier from $5 up the thinly graded card outran the deeply graded one over the past year: $25 to $100 cards with under 100 slabs rose a median 107% while their 10,000-slab peers rose 13%. The PSA 10 premium runs 21.6x at the thin end and 4.3x at the deep end. Here is the bottom of the registry, what it did, and why that is not quite a buy signal.",
  "section": "Data forensics",
  "published": "2026-09-13",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "12,980",
      "measures": "priced registry lines under 100 PSA slabs",
      "basis": "of 23,110, median raw price $0.39"
    },
    {
      "value": "118",
      "measures": "cards above $100 raw with under 100 slabs",
      "basis": "729 above $100 sit under 1,000 slabs"
    },
    {
      "value": "+107%",
      "measures": "median 365-day move, $25 to $100 cards under 100 slabs",
      "basis": "vs +13% for the same tier at 10,000+ slabs"
    },
    {
      "value": "21.6x",
      "measures": "PSA 10 premium over raw, under 100 slabs",
      "basis": "vs 4.3x at 10,000+ slabs"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The twelve dearest catalog cards with fewer than 100 PSA slabs, priced $100 or more, by recorded raw market (2026-09-13), after the PSA 9 contradiction test",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Raw market",
        "PSA slabs",
        "PSA 10s",
        "365d move"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Chimecho δ](/card/pop4-1)",
          "Set": "[POP Series 4](/set/pop%20series%204) 1",
          "Raw market": "$750",
          "PSA slabs": "95",
          "PSA 10s": "8",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lucario](/card/bwp-BW85)",
          "Set": "BW Black Star Promos BW85",
          "Raw market": "$332",
          "PSA slabs": "69",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Hungry Snorlax](/card/jat-617421)",
          "Set": "Japanese unnumbered promo",
          "Raw market": "$300",
          "PSA slabs": "20",
          "PSA 10s": "6",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[N](/card/jat-600954)",
          "Set": "BW2 Red Collection 071/066 (JP)",
          "Raw market": "$250",
          "PSA slabs": "1",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lucario](/card/jat-604763)",
          "Set": "Everyone's Exciting Battle 027/047 (JP)",
          "Raw market": "$240",
          "PSA slabs": "24",
          "PSA 10s": "16",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Sceptile](/card/pop4-5)",
          "Set": "[POP Series 4](/set/pop%20series%204) 5",
          "Raw market": "$230",
          "PSA slabs": "48",
          "PSA 10s": "4",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Metang](/card/np-23)",
          "Set": "Nintendo Black Star Promos 23",
          "Raw market": "$200",
          "PSA slabs": "85",
          "PSA 10s": "25",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Champions Festival](/card/xyp-XY27)",
          "Set": "XY Black Star Promos XY27",
          "Raw market": "$200",
          "PSA slabs": "93",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Scraggy](/card/2016xy-7)",
          "Set": "McDonald's Collection 2016 7",
          "Raw market": "$200",
          "PSA slabs": "3",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Vulpix](/card/2016xy-1)",
          "Set": "McDonald's Collection 2016 1",
          "Raw market": "$180",
          "PSA slabs": "9",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Darkrai ex](/card/me05-120)",
          "Set": "[ME05: Pitch Black](/set/me05%3A%20pitch%20black) 120",
          "Raw market": "$160",
          "PSA slabs": "35",
          "PSA 10s": "12",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Genesect](/card/bwp-BW86)",
          "Set": "BW Black Star Promos BW86",
          "Raw market": "$155",
          "PSA slabs": "25",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded",
          "365d move": "n/a"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Thin-registry cards above $100 that live outside our card catalog (no card page), by recorded raw market",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Product family",
        "Raw market",
        "PSA slabs",
        "PSA 10s"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "Gengar VMAX 157/264",
          "Product family": "Prize Pack Series",
          "Raw market": "$1,500",
          "PSA slabs": "69",
          "PSA 10s": "9"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Tropical Beach BW50 (Worlds 2012)",
          "Product family": "Black and White promos",
          "Raw market": "$850",
          "PSA slabs": "60",
          "PSA 10s": "3"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Tropical Beach BW28 (Worlds 2011) Staff",
          "Product family": "Black and White promos",
          "Raw market": "$800",
          "PSA slabs": "57",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Victini 43/101 Prerelease Staff",
          "Product family": "Black and White promos",
          "Raw market": "$591",
          "PSA slabs": "99",
          "PSA 10s": "4"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Tropical Wind DP05 (Worlds 2007)",
          "Product family": "Diamond and Pearl promos",
          "Raw market": "$575",
          "PSA slabs": "37",
          "PSA 10s": "1"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Ancient Mew, Japanese exclusive print",
          "Product family": "Miscellaneous",
          "Raw market": "$390",
          "PSA slabs": "14",
          "PSA 10s": "3"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Champions Festival XY27 (2014 Staff)",
          "Product family": "XY promos",
          "Raw market": "$375",
          "PSA slabs": "93",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Charizard VSTAR 018/172",
          "Product family": "Prize Pack Series",
          "Raw market": "$352",
          "PSA slabs": "93",
          "PSA 10s": "3"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Poliwhirl 37/95 League Promo Staff",
          "Product family": "League and Championship",
          "Raw market": "$350",
          "PSA slabs": "86",
          "PSA 10s": "25"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Poliwrath 21/95 League Promo Staff",
          "Product family": "League and Championship",
          "Raw market": "$350",
          "PSA slabs": "16",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Garchomp C 60/147 League Promo Staff",
          "Product family": "League and Championship",
          "Raw market": "$350",
          "PSA slabs": "57",
          "PSA 10s": "1"
        },
        {
          "Card": "Dragonair 52/146 State Championships Staff",
          "Product family": "League and Championship",
          "Raw market": "$330",
          "PSA slabs": "97",
          "PSA 10s": "5"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Median 365-day raw price move by registry band, within price tier (2,731 lines with a year of recorded curve)",
      "columns": [
        "Raw price tier",
        "Under 100 slabs",
        "100 to 999",
        "1,000 to 9,999",
        "10,000 or more"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Raw price tier": "Under $5",
          "Under 100 slabs": "+22% (n=702, 66% up)",
          "100 to 999": "+26% (n=416, 80% up)",
          "1,000 to 9,999": "+35% (n=67, 84% up)",
          "10,000 or more": "-8% (n=3, 33% up)"
        },
        {
          "Raw price tier": "$5 to $24.99",
          "Under 100 slabs": "+81% (n=162, 91% up)",
          "100 to 999": "+47% (n=454, 91% up)",
          "1,000 to 9,999": "+48% (n=156, 87% up)",
          "10,000 or more": "+22% (n=16, 69% up)"
        },
        {
          "Raw price tier": "$25 to $99.99",
          "Under 100 slabs": "+107% (n=134, 90% up)",
          "100 to 999": "+66% (n=240, 92% up)",
          "1,000 to 9,999": "+39% (n=133, 90% up)",
          "10,000 or more": "+13% (n=28, 71% up)"
        },
        {
          "Raw price tier": "$100 or more",
          "Under 100 slabs": "+188% (n=30, 97% up)",
          "100 to 999": "+113% (n=61, 95% up)",
          "1,000 to 9,999": "+40% (n=94, 91% up)",
          "10,000 or more": "+38% (n=35, 91% up)"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Thin (under 1,000 slabs) vs deep (1,000 or more), raw price $5 and up, by tier",
      "columns": [
        "Tier",
        "Registry",
        "n (365d)",
        "Median 365d",
        "Up 365d",
        "n (90d)",
        "Median 90d",
        "Up 90d",
        "Median slabs (365d sample)"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Tier": "$5 to $24.99",
          "Registry": "under 1,000 slabs",
          "n (365d)": "616",
          "Median 365d": "+51%",
          "Up 365d": "91%",
          "n (90d)": "691",
          "Median 90d": "+9%",
          "Up 90d": "80%",
          "Median slabs (365d sample)": "212"
        },
        {
          "Tier": "$5 to $24.99",
          "Registry": "1,000 slabs or more",
          "n (365d)": "172",
          "Median 365d": "+45%",
          "Up 365d": "85%",
          "n (90d)": "174",
          "Median 90d": "+1%",
          "Up 90d": "51%",
          "Median slabs (365d sample)": "2,119"
        },
        {
          "Tier": "$25 to $99.99",
          "Registry": "under 1,000 slabs",
          "n (365d)": "374",
          "Median 365d": "+77%",
          "Up 365d": "91%",
          "n (90d)": "365",
          "Median 90d": "+12%",
          "Up 90d": "84%",
          "Median slabs (365d sample)": "194"
        },
        {
          "Tier": "$25 to $99.99",
          "Registry": "1,000 slabs or more",
          "n (365d)": "161",
          "Median 365d": "+33%",
          "Up 365d": "87%",
          "n (90d)": "161",
          "Median 90d": "+4%",
          "Up 90d": "69%",
          "Median slabs (365d sample)": "3,666"
        },
        {
          "Tier": "$100 or more",
          "Registry": "under 1,000 slabs",
          "n (365d)": "91",
          "Median 365d": "+125%",
          "Up 365d": "96%",
          "n (90d)": "74",
          "Median 90d": "+16%",
          "Up 90d": "78%",
          "Median slabs (365d sample)": "198"
        },
        {
          "Tier": "$100 or more",
          "Registry": "1,000 slabs or more",
          "n (365d)": "129",
          "Median 365d": "+39%",
          "Up 365d": "91%",
          "n (90d)": "131",
          "Median 90d": "+8%",
          "Up 90d": "84%",
          "Median slabs (365d sample)": "4,192"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "PSA 10 sold median as a multiple of raw market, by registry band, raw price $5 and up",
      "columns": [
        "Registry band",
        "Cards with a PSA 10 median",
        "Median raw",
        "Median PSA 10",
        "Premium (median per-card multiple)"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Registry band": "Under 100 slabs",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 median": "86",
          "Median raw": "$8.95",
          "Median PSA 10": "$198",
          "Premium (median per-card multiple)": "21.6x"
        },
        {
          "Registry band": "100 to 999",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 median": "1,250",
          "Median raw": "$15.83",
          "Median PSA 10": "$250",
          "Premium (median per-card multiple)": "14.3x"
        },
        {
          "Registry band": "1,000 to 9,999",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 median": "1,086",
          "Median raw": "$27.05",
          "Median PSA 10": "$210",
          "Premium (median per-card multiple)": "8.4x"
        },
        {
          "Registry band": "10,000 or more",
          "Cards with a PSA 10 median": "264",
          "Median raw": "$64.12",
          "Median PSA 10": "$319",
          "Premium (median per-card multiple)": "4.3x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The ten least graded catalog cards among the 300 most expensive lines by raw market, after the PSA 9 contradiction test (stamped products in the same pool are thinner still, see the table above)",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Raw market",
        "PSA slabs",
        "PSA 10s"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Chimecho δ](/card/pop4-1)",
          "Set": "[POP Series 4](/set/pop%20series%204) 1",
          "Raw market": "$750",
          "PSA slabs": "95",
          "PSA 10s": "8"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mudkip](/card/np-5)",
          "Set": "Nintendo Black Star Promos 5",
          "Raw market": "$1,500",
          "PSA slabs": "159",
          "PSA 10s": "5"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Champions Festival](/card/xyp-XY176)",
          "Set": "XY Black Star Promos XY176",
          "Raw market": "$420",
          "PSA slabs": "159",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Rayquaza ex](/card/jat-709267)",
          "Set": "M6 Storm Emeralda 113/076 (JP)",
          "Raw market": "$1,070",
          "PSA slabs": "192",
          "PSA 10s": "163"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mew](/card/bwp-BW98)",
          "Set": "BW Black Star Promos BW98",
          "Raw market": "$500",
          "PSA slabs": "213",
          "PSA 10s": "not recorded"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Ultra Ball](/card/bw9-122)",
          "Set": "[Plasma Freeze](/set/plasma%20freeze) 122",
          "Raw market": "$708",
          "PSA slabs": "223",
          "PSA 10s": "23"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Espeon](/card/jat-576273)",
          "Set": "The Town on No Map 046/092 (JP)",
          "Raw market": "$400",
          "PSA slabs": "279",
          "PSA 10s": "101"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Gyarados](/card/xyp-XY60)",
          "Set": "XY Black Star Promos XY60",
          "Raw market": "$439",
          "PSA slabs": "283",
          "PSA 10s": "5"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Zoroark](/card/bw4-102)",
          "Set": "Next Destinies 102",
          "Raw market": "$400",
          "PSA slabs": "314",
          "PSA 10s": "11"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Paradise Resort](/card/svp-150)",
          "Set": "SVP Black Star Promos 150",
          "Raw market": "$598",
          "PSA slabs": "442",
          "PSA 10s": "95"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Thin usually means worthless, until it doesn't",
    "The most valuable cards almost nobody has graded",
    "In every price tier above $5, the thin registry won the year",
    "Where the tens are scarce, the ten is worth twenty cards",
    "The least graded cards among the 300 most valuable",
    "A registry of one slab and forty gem sales"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Universe: the 24,126 PSA population lines (keyed by TCGplayer product id) with a current raw market price as of 2026-09-13 UTC, using each line's most recent population snapshot (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-12; a PSA 10 count of zero is treated as absent and the latest snapshot carrying a count is used). Removed: 937 lines at 1,000 slabs or more whose totals agree within 1% and PSA 10 counts within 1.5% with a larger line (provider collisions; the larger is kept), and 79 lines whose verified PSA 10 sold count exceeds their recorded PSA 10 count (provider mismaps). Final: 23,110 lines. On review the mismap test was extended to the PSA 9 grade, which removes forty further lines and the three named in the section above; the named tables are built after that extension, the universe-wide counts are the published ones built before it, and the section says what the difference is. A blank in a PSA 10 column means no snapshot we hold carries a count for that line; it is never pooled as zero. Current price is the median of recorded daily marks over the ten complete days to 2026-09-12; 365-day and 90-day moves compare it to the median mark in a two-week window centred 365 and 90 days earlier, using our recorded weekly price curves merged with the daily canonical accretion; the 365-day sample is the 2,731 lines whose curves reach back a year (Sun & Moon 1,317, Sword & Shield 787, uncatalogued products 370, Black & White and XY 126, EX era 44, other 87) and is a survivor pool, as described in the callout. Price tiers use the current raw market; registry bands use the current slab count. Medians on even samples average the two middle values. The collision rule was applied at 1,000 slabs and above; below that, some lines that are variants of one promo (regular, Staff, placement) share a single population and appear once per line, which is why Champions Festival XY27 appears in both thin-registry tables. Current price is the market price of the flagship printing; for every card in the tables it equals the cheapest printing. PSA 10 premiums use the latest eBay sold median with at least three sales, from our graded snapshots, divided by the current raw market, over lines priced $5 and up. Table rows for cards outside the catalog carry the price dump's product name and have no card page. Recorded thin-market prices are printed as recorded and can rest on very few sales. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}