{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-mega-era-round-trip",
  "slug": "the-mega-era-round-trip",
  "title": "Launch, Mania, Markdown: the Mega Era on Our Own Tape",
  "summary": "Social media is full of graded-crash charts this week. Our raw-market tape tells the fuller story on five 2025-26 chase cards with deep recorded history: the Mega Hyper Rare Darkrai ex is down 55 percent from its July debut, Surging Sparks' SIR Pikachu ex is down 39 percent since January 2025, and yet Ascended Heroes' Pikachu ex still trades at double its launch price after giving back a quarter from its May peak.",
  "section": "Market structure",
  "published": "2026-09-07",
  "readMinutes": 7,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "-55.5%",
      "measures": "Mega Hyper Rare Darkrai ex since its July 15 debut",
      "basis": "$361.00 to $160.49"
    },
    {
      "value": "+105.6%",
      "measures": "Ascended Pikachu ex vs its February launch",
      "basis": "even after a -26.8% slide from the May peak"
    },
    {
      "value": "-39.0%",
      "measures": "Surging Sparks SIR Pikachu ex since Jan 2025",
      "basis": "the slow bleed nobody screenshots"
    },
    {
      "value": "-9.0%",
      "measures": "Prismatic Umbreon ex over 19 months",
      "basis": "after touching -49.7% on the way"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Raw market round trips",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "First recorded",
        "Peak",
        "Now",
        "vs peak",
        "vs first recorded"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Darkrai ex (Mega Hyper Rare)](/card/me05-120) · [Pitch Black](/set/pitch%20black)",
          "First recorded": "$361.00 (Jul 15)",
          "Peak": "$365.33 (Jul 16)",
          "Now": "$160.49",
          "vs peak": "-56.1%",
          "vs first recorded": "-55.5%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu ex](/card/sv08-238) · [Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)",
          "First recorded": "$474.56 (Jan 2025)",
          "Peak": "$474.56 (Jan 2025)",
          "Now": "$289.47",
          "vs peak": "-39.0%",
          "vs first recorded": "-39.0%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Pikachu ex](/card/me02.5-276) · [Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "First recorded": "$499.99 (Feb 1)",
          "Peak": "$1,404.92 (May 22)",
          "Now": "$1,027.80",
          "vs peak": "-26.8%",
          "vs first recorded": "+105.6%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/me02-125) · [Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "First recorded": "$850.00 (Nov 2025)",
          "Peak": "$922.58 (Nov 2025)",
          "Now": "$696.72",
          "vs peak": "-24.5%",
          "vs first recorded": "-18.0%"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Umbreon ex](/card/sv08.5-161) · [Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "First recorded": "$1,589.98 (Jan 2025)",
          "Peak": "$1,600.28 (Feb 2025)",
          "Now": "$1,447.14",
          "vs peak": "-9.6%",
          "vs first recorded": "-9.0%"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "Five round trips",
    "What the graded charts add, and what they miss"
  ],
  "method": [
    "All figures are moonstone's recorded raw TCGplayer market series, non-estimated points only, read on September 7, 2026: first recorded price, series maximum, and latest point, with percentages computed from those three values. FIRST RECORDED IS NOT ALWAYS LAUNCH. Four of the five series open within days of their set's release, but Surging Sparks released on November 8, 2024 and its Pikachu ex series opens in January 2025, so that row's last column measures from a first reading two and a half months into the card's life rather than from launch. Series depth varies and is disclosed by the dates shown: the five cards in the table hold 50 to 348 recorded points each. Other 2025-26 chases we track (including the SIR Mega Darkrai ex the viral posts feature, and Perfect Order's chases) entered our daily accretion only on August 30, 2026, so they have days of history rather than months and are excluded from round-trip claims rather than extrapolated. Graded-market comparisons reference the same cards' PSA 10 series where our graded tape holds them."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}