{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-multiple-ladder",
  "slug": "the-multiple-ladder",
  "title": "The Multiple Ladder: A Gem Premium Is Mostly a Statement About the Price Tag",
  "summary": "Across 306 cards carrying both a live raw price and a deep PSA 10 tape, the gem multiple falls from 16.02x in the $4 to $8 band to 2.63x above $256, and then stops falling. A PSA 10 price rises with only the 0.61 power of the raw price, which is why the multiple has to fall; price and grading difficulty together explain 74.5% of where a PSA 10 lands. Most of what the hobby calls a card's grading upside is arithmetic it shares with every other card at its price.",
  "section": "Data forensics",
  "published": "2026-09-02",
  "readMinutes": 8,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "306",
      "measures": "cards priced on both sides",
      "basis": "live raw price plus a PSA 10 median on 10+ verified comps"
    },
    {
      "value": "10.62x",
      "measures": "median multiple, $8 to $16 raw",
      "basis": "against 2.63x from $256 to $1,024"
    },
    {
      "value": "74.5%",
      "measures": "of a PSA 10 price explained",
      "basis": "by raw price and gem rate alone, 282-card fit"
    },
    {
      "value": "0.61",
      "measures": "elasticity of PSA 10 to raw price",
      "basis": "standard error 0.02, sixteen errors below 1"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Median PSA 10 multiple over raw, by raw price band (September 2, 2026)",
      "columns": [
        "Raw band",
        "Cards",
        "Median raw",
        "Median PSA 10",
        "Median multiple",
        "Median gem rate"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Raw band": "$4 to $8",
          "Cards": "13",
          "Median raw": "$5.22",
          "Median PSA 10": "$84.05",
          "Median multiple": "16.02x",
          "Median gem rate": "53.6%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$8 to $16",
          "Cards": "27",
          "Median raw": "$12.45",
          "Median PSA 10": "$131.09",
          "Median multiple": "10.62x",
          "Median gem rate": "49.9%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$16 to $32",
          "Cards": "34",
          "Median raw": "$23.92",
          "Median PSA 10": "$175.38",
          "Median multiple": "7.64x",
          "Median gem rate": "35.3%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$32 to $64",
          "Cards": "71",
          "Median raw": "$47.21",
          "Median PSA 10": "$230.00",
          "Median multiple": "5.09x",
          "Median gem rate": "36.9%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$64 to $128",
          "Cards": "55",
          "Median raw": "$86.61",
          "Median PSA 10": "$317.50",
          "Median multiple": "3.66x",
          "Median gem rate": "38.3%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$128 to $256",
          "Cards": "43",
          "Median raw": "$196.67",
          "Median PSA 10": "$498.00",
          "Median multiple": "2.70x",
          "Median gem rate": "49.5%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$256 to $512",
          "Cards": "30",
          "Median raw": "$344.07",
          "Median PSA 10": "$826.50",
          "Median multiple": "2.63x",
          "Median gem rate": "43.6%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$512 to $1,024",
          "Cards": "18",
          "Median raw": "$616.70",
          "Median PSA 10": "$1,699.24",
          "Median multiple": "2.63x",
          "Median gem rate": "49.8%"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$1,024 to $2,048",
          "Cards": "10",
          "Median raw": "$1,341.81",
          "Median PSA 10": "$3,767.76",
          "Median multiple": "2.77x",
          "Median gem rate": "47.9%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "What the two-variable fit expects a PSA 10 to pay",
      "columns": [
        "Raw price",
        "Gem rate 15%",
        "Gem rate 42%",
        "Gem rate 70%"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Raw price": "$10",
          "Gem rate 15%": "19.56x",
          "Gem rate 42%": "10.83x",
          "Gem rate 70%": "5.87x"
        },
        {
          "Raw price": "$50",
          "Gem rate 15%": "10.44x",
          "Gem rate 42%": "5.78x",
          "Gem rate 70%": "3.13x"
        },
        {
          "Raw price": "$200",
          "Gem rate 15%": "6.08x",
          "Gem rate 42%": "3.37x",
          "Gem rate 70%": "1.82x"
        },
        {
          "Raw price": "$1,000",
          "Gem rate 15%": "3.24x",
          "Gem rate 42%": "1.80x",
          "Gem rate 70%": "0.97x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "The 62 disclosed targets, by raw price band",
      "columns": [
        "Raw band",
        "Rated cards",
        "Median implied upside",
        "BUY calls"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Raw band": "$32 to $64",
          "Rated cards": "6",
          "Median implied upside": "+125.8%",
          "BUY calls": "6 of 6"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$64 to $128",
          "Rated cards": "7",
          "Median implied upside": "+110.6%",
          "BUY calls": "5 of 7"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$128 to $256",
          "Rated cards": "10",
          "Median implied upside": "+11.3%",
          "BUY calls": "2 of 10"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$256 to $512",
          "Rated cards": "23",
          "Median implied upside": "-4.2%",
          "BUY calls": "2 of 23"
        },
        {
          "Raw band": "$512 to $1,024",
          "Rated cards": "16",
          "Median implied upside": "-6.5%",
          "BUY calls": "2 of 16"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The ladder, rung by rung",
    "Two variables, and neither of them is your card",
    "The residual is the trade",
    "What our own target book says when you sort it by rung"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Cohort: the 306 cards in the moonstone report feature table on September 2, 2026 carrying a live raw price, a PSA 10 sold median, and at least 10 verified PSA 10 comps; 282 of those also carry a recorded PSA lifetime gem rate and form the regression sample. Bands are powers of two on raw price; bands holding fewer than 10 cards are computed but not shown, which removes four cells at the extremes, including a $1 to $2 band of exactly ONE card printing 33.33x and a $4,096 band of one printing 1.11x. A single-card band is not a rung and we do not headline one. Multiples divide a verified sold median by a raw market price, which is an ask, so every multiple here is flattered by the same construction described in [The Ask Is Lying to You](/articles/the-ask-is-lying-to-you). Two regressions are reported, both ordinary least squares on the same 282 cards and the same two regressors. The multiple-form fit (log of PSA-10-over-raw against log raw price and gem rate) is MECHANICALLY CONSTRAINED, because raw price appears in the dependent variable, so its price term cannot come out positive whatever the market does; it is shown only to be disclosed. The level-form fit (log PSA 10 median against log raw price and gem rate) is the honest test, and it is the one quoted: R-squared 59.7% on price alone, 16.7% on gem rate alone, 74.5% jointly, with coefficients 0.6099 (se 0.0242) on log raw price and -2.1898 (se 0.1723) on gem rate. The two fits describe the same fitted surface: moving log raw price across the equals sign shifts its coefficient by exactly one (-0.3901 becomes 0.6099) and leaves the intercept and the gem-rate term untouched, so the expectations table above is valid under either. What differs is the R-squared, and only the level-form figures mean anything. Explained variance is not a causal claim. Target counts come from the live report payloads on our book on September 2, 2026, 62 rated of 195; targets and upsides are the figures those dossiers print. Not financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}