{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-pull-rate-squeeze",
  "slug": "the-pull-rate-squeeze",
  "title": "The Big Hit Went From One Per Box to One Every Third Box",
  "summary": "In mid-2023, a Special Illustration Rare fell about once every 32 packs: better than one per booster box. By late 2024 the measured rate was one in 86 to 90 packs, thinning to 1 in 94 by mid-2025, and the Mega era runs one in 70 to 101. Same $4 packs, a third of the jackpots. Meanwhile the consolation prizes got more common. The studies that measured it, set by set.",
  "section": "Set economics",
  "published": "2026-09-07",
  "readMinutes": 6,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "1 in 32",
      "measures": "SIR rate, 2023 sets",
      "basis": "Scarlet & Violet base, Paldea Evolved, Obsidian Flames"
    },
    {
      "value": "1 in 86-94",
      "measures": "SIR rate, 2024-25 standard sets",
      "basis": "Temporal Forces onward"
    },
    {
      "value": "1.1 vs 0.4",
      "measures": "expected SIRs per 36-pack box, then vs now",
      "basis": null
    },
    {
      "value": "8,000+",
      "measures": "packs per study behind most of these rates",
      "basis": null
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "Special Illustration Rare odds by set, standard expansions in release order",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Released",
        "SIR odds (packs)",
        "Expected per box"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Scarlet & Violet](/set/scarlet%20&%20violet)",
          "Released": "Mar 2023",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 32",
          "Expected per box": "1.13"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "Released": "Jun 2023",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 32",
          "Expected per box": "1.13"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)",
          "Released": "Aug 2023",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 32",
          "Expected per box": "1.13"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[151](/set/151)",
          "Released": "Sep 2023",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 32",
          "Expected per box": "1.13"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paradox Rift](/set/paradox%20rift)",
          "Released": "Nov 2023",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 47",
          "Expected per box": "0.77"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)",
          "Released": "Mar 2024",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 86",
          "Expected per box": "0.42"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Released": "May 2024",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 86",
          "Expected per box": "0.42"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)",
          "Released": "Sep 2024",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 90",
          "Expected per box": "0.40"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)",
          "Released": "Nov 2024",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 87",
          "Expected per box": "0.41"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Released": "Mar 2025",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 86",
          "Expected per box": "0.42"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Released": "May 2025",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 94",
          "Expected per box": "0.38"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)",
          "Released": "Sep 2025",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 101",
          "Expected per box": "0.36"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Released": "Nov 2025",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 80",
          "Expected per box": "0.45"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "Released": "Jan 2026",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 70",
          "Expected per box": "0.51"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Released": "Mar 2026",
          "SIR odds (packs)": "1 in 81",
          "Expected per box": "0.44"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The squeeze, set by set",
    "The consolation got cheaper as the jackpot got rarer"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Every rate is a published measurement from TCGplayer Infinite's per-set pull-rate studies (typically 8,000+ packs; 700 to 5,000+ for special or recent sets), extracted verbatim; the 1-in-N figures are the studies' own rounded rates, and per-box expectations are 36 divided by N, rounded to two decimals. Release months are the sets' English release dates. The table carries the standard expansions, plus 151, whose 1 in 32 is the rate its 2023 neighbours measured. Four further sets carry a published SIR rate and are held out of it because they are special or subset releases printed and priced on their own terms: Paldean Fates (1 in 58, January 2024), Prismatic Evolutions (1 in 45, January 2025), and Black Bolt and White Flare (1 in 80 each, on a combined sample, July 2025). Each of the four is looser than the standard set beside it, which is the point the body makes about Prismatic Evolutions and holds in smaller degree for the other three. Shrouded Fable is omitted because TCGplayer published no study for it; its community-measured rate (1 in 64, sample 2,354 packs) is shown on its set page with its own attribution. Sources for every set are linked on the set pages under Pull rates."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}