{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-refusal-census",
  "slug": "the-refusal-census",
  "title": "The Refusal Census: We Scored 25,471 Cards and Declined to Rate 22,039 of Them",
  "summary": "Every card our target model touches gets one of two things: a price target, or a recorded reason why not. On September 19 the reasons outnumbered the targets 6.4 to 1. Here is the full census, including the era where we rate essentially nothing, the top of the market where we rate nothing at all, and the 24 rows where our own code failed to write down why it stayed quiet.",
  "section": "Methodology",
  "published": "2026-09-19",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "25,471",
      "measures": "cards scored on September 19, 2026",
      "basis": "the full modelled universe, English and Japanese"
    },
    {
      "value": "3,432",
      "measures": "received a price target",
      "basis": "13.5% of the cards we scored"
    },
    {
      "value": "22,039",
      "measures": "refused",
      "basis": "86.5%, of which 22,015 carry a recorded reason"
    },
    {
      "value": "3",
      "measures": "ratings across DP, HGSS and BW combined",
      "basis": "out of 3,260 cards scored in those three eras"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The full refusal census, September 19, 2026",
      "columns": [
        "Outcome",
        "Cards",
        "Share of the 25,471 scored",
        "What the gate is doing"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Outcome": "Below the $1.50 signal floor",
          "Cards": "11,458",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "45.0%",
          "What the gate is doing": "listing minimums and seller spreads swamp any real demand signal"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "Zero verified PSA 10 comps",
          "Cards": "8,024",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "31.5%",
          "What the gate is doing": "no graded tape at all to anchor a target"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "Fewer than 10 PSA 10 comps",
          "Cards": "1,776",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "7.0%",
          "What the gate is doing": "some tape, not enough of it: the bar is 10"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "Cohort multiple too far from market",
          "Cards": "651",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "2.6%",
          "What the gate is doing": "the borrowed multiple implies a value more than 2.5x from the ask"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "PSA 10 median fails the sanity band",
          "Cards": "90",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "0.4%",
          "What the gate is doing": "the graded median sits outside 0.85x to 40x of raw, so the comp pool is suspect"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "No usable reference cohort",
          "Cards": "16",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "0.1%",
          "What the gate is doing": "no group of 20+ comparable cards prices cards like this one"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "No reason recorded",
          "Cards": "24",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "0.1%",
          "What the gate is doing": "our bug, documented below"
        },
        {
          "Outcome": "Issued a price target",
          "Cards": "3,432",
          "Share of the 25,471 scored": "13.5%",
          "What the gate is doing": "HOLD 2,699 · BUY 416 · SELL 317"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Rating coverage by era, September 19, 2026",
      "columns": [
        "Era",
        "Cards scored",
        "Rated",
        "Coverage"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Era": "Japanese",
          "Cards scored": "4,975",
          "Rated": "1,257",
          "Coverage": "25.3%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Mega Evolution",
          "Cards scored": "853",
          "Rated": "202",
          "Coverage": "23.7%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Scarlet & Violet",
          "Cards scored": "3,496",
          "Rated": "740",
          "Coverage": "21.2%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Sword & Shield",
          "Cards scored": "3,565",
          "Rated": "625",
          "Coverage": "17.5%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Sun & Moon",
          "Cards scored": "2,813",
          "Rated": "291",
          "Coverage": "10.3%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "XY",
          "Cards scored": "1,683",
          "Rated": "98",
          "Coverage": "5.8%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "WotC",
          "Cards scored": "1,790",
          "Rated": "92",
          "Coverage": "5.1%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Other / unclassified",
          "Cards scored": "1,156",
          "Rated": "52",
          "Coverage": "4.5%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "EX era",
          "Cards scored": "1,880",
          "Rated": "72",
          "Coverage": "3.8%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Black & White",
          "Cards scored": "1,301",
          "Rated": "2",
          "Coverage": "0.2%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "HeartGold & SoulSilver",
          "Cards scored": "545",
          "Rated": "1",
          "Coverage": "0.2%"
        },
        {
          "Era": "Diamond & Pearl",
          "Cards scored": "1,414",
          "Rated": "0",
          "Coverage": "0.0%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Sanity-band failures, the high side",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Raw",
        "PSA 10 median",
        "Comps",
        "Multiple"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Vaporeon](/card/base2-28)",
          "Set": "[Jungle](/set/jungle)",
          "Raw": "$15.89",
          "PSA 10 median": "$707.50",
          "Comps": "25",
          "Multiple": "44.5x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Misdreavus](/card/basep-39)",
          "Set": "Wizards Black Star Promos",
          "Raw": "$9.89",
          "PSA 10 median": "$440.00",
          "Comps": "19",
          "Multiple": "44.5x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard G](/card/pl3-143)",
          "Set": "Supreme Victors",
          "Raw": "$450.72",
          "PSA 10 median": "$20,003.00",
          "Comps": "14",
          "Multiple": "44.4x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mewtwo EX](/card/xy8-61)",
          "Set": "[BREAKthrough](/set/breakthrough)",
          "Raw": "$12.45",
          "PSA 10 median": "$552.50",
          "Comps": "13",
          "Multiple": "44.4x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Magearna](/card/xyp-XY186)",
          "Set": "XY Black Star Promos",
          "Raw": "$29.21",
          "PSA 10 median": "$1,296.23",
          "Comps": "24",
          "Multiple": "44.4x"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Claydol](/card/me04-092)",
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Raw": "$1.60",
          "PSA 10 median": "$71.00",
          "Comps": "15",
          "Multiple": "44.4x"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Cards stalled just under the comp bar",
      "unit": " cards",
      "note": "Cards refused for having between five and nine verified PSA 10 sales. The bar is ten.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "5 comps",
          "value": 467,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "6 comps",
          "value": 401,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "7 comps",
          "value": 342,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "8 comps",
          "value": 303,
          "basis": null
        },
        {
          "label": "9 comps",
          "value": 263,
          "basis": null
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "Why 22,039 cards got nothing",
    "We have almost nothing to say about 2007 to 2013",
    "The most expensive cards we track are the ones we cannot rate",
    "Ninety cards where the graded median is not believable",
    "3,432 opinions, and most of them are 'do nothing'",
    "The 24 rows with no reason at all"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Source: our report_features table as of the September 19, 2026 build (25,471 rows, one per scored card). 'Rated' means a non-null target call; 'refused' means a recorded refusal string. Refusal strings are grouped by their generated prefix into the seven buckets shown, and the buckets plus the rated count sum exactly to 25,471. Raw prices are TCGplayer market values from our daily series; PSA 10 medians and comp counts are from our recorded graded sales tape, not provider estimates. Era buckets are our own classification of set names. Price bands are logarithmic bands of raw price; the '49 cards in the top three bands' figure covers bands 10 through 12. Target prices and upside percentages are model output as of that build and will move as comps accumulate; they are analysis, not measurements of the future, and nothing here is financial advice."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}