{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-rip-tax", "slug": "the-rip-tax", "title": "Pulling the Chase Costs 6x to 86x More Than Buying It", "summary": "Across sixteen sets where a large-sample study has measured pull rates and we track the booster box price, ripping packs until the set's priciest pull appears costs between 6.3x and 85.7x the card's market price. The median across the board is 26.1x. The famous trap is Evolving Skies: about $136,584 of packs for one alt-art Umbreon VMAX that sells for $2,298; the mathematical trap is Mega Evolution's gold Mega Lucario ex at 85.7x.", "section": "Set economics", "published": "2026-09-07", "readMinutes": 7, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "6.3x", "measures": "the cheapest rip tax on the board", "basis": "Phantasmal Flames, SIR Mega Charizard" }, { "value": "85.7x", "measures": "the dearest", "basis": "Mega Evolution, the gold Mega Lucario ex" }, { "value": "$136,584", "measures": "expected pack cost of one Moonbreon", "basis": "~2,000 packs at today's box price" }, { "value": "16", "measures": "sets with both a measured chase rate and a tracked box price", "basis": null } ], "tables": [ { "title": "The rip tax, set by set", "columns": [ "Set", "Chase", "Odds (packs)", "Pack cost", "Card price", "Rip tax" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)", "Chase": "[Mega Lucario ex (gold)](/card/me01-188)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 2,520*", "Pack cost": "$22,415", "Card price": "$261.69", "Rip tax": "85.7x" }, { "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)", "Chase": "[Mega Zygarde ex (gold)](/card/me03-124)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 1,786*", "Pack cost": "$8,641", "Card price": "$123.77", "Rip tax": "69.8x" }, { "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)", "Chase": "[Umbreon VMAX](/card/swsh7-215)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 2,000", "Pack cost": "$136,584", "Card price": "$2,298.34", "Rip tax": "59.4x" }, { "Set": "[Scarlet & Violet](/set/scarlet%20&%20violet)", "Chase": "[Gardevoir ex](/card/sv01-245)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 318", "Pack cost": "$2,612", "Card price": "$71.69", "Rip tax": "36.4x" }, { "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)", "Chase": "[Lillie's Clefairy ex](/card/sv09-184)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 518", "Pack cost": "$3,474", "Card price": "$103.96", "Rip tax": "33.4x" }, { "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)", "Chase": "[Pikachu ex](/card/sv08-238)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 960", "Pack cost": "$8,129", "Card price": "$289.41", "Rip tax": "28.1x" }, { "Set": "[Paradox Rift](/set/paradox%20rift)", "Chase": "[Groudon](/card/sv04-199)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 442*", "Pack cost": "$3,347", "Card price": "$119.71", "Rip tax": "28.0x" }, { "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)", "Chase": "[Gastly](/card/sv05-177)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 286*", "Pack cost": "$2,481", "Card price": "$94.98", "Rip tax": "26.1x" }, { "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)", "Chase": "[Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex](/card/sv10-231)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 1,033", "Pack cost": "$11,899", "Card price": "$465.81", "Rip tax": "25.5x" }, { "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)", "Chase": "[Greninja ex](/card/sv06-214)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 941", "Pack cost": "$9,033", "Card price": "$364.56", "Rip tax": "24.8x" }, { "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)", "Chase": "[Giratina V](/card/swsh11-186)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 804", "Pack cost": "$16,281", "Card price": "$832.41", "Rip tax": "19.6x" }, { "Set": "[Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)", "Chase": "[Charizard ex](/card/sv03-223)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 192", "Pack cost": "$1,951", "Card price": "$104.24", "Rip tax": "18.7x" }, { "Set": "[Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest)", "Chase": "[Lugia V](/card/swsh12-186)", "Odds (packs)": "1 in 674", "Pack cost": "$9,496", "Card price": "$527.13", "Rip tax": "18.0x" }, { "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)", "Chase": "[Magikarp](/card/sv02-203)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 468*", "Pack cost": "$6,099", "Card price": "$374.77", "Rip tax": "16.3x" }, { "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)", "Chase": "[Squirtle](/card/sv07-148)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 169*", "Pack cost": "$1,474", "Card price": "$114.90", "Rip tax": "12.8x" }, { "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)", "Chase": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/me02-125)", "Odds (packs)": "~1 in 400", "Pack cost": "$4,387", "Card price": "$696.72", "Rip tax": "6.3x" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "The table", "What the number is and is not" ], "method": [ "Pull rates are from published large-sample studies, chiefly TCGplayer Infinite's per-set pull-rate series (1,500 to 8,000+ packs per set; sources and sample sizes are shown on each set's page under Pull rates). Chase odds marked with * are derived as tier odds multiplied by the tier's card count, uniform within the slot; unmarked odds are the study's own measured specific-card rate. Card prices are moonstone canonical prices and box prices are the exact tracked 36-pack SKU, both as of September 7, 2026. Expected pack cost = expected packs x (box price / 36). With sixteen rows the median rip tax quoted is the upper-middle value, 26.1x; the lower-middle is 25.5x. Sets without a measured study or a tracked box are excluded, not estimated; The Pokemon Company publishes no official odds." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }