{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-round-number-tell",
  "slug": "the-round-number-tell",
  "title": "A $500.00 Card Is Three Times More Likely to Be Nobody's Price",
  "summary": "Of 920 English cards over $100, the 192 whose price ends in .00 or .99 sat completely still for a month at 53%. The rest did it at 18%. And when a round price finally moved, it moved 13%.",
  "section": "Research",
  "published": "2026-10-04",
  "readMinutes": 6,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [
    {
      "value": "52.6%",
      "measures": "of round prices never moved a cent",
      "basis": "101 of 192 cards"
    },
    {
      "value": "17.7%",
      "measures": "of every other price did the same",
      "basis": "129 of 728 cards"
    },
    {
      "value": "13.3%",
      "measures": "median first move off a round price",
      "basis": "against 1.24% off the rest"
    }
  ],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": "The dearest prices that did not move a cent in 26 readings",
      "columns": [
        "Card",
        "Set",
        "Price, every day"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Card": "[Mew Star](/card/ex15-101) 101",
          "Set": "Dragon Frontiers",
          "Price, every day": "$3,500.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Lugia ex](/card/ex10-105) 105",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Price, every day": "$2,500.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Rocket's Mewtwo](/card/bog-8) 8",
          "Set": "Best of Game",
          "Price, every day": "$2,400.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Raikou Star](/card/ex10-114) 114",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Price, every day": "$1,600.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Mudkip](/card/np-5) 5",
          "Set": "Nintendo Black Star Promos",
          "Price, every day": "$1,500.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Shining Charizard](/card/neo4-107) 107",
          "Set": "Neo Destiny",
          "Price, every day": "$1,495.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Gengar ex](/card/ex6-108) 108",
          "Set": "FireRed & LeafGreen",
          "Price, every day": "$1,399.99"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Charizard](/card/bw8-136) 136",
          "Set": "Plasma Storm",
          "Price, every day": "$1,150.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Suicune Star](/card/ex10-115) 115",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Price, every day": "$1,100.00"
        },
        {
          "Card": "[Entei Star](/card/ex10-113) 113",
          "Set": "Unseen Forces",
          "Price, every day": "$1,067.00"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [
    {
      "title": "Share of cards whose price never changed, by price band",
      "unit": "%",
      "note": "26 readings, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-04. Round means the price ended in .00 or .99 on the first day.",
      "points": [
        {
          "label": "$100 to $250, round",
          "value": 46.3,
          "basis": "37 of 80"
        },
        {
          "label": "$100 to $250, other",
          "value": 16.8,
          "basis": "82 of 489"
        },
        {
          "label": "$250 to $500, round",
          "value": 58.2,
          "basis": "32 of 55"
        },
        {
          "label": "$250 to $500, other",
          "value": 18.5,
          "basis": "31 of 168"
        },
        {
          "label": "$500 to $1,000, round",
          "value": 60,
          "basis": "18 of 30"
        },
        {
          "label": "$500 to $1,000, other",
          "value": 23.6,
          "basis": "13 of 55"
        },
        {
          "label": "Over $1,000, round",
          "value": 51.9,
          "basis": "14 of 27"
        },
        {
          "label": "Over $1,000, other",
          "value": 18.8,
          "basis": "3 of 16"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sections": [
    "Why this happens",
    "And when they break",
    "What this measure is not"
  ],
  "method": [
    "Window 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-04 inclusive, which begins at PRICE_RULE_EPOCH_DAY (day 20703), so every reading is comparable. price_history joined to cards on tcg_id, lang 'en', one row per TCGplayer product id (21,449 distinct ids in the catalog; 21,245 priced on every comparable day). 1,357,159 readings in the window. Two days, 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-25, repeat the previous day on more than 97% of cards and are dropped as republished files, leaving 26 readings. A card is in the $100 group when its price on 2026-09-07 was $100 or more: 920 cards. Round means the price on that day ended in .00 or .99: 192 cards. Frozen means all 26 readings are the identical number. The first move is the first reading that differs from the one before it. Medians are the upper middle value on an even sample. Every figure here is printed by scripts/the-round-number-tell-figures.mts."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}