{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/the-thirtieth-celebration-pull-rates", "slug": "the-thirtieth-celebration-pull-rates", "title": "Nobody Has Published Odds for 30th Celebration, and the Numbers Filling the Gap Disagree by 63% on the Only Tier That Matters", "summary": "The Pokémon Company published no pull rates for this set in either language, and TCGplayer ran no study. Every figure in circulation is a community count. Those counts agree closely on the tiers that decide nothing: a double rare about 1 in 4 packs, an illustration rare about 1 in 5, a Classic Collection reprint about 1 in 10, a special illustration rare about 1 in 19. On the Futuristic rare tier, the two cards the whole set is priced around, they range from 1 in 82 to 1 in 134. We put the set into our pull-rate table with that disagreement written into it rather than averaged away, because it is the difference between chasing Mew ex for $3,128 and chasing it for $5,112, against $1,289.90 to simply buy the card.", "section": "Data forensics", "published": "2026-09-16", "readMinutes": 8, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "0", "measures": "official odds published for this set", "basis": "in either language, before or after the September 16, 2026 release" }, { "value": "2", "measures": "Futuristic rares in the whole set", "basis": "Mew ex and Mewtwo ex, the tier the set is priced around" }, { "value": "1 in 82 to 1 in 134", "measures": "community estimates for that tier", "basis": "a 63% spread across four published counts" }, { "value": "$1,289.90", "measures": "to buy Mew ex outright today", "basis": "against $3,128 to $5,112 of packs to expect to pull it" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "30th Celebration, confirmed structure", "columns": [ "Element", "Confirmed" ], "rows": [ { "Element": "English pack", "Confirmed": "5 foil cards plus a foil basic energy" }, { "Element": "Japanese pack", "Confirmed": "6 foil cards, a different structure from the English pack" }, { "Element": "Guaranteed in every pack", "Confirmed": "one Pikachu from a 30-card subset, plus the energy" }, { "Element": "Base set", "Confirmed": "103 cards" }, { "Element": "Illustration rares", "Confirmed": "20 cards" }, { "Element": "Special illustration rares", "Confirmed": "10 cards" }, { "Element": "Futuristic rares", "Confirmed": "2 cards, Mew ex and Mewtwo ex" }, { "Element": "Classic Collection reprints", "Confirmed": "30 cards" }, { "Element": "Booster box", "Confirmed": "none; the pack SKU is a 6-pack Booster Bundle" } ] }, { "title": "Community pull-rate counts, 30th Celebration", "columns": [ "Tier", "652-pack count", "420-pack count", "Agreement" ], "rows": [ { "Tier": "Holo Pikachu", "652-pack count": "every pack", "420-pack count": "every pack", "Agreement": "guaranteed slot" }, { "Tier": "Double rare (ex)", "652-pack count": "1 in 4.6", "420-pack count": "1 in 4", "Agreement": "within a pack" }, { "Tier": "Illustration rare", "652-pack count": "1 in 5.4", "420-pack count": "1 in 5", "Agreement": "within a pack" }, { "Tier": "Classic Collection reprint", "652-pack count": "1 in 10", "420-pack count": "not reported", "Agreement": "one source" }, { "Tier": "Special illustration rare", "652-pack count": "1 in 18", "420-pack count": "1 in 19", "Agreement": "within a pack" }, { "Tier": "Futuristic rare", "652-pack count": "1 in 82", "420-pack count": "1 in 105", "Agreement": "28% apart" } ] }, { "title": "Expected cost of pulling Mew ex, by which community rate you believe", "columns": [ "If the tier is", "A specific Futuristic rare is", "At $19.07 a pack (bundle)", "At $19.57 a pack (single)" ], "rows": [ { "If the tier is": "1 in 82 packs", "A specific Futuristic rare is": "1 in 164 packs", "At $19.07 a pack (bundle)": "$3,128", "At $19.57 a pack (single)": "$3,209" }, { "If the tier is": "1 in 100 packs", "A specific Futuristic rare is": "1 in 200 packs", "At $19.07 a pack (bundle)": "$3,815", "At $19.57 a pack (single)": "$3,914" }, { "If the tier is": "1 in 105 packs", "A specific Futuristic rare is": "1 in 210 packs", "At $19.07 a pack (bundle)": "$4,006", "At $19.57 a pack (single)": "$4,110" }, { "If the tier is": "1 in 134 packs", "A specific Futuristic rare is": "1 in 268 packs", "At $19.07 a pack (bundle)": "$5,112", "At $19.57 a pack (single)": "$5,245" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "What is actually confirmed", "Where the counts agree", "Where they do not, and why it is the only row that matters", "What the disagreement costs you", "The sealed market's own answer", "What we changed" ], "method": [ "Pull-rate figures are community pack-opening counts, not a published study, and not official odds: The Pokémon Company published no rarity odds for this set in either language before or after its September 16, 2026 worldwide release, and TCGplayer Infinite ran no study for it. Two counts publishing a full tier breakdown with a stated sample size are used: one of 652 packs compiled from several openings (201, 124, 100, 76, 58 and 33-pack sessions plus smaller ones) and one of 420 packs whose own publisher writes that it may not be accurate or reliable. Two further Futuristic rare figures, 1 in 100 and 1 in 134, come from a separately reported 750-pack community tracking effort and are included in the quoted range but not in the tier table. THE SAMPLES MAY NOT DESCRIBE THE SAME PHYSICAL PRODUCT: the Japanese pack holds 6 foil cards and the English pack 5 foil cards plus a foil basic energy, and the 652-pack count is dated two months before the English release, so it cannot have been measured on English packs. Whether seeding is shared between printings is untested. The specific-card derivation doubles the tier rate on the assumption that the tier's two cards are evenly seeded, which no source confirms. Sealed prices, the 47-SKU count and the 30-day changes are moonstone's own sealed tracking read on September 16, 2026; the set released that same day worldwide, so the whole 30-day window sits before release and its prices are preorder and early-allocation asks, never sold prices; card prices are TCGplayer market and low prices read the same day. Expected chase costs are the expected pack count multiplied by a pack price and are gross: they do not credit the value of everything else opened along the way, which is real and is discussed in the body. Phantasmal Flames figures come from the TCGplayer Infinite study already carried in our pull-rate table (5,000+ packs) and our own page's derivation from it." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }